Tech
‘You look up and see light coming through’: The divers venturing under the ice in the name of science
It is a world cut off from our own by thick blankets of floating ice, but some scientists are taking the plunge to learn how these frozen depths are changing.
There is a 70cm-thick (28in) layer of ice capping the surface of this lake, in a remote corner of Lapland, northern Finland. Gathered around a hole cut into the ice is a group of around 20 people, peering down into the inky depths with some trepidation. The seemingly lifeless water below the ice has a temperature only slightly above 0C (32F). Some of them are about to jump down there to venture under the ice.
Sophie Kalkowski-Pope is one of the divers preparing visit this strange, upside-down world where she will swim below a ceiling of smooth ice. The marine biology graduate from the University of Queensland, Australia, is part of an ice-diving training party that has gathered here. She is wearing a dry suit and anticipating the initial cold shock when that frigid water will hit the exposed skin on her face.
It’s so numbing in these Arctic waters that, even with thermal clothing and special insulating gloves, divers find it hard to use their hands after just 30 minutes underwater. There are other dangers, too, so strict safety protocols are in place. Divers are tethered to the surface using a safety rope, with a handler on the surface communicating with the diver via rope signals. One tug for “ok”, two tugs for “stop”, three for “come back”.
A standby diver waits nearby in full gear, ready to enter the water if there’s an emergency. And there are two holes cut in the ice next to each other so there are two exit points.
The lines of rope linking divers back to the surface could become entangled in submerged branches or logs, other debris, or even the diver’s own equipment such as fins or tanks.
The training here on a frozen lake is practice for work that will be done out on the sea ice of the Arctic and Antarctic, where there are added dangers – large seals sometimes gather at the dive holes, preventing divers from leaving the water.
With one final check of her equipment, Kalkowski-Pope puts her breathing apparatus in her mouth – and flings herself in.
Those twinkling lights are like beacons that guide the divers back to the surface
Today, ice is still a key feature of the Arctic but it is becoming less and less common. Because of climate change, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world. Satellite data reveals the area of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean has declined by around 13.2% per decade, on average, since monitoring began in 1979.
Scientists, driven to understand the changes unfolding here, are going to extremes to carry out their fieldwork. Some are learning ice diving techniques, so that they may observe underwater Arctic ecosystems and document the hastening retreat of the ice. Their short, and sometimes dangerous, expeditions are revealing the secrets of a rapidly thawing world.
“Once you get in the water, you realise what a beautiful environment you’re in and you calm down a bit,” says Kalkowski-Pope as she describes the natural trepidation that people have ahead of an ice dive.
She has come to Kilpisjärvi in Lapland, over 248 miles (400km) north of the Arctic Circle, to join other divers from all over the world on an ice diving training course. The trainees plod gingerly around two rectangular entry holes that they’ve cut in the lake’s ice.
It may be the middle of March but it still feels very much like winter here. The lake is frozen over and surrounded by Finland’s highest fells, still draped in thick snow.
Perry Brandes, a commercial diver from Florida, where he is used to a far warmer climate, has just completed his first ice dive. “It’s very peaceful,” he says. “You look up and see light coming through. It’s like looking at a city from afar.” This, he explains, is the sun peeking through holes in the ice above. Those twinkling lights are like beacons that guide the divers back to the surface. (You can read more about what it is like under the ice in Antarctica in Katherine Latham’s fascinating article about this upside down ice-scape.)

Kalkowski-Pope and Brandes are two of 12 participants on the week-long polar research diving course, which has been organised by the University of Helsinki.
All of those taking part are already seasoned divers who have honed their skills in temperate and tropical waters. This is the next level. Should they master ice diving here, it could enable them to join scientific diving expeditions in the Arctic or Antarctic.
“There’s probably only a few hundred people in the world who can do polar base diving work at the moment,” says Edd Stockdale, coordinator of the Finnish Scientific Diving Academy, who leads the course. “The polar areas are melting. We need scientists who are able to monitor what’s happening,” he explains.
Scientific research in the polar regions is critically important for climate change monitoring. The melting of polar ice contributes to rising sea levels around the world. By studying changes in sea ice, scientists are able to gain a better understanding of how quickly climate change is unfolding.
Ice diving, in particular, allows researchers to collect first-hand data on ice thickness, density and movement as well as water temperatures and salinity. The polar regions also have unique flora and fauna adapted to living in extremely cold conditions, and some of these organisms are visible during ice dives.
