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Yet Again, Pakistan Averted a Global Meltdown

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The temporary suspension of “Project Freedom” by President Donald Trump on May 5–6, 2026, may ultimately be remembered not merely as a tactical military pause, but as an admission that diplomacy had succeeded where overwhelming force had failed. After months of escalating confrontation in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the sudden halt of the U.S.-led naval escort operation reflected a changing geopolitical reality: the battlefield had reached its limits, the global economy was bleeding, and quiet diplomacy—much of it facilitated through Pakistan—had become the only viable path forward.
Within hours of the announcement, Brent crude fell sharply to nearly $108 a barrel while U.S. crude dropped toward $100. Global stock markets surged in relief. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, Asian markets rallied, and the immediate fear of catastrophic maritime losses eased. The world economy, which had been standing at the edge of another massive inflationary shock, suddenly regained a measure of stability.
According to the emerging narrative from regional diplomacy, Pakistan worked continuously behind the scenes to maintain communication channels between Washington and Tehran after the fragile ceasefire that began on April 7, 2026. Islamabad reportedly urged restraint on all sides and advocated a formula that combined de-escalation in Hormuz with renewed negotiations on sanctions, maritime access, and regional security guarantees.
Whether acknowledged publicly or not, Pakistan’s role appears to have been crucial in preventing the conflict from crossing the point of no return. The irony of the entire episode is impossible to ignore. The war itself began with immense confidence from the United States and Israel. “Epic Fury,” the military campaign launched with promises of crushing Iran’s strategic capabilities, was presented as a short and decisive operation that would allegedly force Tehran into submission within weeks. Regime change, rollback of nuclear ambitions, destruction of military infrastructure, and strategic surrender were all openly discussed as attainable goals.
None of those objectives materialized. Instead, Iran absorbed the pressure, maintained internal cohesion, preserved much of its command structure, and demonstrated a capacity for resilience that surprised even many seasoned observers. What was expected to become a demonstration of overwhelming Western military supremacy gradually evolved into a prolonged strategic stalemate.
The same pattern repeated itself with “Project Freedom.” The initiative was introduced with great fanfare as a bold U.S.-led naval effort to escort commercial vessels safely through Hormuz and break Iran’s effective control over maritime movement. Yet the operation quickly encountered practical realities. Shipping companies hesitated. Insurance providers warned of extreme wartime risk exposure. Several commercial vessels reportedly complied with Iranian maritime instructions rather than rely entirely on foreign military escorts. What was intended to project dominance instead exposed the limitations of power in a multipolar world. Ultimately, Project Freedom itself was paused without fully achieving its declared objectives.
That decision alone speaks volumes. For decades, Washington operated under the assumption that military superiority automatically translated into geopolitical compliance. The Iran conflict has challenged that assumption. A country under sanctions, facing combined pressure from the United States and Israel, managed not only to survive but to negotiate from a position far stronger than many anticipated.
Now the balance of leverage has visibly shifted. Even President Trump’s own remarks about energy exports inadvertently revealed another dimension of the conflict. During recent comments about upcoming discussions with Xi Jinping, Trump openly spoke about encouraging China and Asian economies to purchase greater quantities of American oil and gas from Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana. He described satellite images showing lines of ships moving toward American energy terminals like “highways at sea.”
Reading between the lines, many analysts see a broader economic motive behind the prolonged instability in Hormuz. As Middle Eastern exports became constrained by war, insecurity, and naval restrictions, U.S. energy producers gained unprecedented opportunities to capture global market share. Asian consumers who traditionally relied heavily on Gulf oil increasingly turned toward American supplies.
In effect, the disruption of Gulf energy routes redirected enormous revenue streams toward the United States. Meanwhile, Gulf economies paid a heavy price. Infrastructure damage, declining investor confidence, soaring insurance premiums, interrupted exports, and prolonged regional insecurity weakened economies that had once depended on stable maritime commerce. Even when some production capacity remained intact, the uncertainty surrounding Hormuz severely constrained the movement of energy resources.
Yet another remarkable transformation emerged during this crisis: Washington’s rediscovery of international institutions. Only months earlier, senior American officials had openly dismissed the relevance of the United Nations, criticizing multilateral systems as ineffective and outdated. The United States had reduced participation in several international bodies and increasingly emphasized unilateral power.
But as the Hormuz crisis intensified, the rhetoric changed dramatically. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently emphasized the importance of the United Nations and suggested that maritime disputes surrounding Hormuz should be addressed through international mechanisms and peaceful diplomacy. The same system previously dismissed as ineffective suddenly became essential once military escalation failed to deliver decisive outcomes.
This reversal illustrates a deeper truth about the emerging global order: even superpowers ultimately require rules, institutions, and diplomacy when raw force reaches its limits.
The conflict also exposed extraordinary contradictions in international conduct. Iran was repeatedly described as an aggressor for restricting maritime access in Hormuz, while many across the world pointed to previous unilateral military actions carried out elsewhere without international authorization. Competing narratives dominated global media every day. One day the war was about nuclear weapons, the next day about regional security, then about maritime freedom, and later about protecting commerce. The justifications evolved constantly because the realities on the ground kept changing.
Amid this confusion, Pakistan quietly positioned itself not as a military actor but as a stabilizing diplomatic bridge. A country often underestimated in global power calculations emerged as one of the few states capable of communicating credibly with all major stakeholders—Washington, Tehran, Beijing, and the Gulf capitals simultaneously.
That achievement carries enormous significance. Had the conflict continued escalating unchecked, the consequences could have become catastrophic. A fully closed Hormuz Strait might have triggered oil prices well beyond previous crisis peaks, devastated global transportation systems, collapsed fragile supply chains, and pushed multiple economies into recession simultaneously. The trillions potentially saved through de-escalation cannot be measured only in stock market rebounds or lower fuel costs; they include avoided unemployment, avoided inflationary spirals, avoided industrial shutdowns, and perhaps even avoidance of a broader regional war.
Today, the world stands at a fragile crossroads. The ceasefire remains conditional, mistrust remains deep, and no permanent agreement has yet been finalized. Risks continue to hover over the Gulf, and shipping companies still view the region as dangerous. But for now, diplomacy has temporarily succeeded where confrontation failed.
And in that diplomatic success, Pakistan’s role has emerged as one of the most consequential and least acknowledged developments of the entire crisis.
The world may eventually recognize that while great powers fought for dominance, it was careful diplomacy from an unexpected mediator that helped prevent economic disaster and pulled humanity one step back from the edge of a far wider war.

