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Trump’s Spotlight on Shahbaz

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The recent summit hosted by President Donald Trump, with Egypt’s Prime Minister beside him, carried moments that went beyond protocol. When Trump extended an affectionate greeting to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, it was more than a warm gesture—it symbolized a historic shift in U.S.–Pakistan relations. That moment showed how Islamabad’s civilian leadership and its military command under Field Marshal Asim Munir had moved from the margins of suspicion to the heart of Washington’s strategic calculus. This closeness did not emerge overnight. It had been cultivated in the months before America’s devastating strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, when Pakistan’s leadership first engaged with Trump in serious dialogue. Since then, Pakistan has become central in persuading the Muslim world and wealthy Arab capitals to support Trump’s ambitious 21-point Gaza Peace Plan.
What followed at the summit underscored the depth of this bond. While European leaders, presidents, and prime ministers from around the globe sat on the sidelines, Shehbaz Sharif was invited by Trump to take the podium and publicly offer praise. No other leader was given such a platform. Trump, clearly pleased, remarked that the true achievement of the summit was not only the signing of the Hamas–Israel agreement but the dawn of a new era of friendship, reconstruction, and hope for Gaza. In a further gesture, Trump mentioned Field Marshal Munir by name, praising his leadership and role in regional stability. It was a recognition that carried consequences far beyond the hall, signaling to the world that Pakistan was no longer merely a participant but an indispensable partner in shaping the future of the Middle East.
The political consequences at home are equally profound. A country that only recently teetered on the brink of economic collapse now finds itself under the protective shield of Washington’s goodwill. Trump’s personal embrace of Pakistan’s leadership, combined with the IMF’s readiness to release fresh funds and the global media’s acknowledgment of reforms, all but ensures that Shehbaz Sharif’s government will complete its five-year term. Bloomberg’s recent report, which placed Pakistan as the second most improved emerging economy in terms of sovereign default risk, has become an anchor for this perception of stability. It suggests that regime change, once a lingering fear, is no longer an imminent threat.
For the opposition led by Imran Khan, this represents a near-terminal blow. PTI, once a movement with momentum, now appears fractured, riddled with blame games and leadership rifts. International recognition of government performance compounds the decline of PTI’s appeal. The likelihood of Khan’s return to power grows slimmer with each passing day, not only in this term but perhaps in the next electoral cycle as well. Continuity, not disruption, now defines the political horizon.
Bloomberg’s endorsement is more than a headline. Between June 2024 and September 2025, Pakistan’s sovereign default probability fell by as much as 2,200 basis points. From being ranked among the riskiest economies in the world, Pakistan rose to the second-best performer among emerging markets, behind only Turkiye. The turnaround was achieved through strict fiscal discipline, compliance with IMF conditions, timely debt repayments, and reforms that improved investor confidence. To lenders and investors, the message is clear: Pakistan is no longer a default story but a recovery story. To citizens, it signals hope that the worst may be behind them.
Yet beneath this optimism lies a more complex reality. The improvement in sovereign risk is significant but does not tell the whole story. Pakistan’s growth for FY25 was revised upward to 3.04% after industrial output rebounded, while third-quarter growth came in at 2.4%. These figures are encouraging but modest, reflecting stabilization rather than a boom. Inflation, which had once spiraled above 30%, cooled dramatically to just 4.1% by late 2024, allowing the State Bank to cut policy rates from a suffocating 22% down to 12%. This drop, however, owes as much to global commodity relief as it does to policy discipline.
Investment has shown some sparkle: the Special Investment Facilitation Council pushed foreign direct investment up by 16% in one month, IT exports rose 32%, and the Karachi Stock Exchange doubled in a single year. Exports rose by 10% to $30.64 billion in FY2024, though a persistent trade deficit remains, fueled by costly imports of petroleum and machinery. Most recently, a $1.2 billion IMF agreement reached in October 2025 has shored up liquidity, while the 2025–26 budget ambitiously targets 4.2% growth.
These data points reinforce Bloomberg’s narrative to an extent. Inflation is under control, growth is stabilizing, investors are returning, and credit risk has narrowed. Yet deep challenges persist. Job creation remains weak, and official data is thin. Small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of domestic employment, still face crushing costs from energy tariffs, taxation, and financing constraints. Structural reforms in governance, energy, and taxation continue to lag. Pakistan’s revival, while real, is fragile—dependent on external goodwill and vulnerable to global shocks.
What makes the Bloomberg recognition consequential is its convergence with Trump’s embrace. Together, they create a powerful narrative dividend: Pakistan is not only stable, but strategically indispensable. For Washington, Islamabad’s role in rallying Muslim and Arab states behind the Gaza framework is invaluable. For Pakistan, the dividend is survival and the chance to thrive under international endorsement. IMF funds flow more smoothly, investors take notice, and international media highlight the recovery rather than the collapse. Confidence breeds confidence, and the government’s legitimacy is strengthened at home.
But overreliance on narrative is dangerous. Recognition from Bloomberg or praise from Trump cannot substitute for deep economic transformation. If oil prices spike, if U.S. interest rates rise, or if domestic reforms stall, the narrative could unravel quickly. Investors are patient only as long as reforms continue; corruption or complacency could break the cycle of confidence. Pakistan’s future cannot rest solely on symbolic endorsements. It must be built on durable change that translates into jobs, thriving businesses, and improved living standards.
The outlook is both promising and precarious. If Pakistan can maintain fiscal prudence, expand exports, exploit its mineral wealth, and modernize its economy, this Bloomberg moment may be remembered as the beginning of a genuine turnaround. With Washington’s backing, the country enjoys a rare window of stability that could last five to ten years, enough time to set the foundation for durable prosperity. But history offers harsh lessons: moments of reprieve squandered, opportunities lost to complacency or discord.
The challenge now is not to mistake recognition for resolution. Trump’s embrace and Bloomberg’s endorsement are powerful signals of global confidence, but unless they are matched by tangible improvements in jobs, trade, and technology, they will remain fleeting headlines. Pakistan stands at a turning point, its reprieve fragile but full of possibility. Whether this moment becomes a renaissance or a relapse depends not on the applause abroad but on the reforms at home.