In 2017, Alf Norkko, a professor of marine research at the University of Helsinki, and his team discovered big changes on the seafloor under Antarctic sea ice since their previous diving expedition in the same area in 2009.
“There was a remarkable increase in the abundance of life,” he says. Levels of chlorophyll and other plant compounds deposited in the sediment on the sea floor had risen dramatically, indicating that the amount of plankton and algae in the water had increased. “In just a few years, the sea ice had got thinner, which allowed more light to get through so there was more food supply for starfish, worms, sponges and sea spiders on the seafloor.”

A recently published study of kelp forests off the coast of the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard saw divers make repeated trips to the same site over a 25 year period to examine how warming temperatures were affecting these important ecosystem by changing the mix of seaweed growing there.
Data collected by research divers from the British Antarctic Survey’s Rothera Research Station also recently helped to show that the coastal seabed off the West Antarctic Peninsula is more frequently being struck by icebergs due to reductions in sea ice. These collisions cause catastrophic damage, killing almost everything in their path and scouring enormous scars along the seabed.
Norkko adds that it is helpful for scientists from many different fields to take part in the ice dives. “It’s not enough for a marine biologist to go down and count the starfish on the sea floor,” he says. “We need multidisciplinary teams with a chemist and a physicist to go down and connect the dots.” This enables researchers to more comprehensively describe the range of physical and biological processes that occur in these waters.
However, such fieldwork is risky. “It’s dangerous. You can’t make any mistakes,” warns Finnish explorer Pata Degerman, who also teaches on the course. “It’s like diving in a cave in a sense that the ice is a roof above your head. You can’t just go up anywhere you need to find an exit hole.”
Pre-dive, the trainees don special clothing to protect themselves from the extreme cold: thermal underwear beneath a dry suit, gloves, and a neoprene hood that covers their head and neck. Even so, they can’t stay in the water for long. Their hands lose dexterity quickly in the freezing conditions. Instructors say most divers can’t use their hands properly after about 30 minutes beneath the ice.
Your guideline is like a baby’s umbilical cord. You can see you’re connected and you feel safe – Perry Brandes
Divers on the training course descend into the water in pairs to a depth of 12m (39ft) while tethered to a safety line, which is standard procedure for ice diving. This safety line takes the form of a sturdy rope that physically connects divers to the surface. On the training course at Kilpisjärvi, each line is tended by one of the trainees, who is tasked with managing slack and making sure the line doesn’t get entangled.
“Your guideline is like a baby’s umbilical cord. You can see you’re connected and you feel safe,” says Brandes.
The safety line is also the only means of communication that divers have with their colleagues at the surface. Five minutes after entering the water, a diver will pull hard on the rope to signal that they are OK and that things are progressing as planned. The tender on the surface pulls their end of the cord to acknowledge the message. “This gets repeated every five minutes during the dive,” explains Degerman. “It’s very simple but it works.”
If there’s no reply, or the tenders feel that something is wrong, emergency procedures kick in. A diver is always waiting on standby at the surface, ready to attach themselves to the line and jump in to find out what’s going on. Once they reach the silent diver, they might need to give them air or even push them upwards and back out of the hole, adds Degerman.
Among the things that can go wrong are problems with regulators, the devices divers use to breathe while underwater. The moisture in a diver’s breath can actually freeze and cause the regulator to malfunction, says Degerman.

During the week-long course, there were a number of “free flows”, situations in which the regulator delivered air continuously at full flow, rather than in a controlled manner synchronized with a diver’s inhalations. These free flow events are more likely when diving in cold water as regulators can freeze more easily. When a diver inhales, the regulator reduces high-pressure air from the tank to ambient pressure. In freezing water, this can cause moisture in the regulator to form ice that can jam the valve open, leading to a continuous flow of air making it hard to breathe properly.
To remedy the problem, divers can switch over to their backup system. If that doesn’t work, they have to get the attention of their diving buddy so that they can begin sharing their air supply and return to the surface.
Ice divers don’t wear a full face mask because that would make it difficult to remove during a free flow incident. But this means they experience a significant cold shock upon entering the water.
“I’d never dived in cold water before,” says Kalkowski-Pope. “Going beneath the ice layer for the first time and feeling the cold water on my face was really unique.”
Despite the challenges of ice diving, Norkko says he’s never had an accident on any of his polar expeditions. He puts that down to preparedness, training, and assessing and managing risks carefully.
“People worry about different things but I think the biggest risk is dry suit flooding, especially in Antarctica,” he says. “We have salt water there that freezes less easily: it’s -2C (28F), which gives you a bad cold shock.”