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CM Murad asks authorities to boost polio vaccination across Sindh

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KARACHI: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah on Wednesday reviewed the progress against poliovirus, noting that Sindh had reduced its polio burden from 23 cases in 2024 and nine in 2025 to just one case so far in 2026. However, environmental surveillance showed that the virus is still present in a few high-risk areas.

Chairing a meeting of the Provincial Task Force (PTF) on Polio Eradication, the CM reaffirmed the government’s commitment to eliminating the disease and directed authorities to intensify vaccination, surveillance and community engagement efforts ahead of the September 21-27 Sub-National Immunisation Days (SNIDs) campaign.

“The progress achieved by Sindh is encouraging and reflects the hard work of our health workers, district administrations and partner organisations, but our mission will only be completed when every child is protected, and the virus is eliminated from every district,” said Murad Ali Shah.

“No child should remain unvaccinated due to negligence, weak supervision or lack of follow-up.”

Reviews preparations for week-long campaign beginning on 21st

The meeting, held at CM House, was attended by Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho, chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah, Mayor of Karachi Murtaza Wahab, IG Police Sindh Javed Alam Odho, commissioner of Karachi Hassan Naqvi, provincial secretaries, provincial coordinator of Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) Shaharyar Gul, Sindh government partners, and deputy commissioners. From other districts, commissioners, DIGs, deputy commissioners and SSPs participated via video link.

Briefing the meeting, Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho said Pakistan’s wild poliovirus (WPV1) cases have declined sharply from 74 in 2024 to 31 in 2025 and only three so far in 2026. Sindh has recorded a single case this year, reported from Sujawal on February 10, compared to nine cases last year and 23 in 2024.

In-charge of EOC Shaharyar Gul informed the chief minister that environmental surveillance data shows a significant reduction in virus circulation across the province. The number of positive environmental surveillance sites has fallen from a peak of 29 in March 2025 to only five in August 2026. Outside Karachi, all 14 surveillance sites are currently negative, while six of Karachi’s 15 sites remain positive, indicating that transmission is increasingly confined to limited pockets of the city.

The meeting participants were told that the absence of confirmed polio cases in Karachi during the 2025 high-transmission season, despite some positive environmental samples, reflects stronger population immunity achieved through routine immunisation and repeated vaccination campaigns.

Chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah said that sustained immunisation efforts have helped prevent clinical cases even where environmental surveillance continues to detect virus circulation.

Expressing satisfaction over the declining trend, the chief minister directed all commissioners, deputy commissioners and district health authorities to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards missed children, refusals and operational gaps.

Reviewing surveillance findings, he ordered intensified vaccination and monitoring efforts in Karachi and other identified high-risk areas, full implementation of the Karachi Action Plan 2.0, stronger coordination among district administrations and health authorities, closer monitoring of migrant and mobile populations and improved routine immunisation coverage in underserved communities.

EOC coordinator Shaharyar Gul reported that nearly three million oral polio vaccine (OPV) doses and 2.89 million booster doses were administered in Karachi, while campaigns in other divisions delivered approximately 2.7 million OPV doses and 2.58 million booster doses. Expanded-age vaccination strategies helped reach older children through schools and community-based interventions.

The chief minister appreciated the efforts of frontline workers, teachers, community mobilisers and health staff working in remote and hard-to-reach areas, describing them as the backbone of the eradication programme.

The task force was informed that after the July 2026 SNIDs campaign, a special 10-day follow-up drive was launched to vaccinate children who had initially been missed. Of 146,149 missed children, more than 23,500 were subsequently vaccinated through targeted efforts focused on refusals and unavailable children.

Mr Shah directed district administrations to further reduce refusal rates through stronger community engagement and public awareness campaigns, emphasising that building trust with parents remains critical to the success of the programme.

The meeting reviewed preparations for the September 21-27 SNIDs campaign, during which nearly 10 million children under five will be vaccinated across Sindh. The campaign will cover 23 full districts and selected union councils in seven partial districts, with more than 80,000 frontline workers participating.

Officials said over 26,000 police personnel have been assigned security duties. The chief minister reiterated the provincial government’s financial support for the campaign and noted that incentives for frontline workers had been increased by 28 per cent.

He directed all districts to complete remaining preparedness measures, including vaccine supply, logistics, workforce deployment and supervision arrangements, before the campaign begins.

The chief minister also reviewed campaign quality indicators and was informed that Sindh has continued to maintain strong performance standards while pursuing key reforms in routine immunisation, surveillance, staffing and community engagement.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Dealers await answers as fuel subsidy rollout begins

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• Petroleum dealers lament lack of clarity on payment mechanism, timeline
• PM wants facilitation desks to help people trying to buy subsidised fuel
• Ogra attributes hike to elevated crude prices despite decline in int’l rates

ISLAMABAD: Even as members of the public who have signed up for the PM’s Fuel Relief Scheme queued up at fuel pumps late on Wednesday night, petroleum dealers were still not clear about the mechanism whereby they would be compensated.

The concern was voiced by the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) during a presser in Karachi, where its chairman Malik Khuda Bakhsh said that no fuel pump could afford to bear a loss of Rs100 per litre without clarity on how they will be compensated.

He claimed that between the petroleum ministry, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and even the finance ministry, no one had been able to answer their questions.

“Officials from Ogra and oil marketing companies say that the petroleum ministry will possibly pay the subsidy amount, whereas ministry officials maintain that payments will be made by the finance ministry, while finance ministry officials assure us that the State Bank will release the funds in a day or two,“ Mr Bakhsh added.

A day earlier, the National Steering Com­mittee on Fuel Subsidy — chaired by Deputy PM Ishaq Dar — had ordered that payments to fuel stations under the PM’s scheme be processed within 24 hours through the State Bank of Pakistan.

However, Mr Bakhsh said the federal government had assured dealers that they would be taken into confidence before the launch of the fuel relief package, but lamented that no such consultation took place.

”The government has to understand that if payments are not reimbursed in time, many dealers will stop participating in [the scheme], as many previous promises were also not fulfilled by the government,” he added.

PPDA Vice Chairman Tariq Hassan said that around 14,000 dealers across the country have been trying desperately to contact the government over the past three days, adding that whenever Islamabad wants to enforce something, it stops communication.

Another vice chairman, Anwar Kamal, said that if the scheme was to be successful, the government must negotiate with dealers, adding that dealers could not afford to have billions tied up for a long period under this scheme.

Mr Bakhsh later told Dawn they had been invited to a virtual meeting with the relevant federal secretary on Thursday morning.

He added that Ogra officials had also reached out to brief him, but he had asked for that information in writing, so he could relay that to the members of his association.