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CM Murad asks authorities to boost polio vaccination across Sindh

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KARACHI: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah on Wednesday reviewed the progress against poliovirus, noting that Sindh had reduced its polio burden from 23 cases in 2024 and nine in 2025 to just one case so far in 2026. However, environmental surveillance showed that the virus is still present in a few high-risk areas.

Chairing a meeting of the Provincial Task Force (PTF) on Polio Eradication, the CM reaffirmed the government’s commitment to eliminating the disease and directed authorities to intensify vaccination, surveillance and community engagement efforts ahead of the September 21-27 Sub-National Immunisation Days (SNIDs) campaign.

“The progress achieved by Sindh is encouraging and reflects the hard work of our health workers, district administrations and partner organisations, but our mission will only be completed when every child is protected, and the virus is eliminated from every district,” said Murad Ali Shah.

“No child should remain unvaccinated due to negligence, weak supervision or lack of follow-up.”

Reviews preparations for week-long campaign beginning on 21st

The meeting, held at CM House, was attended by Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho, chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah, Mayor of Karachi Murtaza Wahab, IG Police Sindh Javed Alam Odho, commissioner of Karachi Hassan Naqvi, provincial secretaries, provincial coordinator of Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) Shaharyar Gul, Sindh government partners, and deputy commissioners. From other districts, commissioners, DIGs, deputy commissioners and SSPs participated via video link.

Briefing the meeting, Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho said Pakistan’s wild poliovirus (WPV1) cases have declined sharply from 74 in 2024 to 31 in 2025 and only three so far in 2026. Sindh has recorded a single case this year, reported from Sujawal on February 10, compared to nine cases last year and 23 in 2024.

In-charge of EOC Shaharyar Gul informed the chief minister that environmental surveillance data shows a significant reduction in virus circulation across the province. The number of positive environmental surveillance sites has fallen from a peak of 29 in March 2025 to only five in August 2026. Outside Karachi, all 14 surveillance sites are currently negative, while six of Karachi’s 15 sites remain positive, indicating that transmission is increasingly confined to limited pockets of the city.

The meeting participants were told that the absence of confirmed polio cases in Karachi during the 2025 high-transmission season, despite some positive environmental samples, reflects stronger population immunity achieved through routine immunisation and repeated vaccination campaigns.

Chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah said that sustained immunisation efforts have helped prevent clinical cases even where environmental surveillance continues to detect virus circulation.

Expressing satisfaction over the declining trend, the chief minister directed all commissioners, deputy commissioners and district health authorities to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards missed children, refusals and operational gaps.