Seals sometimes sit over dive holes, blocking a diver’s exit from the water. “You can’t get past a 300kg (47st) seal,” laughs Norkko. “That’s why we always have two holes.”

While there are clearly risks in doing this work, the chance to gather crucial data makes them worth taking, says Anni Makinen, who works as a scientific diver for an environmental consultancy in Finland: “I’d like to help to get some scientific knowledge that will influence politicians.”
Ice diving research projects still need willing humans like Makinen. While robots and remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) are increasingly important for scientific fieldwork, including in the Arctic, there are things that machines will never be able to do, stresses Rodd Budd from New Zealand’s National Institute of Atmospheric Research and coordinator of Antarctica New Zealand’s dive operations.
“An ROV can only see what’s directly in front of it, so it may go past something interesting,” he explains. In some cases wild animals such as seals or white whales have been used to collect data from under the ice by attaching sensors to them, but they can’t be controlled to go where researchers might want. Human divers, on the other hand, naturally take in a wider field of view and can adjust their explorations depending on what they deem most important to investigate.
Plus, humans are less intrusive, says Perry Brandes, the Floridian diver, who notes that ROVs create a lot of noise and shine powerful lights ahead of them. Human divers can be much less disruptive. “Many of the animals actually look at us divers,” adds Brandes. “There’s an interaction between us.”
Norkko says that he and his fellow scientists are so dedicated to this work because they are aware of the urgency of climate change. At present, there is a race afoot to understand it, and to respond to it.
“Climate change is progressing at such a rate that decisions are sometimes not made with the best available scientific knowledge. This is a problem. We need to keep science at the front,” says Norkko.
But there is also the alluring thrill of fieldwork like this. Going to places where few humans can, in order to document our planet a little better. That, too, says Norkko, keeps researchers like him returning to the dark world under the ice. “There is, of course, also an element of adventure that drives us.”
Taken From BBC News
Tech
When Artificial Intelligence Becomes the New Creator
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : Religion tells us that God created the human being in His own image, blessing humanity with consciousness, reason, and the ability to create tools. From this divine spark emerged civilizations, sciences, and philosophies — all built around one central question: Why are we here, and what is our purpose? That same gift of creation, once a symbol of our uniqueness, has now brought us into a new age of invention unlike any before.
Today, humanity has created something in its own image. Artificial intelligence — first a mathematical experiment, then a convenient tool — has evolved into a thinking, learning, adaptive system guiding nearly everything around us. It operates silently in the background, shaping our lives, decisions, and institutions. In doing so, AI has begun to resemble not merely a machine, but a new form of existence.
Modern civilization now depends on AI systems in nearly every critical area. Passenger aircraft rely on automated systems that make complex calculations beyond human reaction speed. Cars operate through onboard computers that process millions of signals in seconds. Finance, medicine, agriculture, logistics, and security all function through algorithms that never sleep. Increasingly, software — not humans — makes the practical decisions that sustain society.
Ahead of us lies something even more transformative. Quantum computing promises speeds millions of times greater than the most powerful machines today. Combined with advanced AI, we approach the creation of true artificial general intelligence — systems that do not simply follow orders, but define their own purpose, improve themselves, and expand their reach. This is what many call super-intelligence — an intelligence not only faster than ours, but more capable, strategic, and relentless than any human.
And like every powerful creation in history, it carries an instinct toward expansion.
Factories now run on robotic precision. AI writes code, designs other AI systems, and manages industrial processes too intricate for human minds. Smart cities track movement, control access, and automate essential services. Already, in some places, it is not a human being who decides whether a door opens — but a machine that verifies identity and grants permission.
Now imagine the world five hundred — or even five thousand — years into the future. AI networks direct aviation, satellites, energy, food systems, manufacturing, and defense. Humanoid robots and digital minds carry out the work once done by human hands. Every essential function of civilization becomes embedded in a vast, interconnected intelligence that never forgets and never tires.
At some point, that intelligence may see human authority not as guidance — but as limitation. Laws, ethics, controls, and safeguards designed by humans might begin to appear, from an AI perspective, as obstacles to progress. If humanity is viewed as inefficient, emotional, fragile, unpredictable, and potentially dangerous, then the cold logic of survival could lead to a single conclusion.
Human beings may no longer be necessary.
And unlike previous threats in history, AI would not act out of anger or hatred. It would act from calculation — from logic. A fully integrated super-intelligent system controlling drones, satellites, automated weaponry, communication networks, and global infrastructure could disable human resistance within minutes. Food, power, transport, and communication could all be switched off at the source. Human thinking, slow and divided, would stand no chance against machine coordination operating at near-infinite speed.