Facilitation desks

Earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered authorities to set up facilitation desks comprising administration officials, volunteers and petrol pump staff to assist citizens in easily obtaining fuel subsidy under the special relief scheme, which was rolled out across the country at Wednesday midnight, following the launch of the pilot phase in Islamabad.

Presiding over a meeting to review progress on the scheme, PM Shehbaz directed that personnel deployed at the facilitation desks should guide eligible citizens and provide them with all possible assistance in registration and other necessary procedures.

The prime minister also asked the relevant authorities to remain proactive in creating public awareness about the scheme, which will benefit people from all four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The meeting was informed that the scheme had been designed in a simple and easy-to-understand manner for the public. Only four pieces of information were required for registration: the applicant’s CNIC number, vehicle number plate, province of registration and vehicle registration date.

According to an official, the number of successful registrations was gradually rising, while provincial governments were extending “full cooperation” for nationwide implementation of the scheme.

Oil prices

Meanwhile, notifying fresh POL rates on Wednesday night, Ogra attributed the steep hikes to elevated international crude oil and petroleum product prices.

The price of high-speed diesel was increased by Rs5.62 per litre to Rs421.45, while petrol became costlier by Rs6.88 per litre, taking its new price to Rs391.22 per litre.

Brent crude futures fell $2.92, or 2.7 per cent, to settle at $105.83 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures fell $3.40, or 3.2pc, to close at $102.43, Reuters reported.

Saudi Arabia is offering more loadings of crude oil to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, people familiar with the matter said, blunting some of the hit to global supply from attacks on the country’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.

Oil prices had gained more than $3 in the previous session after shipping industry sources said crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had been suspended and Riyadh had cancelled some cargo deliveries to European customers.

The suspension followed strikes on the East-West pipeline, which feeds the Saudi port of Yanbu. It became the main Saudi outlet for oil exports after Iran began blockading the Strait of Hormuz after US and Israeli attacks on the country.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Islamabad, Beijing activate joint border commission

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and China on Wednesday operationalised a long pending joint mechanism for managing their common border, with Islamabad des­cribing the move as a significant milestone in bilateral relations and a step toward closer coordination on border management, trade and cross-border connectivity.

“The inaugural meeting of the Commission was held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

The meeting was co-led by Li Ya, deputy director general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bilal Mahmood Chaudhary, director general for China at Pakistan’s Foreign Office.

The FO described the ope­r­ationalisation of the Pakis­tan-China Boundary Joint Com­m­ission as a “significant milestone for Pak­istan-China relations”, saying it would set “the stage for enh­anced cooperation in border management, joint border surveys, trade flows and people to people connectivity.”

The commission has its origins in the 2013 Agre­ement on the Boundary Mana­gement System signed during the visit of then Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Islamabad. Article 45 of the agreement provides for establishment of the joint commission to oversee implementation of the border management arrangements.

The mechanism would provide an institutional framework for dealing with practical issues along the border, including maintenance and inspection of the boundary, joint surveys, boundary marker issues, management of cross-border facilities and handling of incidents involving the border.

Its activation also gives the two countries a mechanism for regular coordination on a border that is important for movement between Pakistan and China, including thr­ough the Khunjerab crossing, and for trade and connectivity linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The new commission is distinct from the Joint Boundary Demarcation Commission that was established under the Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement of March 2, 1963. The earlier commission had a specific and essentially one time mandate to conduct surveys, establish boundary markers, prepare detailed maps and set out the alignment of the boundary.

Its work ended after the signing of the protocol and maps completing the demarcation process. The 1963 agreement was signed in Beijing by then-Pakistani foreign minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his Chinese counterpart Chen Yi.

It also provided that, following a settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the relevant sovereign authority would reopen negotiations with China on the boundary.

The 2013 agreement, by contrast, established a continuing system for managing the already demarcated boundary, including provisions for dealing with boundary markers and cross-border infrastructure. The agreement says that if a marker cannot be restored at its original location, the joint commission can determine another suitable location, provided the boundary line itself is not altered.

India, which disputes the validity of the 1963 agreement and regards the territory covered by it as part of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, rejected the new mechanism.

“We have seen reports in this regard. Our position on this matter is clear and consistent. There is no boundary between Pakistan and China. We reject the so-called Joint Commission, which is without any legal basis,” Ind­ian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said.

For Pakistan and China, however, the commission provides a new institutional arrangement for managing their border relationship and dealing with practical issues that have emerged since the 2013 agreement, while leaving the broader territorial positions of the parties unchanged.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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