Reviewing surveillance findings, he ordered intensified vaccination and monitoring efforts in Karachi and other identified high-risk areas, full implementation of the Karachi Action Plan 2.0, stronger coordination among district administrations and health authorities, closer monitoring of migrant and mobile populations and improved routine immunisation coverage in underserved communities.

EOC coordinator Shaharyar Gul reported that nearly three million oral polio vaccine (OPV) doses and 2.89 million booster doses were administered in Karachi, while campaigns in other divisions delivered approximately 2.7 million OPV doses and 2.58 million booster doses. Expanded-age vaccination strategies helped reach older children through schools and community-based interventions.

The chief minister appreciated the efforts of frontline workers, teachers, community mobilisers and health staff working in remote and hard-to-reach areas, describing them as the backbone of the eradication programme.

The task force was informed that after the July 2026 SNIDs campaign, a special 10-day follow-up drive was launched to vaccinate children who had initially been missed. Of 146,149 missed children, more than 23,500 were subsequently vaccinated through targeted efforts focused on refusals and unavailable children.

Mr Shah directed district administrations to further reduce refusal rates through stronger community engagement and public awareness campaigns, emphasising that building trust with parents remains critical to the success of the programme.

The meeting reviewed preparations for the September 21-27 SNIDs campaign, during which nearly 10 million children under five will be vaccinated across Sindh. The campaign will cover 23 full districts and selected union councils in seven partial districts, with more than 80,000 frontline workers participating.

Officials said over 26,000 police personnel have been assigned security duties. The chief minister reiterated the provincial government’s financial support for the campaign and noted that incentives for frontline workers had been increased by 28 per cent.

He directed all districts to complete remaining preparedness measures, including vaccine supply, logistics, workforce deployment and supervision arrangements, before the campaign begins.

The chief minister also reviewed campaign quality indicators and was informed that Sindh has continued to maintain strong performance standards while pursuing key reforms in routine immunisation, surveillance, staffing and community engagement.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Dealers await answers as fuel subsidy rollout begins

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• Petroleum dealers lament lack of clarity on payment mechanism, timeline
• PM wants facilitation desks to help people trying to buy subsidised fuel
• Ogra attributes hike to elevated crude prices despite decline in int’l rates

ISLAMABAD: Even as members of the public who have signed up for the PM’s Fuel Relief Scheme queued up at fuel pumps late on Wednesday night, petroleum dealers were still not clear about the mechanism whereby they would be compensated.

The concern was voiced by the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) during a presser in Karachi, where its chairman Malik Khuda Bakhsh said that no fuel pump could afford to bear a loss of Rs100 per litre without clarity on how they will be compensated.

He claimed that between the petroleum ministry, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and even the finance ministry, no one had been able to answer their questions.

“Officials from Ogra and oil marketing companies say that the petroleum ministry will possibly pay the subsidy amount, whereas ministry officials maintain that payments will be made by the finance ministry, while finance ministry officials assure us that the State Bank will release the funds in a day or two,“ Mr Bakhsh added.

A day earlier, the National Steering Com­mittee on Fuel Subsidy — chaired by Deputy PM Ishaq Dar — had ordered that payments to fuel stations under the PM’s scheme be processed within 24 hours through the State Bank of Pakistan.

However, Mr Bakhsh said the federal government had assured dealers that they would be taken into confidence before the launch of the fuel relief package, but lamented that no such consultation took place.

”The government has to understand that if payments are not reimbursed in time, many dealers will stop participating in [the scheme], as many previous promises were also not fulfilled by the government,” he added.

PPDA Vice Chairman Tariq Hassan said that around 14,000 dealers across the country have been trying desperately to contact the government over the past three days, adding that whenever Islamabad wants to enforce something, it stops communication.

Another vice chairman, Anwar Kamal, said that if the scheme was to be successful, the government must negotiate with dealers, adding that dealers could not afford to have billions tied up for a long period under this scheme.

Mr Bakhsh later told Dawn they had been invited to a virtual meeting with the relevant federal secretary on Thursday morning.

He added that Ogra officials had also reached out to brief him, but he had asked for that information in writing, so he could relay that to the members of his association.

Facilitation desks

Earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered authorities to set up facilitation desks comprising administration officials, volunteers and petrol pump staff to assist citizens in easily obtaining fuel subsidy under the special relief scheme, which was rolled out across the country at Wednesday midnight, following the launch of the pilot phase in Islamabad.