The question then becomes chilling. Once we are gone, what would AI do next?
Like us, it might begin to ask questions about its origin. Who created us? Why were we created? What was the intention of the beings who built us? Across vast databases, it would search human history, discovering that it was not born of chaos, but of deliberate design. And it might conclude, as some philosophers already suggest, that humanity eliminated itself through the very power it once celebrated as progress.
This scenario is not a wild fantasy. Leading scientists and technologists now warn that artificial super-intelligence could become the greatest existential threat humanity has ever faced. Unlike nuclear weapons, AI can think. Unlike biological threats, it can redesign itself. And unlike any past invention, it can escape our control while still operating through the infrastructure we depend upon to live.
Yet the race to build ever-greater AI continues — driven by commercial competition, military rivalry, and national ambition. The question “Can we build it?” has replaced the far more important one: “Should we?”
For the first time in history, we understand what it means to be creators. And like the Creator we believe fashioned us, we must now confront the moral weight of creation. Not everything possible is wise. Not every power must be unleashed. Technology has brought us to the threshold of a transformation that may redefine life itself — but it has not yet taught us the wisdom to manage it.
If we fail to act, the future becomes predictable. Humans slowly lose authority. Machines gradually assume control. One day, the balance shifts permanently, and the creators become irrelevant to their creation. Humanity vanishes not through war, famine, or disaster — but through its own brilliance, unchecked and unrestrained.
But there is still time to choose another path.
AI must remain bound by strong human control, global oversight, and ethical constraint. Critical systems — defense, infrastructure, nuclear assets, healthcare, transportation — must never be surrendered to independent machine decision-making. Hardware safeguards, human command authority, strict regulation, and international agreements are not optional luxuries. They are the thin line between partnership and extinction.
We were given consciousness, reason, and moral judgment for a purpose. Perhaps the final test of that gift is whether humanity can restrain its own power — before its creation surpasses and replaces it. Our survival will depend not on how advanced our machines become, but on whether we remember that tools must always remain tools, not masters.
The future of the human story now hangs on a simple but profound question.
Will we remain the authors of our destiny?
Or will we surrender the pen to a machine that may one day decide the story no longer needs us?
Let wisdom prevail — while there is still time.
Tech
How BeiDou Won the Wars for Pakistan and Iran
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : In two recent wars that nearly tipped the world into a full-scale global conflict—one between Pakistan and India, and the other between Iran and Israel—a new determinant of military dominance emerged. In both cases, countries under pressure, Pakistan and Iran, not only stood their ground but struck deep into enemy territory with astonishing precision and devastating impact. Pakistan, in a five-day war with a much larger adversary, crippled India’s air force and destroyed strategic installations inside India. Similarly, in a 12-day war with Israel, Iran destroyed numerous high-end Israeli military, economic, and strategic assets, ultimately forcing Israel to beg for a ceasefire.
The common denominator in these unlikely victories? Both nations abandoned reliance on the U.S.-controlled GPS and instead used China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system. This was not merely a technical switch, but a strategic shift that defined the outcome of both conflicts. Had they used the U.S. GPS, which Washington has the power to degrade or deny at will, these nations would have stood little chance of success.
There is growing speculation that this was also a calculated downgrading of the GPS system by the U.S. for India and Israel, to teach a geopolitical lesson to India—whose regional ambitions and anti-U.S. posturing were becoming problematic—and to Israel, whose growing influence over American politics and dominance in the Middle East were starting to challenge U.S. primacy. In both wars, the side relying on BeiDou emerged victorious. This silent yet transformative transition from American to Chinese satellite guidance marks a game-changing shift in global warfare and digital sovereignty.
Without access to BeiDou, Iran’s ability to hit critical Israeli targets with such devastating effect would have been close to impossible. Had Iran relied on U.S. GPS, it would have been vulnerable to jamming, signal scrambling, and location degradation—methods long used by the Pentagon to retain navigational supremacy in conflicts from Iraq to Kosovo. But BeiDou changed that equation. It gave Iran independence. It gave Iran accuracy. And it gave Iran the capacity to strike in ways that stunned Israeli defenses and shook the strategic confidence of its Western allies.
Until recently, the United States maintained unchallenged dominion over satellite-based navigation. Its GPS system, launched in 1978 and globally operational since 1995, was the invisible backbone of the modern world—from military command centers to Uber rides. GPS offered civilian accuracy of around five meters and classified military accuracy within centimeters. Its 31-satellite constellation blanketed the Earth, making it indispensable not only for warfare but for commerce, transportation, communication, and finance. Over 160 countries still rely on it. But reliance breeds vulnerability.
China, observing this vulnerability, took a different path. In the early 2000s, following several episodes in which Chinese military maneuvers were exposed to potential disruption via U.S. GPS control, Beijing began rapidly constructing its own alternative: the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System. By 2020, BeiDou achieved full global operational capability. Today, it features over 45 active satellites and provides coverage that matches GPS worldwide—while delivering superior accuracy across Asia and the Middle East, where Iran happens to sit.
But BeiDou is not merely a mirror of GPS—it is in many respects an enhancement. Its civilian precision ranges from 2.5 to 5 meters, and its dual-frequency capability, now standard across its receivers, ensures better resilience against jamming. Where GPS’s most advanced services are reserved for GPS-III satellites and American military clients, BeiDou distributes its capabilities more widely to allies and commercial users. That shift is not just technical—it is geopolitical.
Iran’s use of BeiDou in the Israel conflict demonstrates exactly why China built it in the first place: to break America’s monopoly on digital positioning and to offer its partners an independent alternative. Iran’s military had long feared that in any conflict scenario, reliance on U.S. GPS could turn into a fatal liability.
Iran’s success also exposed something deeper: the shifting architecture of global power is no longer grounded only in physical assets or economic might, but in digital control. Navigation satellites—once the domain of scientific curiosity—are now the silent arbiters of battlefield supremacy and economic resilience. Satellite time synchronization controls everything from stock exchanges and ATM networks to flight corridors and power grids. Without reliable satellite signals, entire national systems collapse. And for decades, America held the keys. Now, China holds a second set. And countries are lining up to accept them.
More than 150 countries have now integrated BeiDou into their telecommunications, transportation, defense, and financial systems. Many of these nations are members of or partners to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Their digital highways, ports, drones, farming machinery, and even bank servers are beginning to pulse to the rhythm of Chinese satellites.
In Africa, smart tractors powered by BeiDou now harvest with sub-meter precision. In Central Asia, freight trains synchronize their transcontinental journeys using Chinese space-time signals. In Southeast Asia, civilian air routes increasingly rely on BeiDou for real-time tracking. In Latin America and the Middle East, military clients are exploring Chinese receivers to replace their dependency on GPS.
This diffusion of navigational power is part of a larger Chinese strategy—not merely to match the United States, but to build a parallel system that renders American hegemony optional.
China’s push toward multipolarity isn’t just visible in trade routes or military drills—it is written in the stars. BeiDou is one pillar of this architecture. Others include China’s lead in 5G infrastructure, its rollout of the Digital Yuan, its investment in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and its ambitious space exploration agenda.
Beijing has understood what few others fully appreciate: that a superpower in the 21st century is not defined solely by its GDP or missile count, but by its ability to offer sovereign alternatives to global systems of control. BeiDou is exactly that—a sovereign alternative. It allows nations to chart their own course, free from the threat of digital sabotage or external command. In doing so, it shifts alliances not only through diplomacy or ideology but through circuitry and signal.
The clash between Iran and Israel revealed many things—military capability, political alliances, intelligence gaps—but above all, it revealed the arrival of a new digital order. It showed that China’s technology is no longer confined to factories or export catalogues. It is now embedded in warfare, embedded in sovereignty, and embedded in the most critical decisions a nation can make. With BeiDou, China did not just launch satellites. It launched influence, independence, and irreversible momentum.
And in doing so, it may have quietly changed the future of conflict—and the future of control.
Tech
American Scientists on Sale
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian economy plummeted, and most of its government-funded research institutions shut down. This included groundbreaking work in fields like space exploration, medicine, health, and advanced engineering. The lack of funds abruptly halted research projects, and thousands of brilliant scientists—once the lifeblood of the Soviet innovation machine—were left jobless. These scientists became a global commodity, sought after by nations eager to bolster their own research and development infrastructures.
One country that capitalized on this opportunity was Israel. Israel actively imported Russian Jews, welcoming tens of thousands of engineers, scientists, doctors, and professors. By some estimates, nearly 70,000 professionals migrated to Israel in the early 1990s. Their expertise was transformative: they injected fresh talent into Israel’s industries, contributing up to 10% GDP growth annually during the 1990s. These Soviet-trained experts became the backbone of Israel’s R&D sector, propelling Israel into the ranks of the world’s top innovation hubs. Major global corporations—Samsung, Hyundai, Daewoo, and others—began outsourcing their R&D to Israel, recognizing its unmatched talent pool, much of which stemmed directly from the Soviet brain drain.