Presiding over a meeting to review progress on the scheme, PM Shehbaz directed that personnel deployed at the facilitation desks should guide eligible citizens and provide them with all possible assistance in registration and other necessary procedures.

The prime minister also asked the relevant authorities to remain proactive in creating public awareness about the scheme, which will benefit people from all four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The meeting was informed that the scheme had been designed in a simple and easy-to-understand manner for the public. Only four pieces of information were required for registration: the applicant’s CNIC number, vehicle number plate, province of registration and vehicle registration date.

According to an official, the number of successful registrations was gradually rising, while provincial governments were extending “full cooperation” for nationwide implementation of the scheme.

Oil prices

Meanwhile, notifying fresh POL rates on Wednesday night, Ogra attributed the steep hikes to elevated international crude oil and petroleum product prices.

The price of high-speed diesel was increased by Rs5.62 per litre to Rs421.45, while petrol became costlier by Rs6.88 per litre, taking its new price to Rs391.22 per litre.

Brent crude futures fell $2.92, or 2.7 per cent, to settle at $105.83 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures fell $3.40, or 3.2pc, to close at $102.43, Reuters reported.

Saudi Arabia is offering more loadings of crude oil to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, people familiar with the matter said, blunting some of the hit to global supply from attacks on the country’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.

Oil prices had gained more than $3 in the previous session after shipping industry sources said crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had been suspended and Riyadh had cancelled some cargo deliveries to European customers.

The suspension followed strikes on the East-West pipeline, which feeds the Saudi port of Yanbu. It became the main Saudi outlet for oil exports after Iran began blockading the Strait of Hormuz after US and Israeli attacks on the country.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Islamabad, Beijing activate joint border commission

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and China on Wednesday operationalised a long pending joint mechanism for managing their common border, with Islamabad des­cribing the move as a significant milestone in bilateral relations and a step toward closer coordination on border management, trade and cross-border connectivity.

“The inaugural meeting of the Commission was held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

The meeting was co-led by Li Ya, deputy director general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bilal Mahmood Chaudhary, director general for China at Pakistan’s Foreign Office.

The FO described the ope­r­ationalisation of the Pakis­tan-China Boundary Joint Com­m­ission as a “significant milestone for Pak­istan-China relations”, saying it would set “the stage for enh­anced cooperation in border management, joint border surveys, trade flows and people to people connectivity.”

The commission has its origins in the 2013 Agre­ement on the Boundary Mana­gement System signed during the visit of then Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Islamabad. Article 45 of the agreement provides for establishment of the joint commission to oversee implementation of the border management arrangements.

The mechanism would provide an institutional framework for dealing with practical issues along the border, including maintenance and inspection of the boundary, joint surveys, boundary marker issues, management of cross-border facilities and handling of incidents involving the border.

Its activation also gives the two countries a mechanism for regular coordination on a border that is important for movement between Pakistan and China, including thr­ough the Khunjerab crossing, and for trade and connectivity linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The new commission is distinct from the Joint Boundary Demarcation Commission that was established under the Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement of March 2, 1963. The earlier commission had a specific and essentially one time mandate to conduct surveys, establish boundary markers, prepare detailed maps and set out the alignment of the boundary.

Its work ended after the signing of the protocol and maps completing the demarcation process. The 1963 agreement was signed in Beijing by then-Pakistani foreign minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his Chinese counterpart Chen Yi.

It also provided that, following a settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the relevant sovereign authority would reopen negotiations with China on the boundary.

The 2013 agreement, by contrast, established a continuing system for managing the already demarcated boundary, including provisions for dealing with boundary markers and cross-border infrastructure. The agreement says that if a marker cannot be restored at its original location, the joint commission can determine another suitable location, provided the boundary line itself is not altered.

India, which disputes the validity of the 1963 agreement and regards the territory covered by it as part of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, rejected the new mechanism.

“We have seen reports in this regard. Our position on this matter is clear and consistent. There is no boundary between Pakistan and China. We reject the so-called Joint Commission, which is without any legal basis,” Ind­ian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said.

For Pakistan and China, however, the commission provides a new institutional arrangement for managing their border relationship and dealing with practical issues that have emerged since the 2013 agreement, while leaving the broader territorial positions of the parties unchanged.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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