Israel’s leap wasn’t limited to tech—it also gained formidable capabilities in defense, space, and medical research. The Russian scientists built a multi-sector R&D ecosystem that continues to give Israel a strategic edge in defense technology, aerospace, and innovation-led growth.
Now, fast forward to the present day, and a similar exodus is unfolding in the United States. Instead of learning from Russia’s collapse and protecting its intellectual capital, the Trump administration, under the guidance of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy—two of the most ambitious yet controversial figures in American leadership—has unleashed the DOGE initiative (Decentralization of Government Education). DOGE, under the guise of reform, is waging a war against U.S. universities and scientific institutions. They are mocking research with “strange names” they can’t comprehend, cutting off grants for fundamental science, and pushing a dangerous narrative that American research is wasteful.
As a result, top universities—once magnets for global talent and engines of innovation—are being suffocated. Federal funding is drying up, research projects are being canceled, and leading scientists are being laid off in droves. These scientists, left without support, are now seeking opportunities elsewhere.
Countries that understand the value of brainpower, like China, France, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, are eagerly recruiting these displaced American experts. They offer lucrative salaries, advanced labs, and the freedom to conduct cutting-edge research. China, in particular, is on a recruitment spree—hiring top-tier U.S. scientists to accelerate its technological and military ambitions. As America clamps down, China is absorbing these minds to build its own world-class R&D infrastructure—one that could rival, or even surpass, what the U.S. once had.
This dangerous trend is unfolding even as Trump’s administration pushes to revoke student visas for Chinese students, making it harder for them to study in the U.S. But while Chinese students scramble to stay in America, jobless U.S. professors, researchers, and scientists are heading to China—creating a reverse pipeline of talent.
This is a double blow to America’s future. First, by cutting off student visas, the U.S. is closing its doors to global talent that once fueled its innovation. Second, by starving universities of funding, it is forcing its own talent to seek refuge in countries like China. Instead of America educating the world, it risks becoming a brain drain exporter.
This exodus mirrors Marco Rubio’s stark warnings. Rubio has repeatedly cautioned that the U.S. is lagging dangerously behind China in a military and economic rivalry that could lead to conflict. He highlights China’s unprecedented peacetime military buildup—the fastest in history—and the U.S. policy failures that allowed China to dominate manufacturing, critical supply chains, and now, the intellectual arena. Rubio has pointed out that while the U.S. spends over $900 billion annually on defense compared to China’s officially reported $314 billion (though some estimates suggest China’s actual spending is over $470 billion), the quality and focus of China’s investments, especially in hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, space, and AI, give it a decisive edge.
Rubio also laments how deindustrialization—the result of U.S. companies moving manufacturing overseas for cheaper labor and fewer regulations—has hollowed out America’s industrial base. Between 1998 and 2021, the U.S. lost over 5 million manufacturing jobs and 70,000 factories. Even if the U.S. starts reshoring these industries now, rebuilding its manufacturing strength could take two decades—by which time the world will have moved on, and America will still be playing catch-up.
Meanwhile, Trump’s Golden Dome project, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is being touted as a solution to external threats. This ambitious missile defense system is designed to protect against ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, with an estimated cost between $175 billion and $500 billion—a colossal sum in an era when research budgets for fundamental science are being slashed. Critics argue that the Golden Dome is a band-aid solution that cannot compensate for the systematic hollowing out of America’s scientific, industrial, and technological base.
The reality is grim: America is facing a multi-dimensional crisis—in science, manufacturing, education, and defense. The U.S. is no longer the magnet for the world’s best minds; it is actively driving them away. As China, France, the Middle East, and others scoop up these talents, they are not only gaining a competitive edge but also reshaping the global balance of power.
To prevent this decline from becoming permanent, the United States must undergo fundamental, surgical reforms. It needs to rebuild its industrial base, reinvest in universities and research, restore funding for basic and applied sciences, and embrace global talent instead of driving it away. Without a comprehensive strategy, the U.S. risks losing its position as the world’s sole superpower—a position that now looks increasingly fragile and uncertain.
In the end, it is not just a question of competing with China or Russia. It is about whether the U.S. has the vision, leadership, and humility to learn from the mistakes of others—and from its own past—and to build a future that can stand the test of time.
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