American News
Is the US really heading into a recession?
During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump promised Americans he would usher in a new era of prosperity.
Now two months into his presidency, he’s painting a slightly different picture.
He has warned that it will be hard to bring down prices and the public should be prepared for a “little disturbance” before he can bring back wealth to the US.
Meanwhile, even as the latest figures indicate inflation is easing,analysts say the odds of a downturn are increasing, pointing to his policies.
So is Trump about to trigger a recession in the world’s largest economy?
Markets fall and recession risks rise
In the US, a recession is defined as a prolonged and widespread decline in economic activity typically characterised by a jump in unemployment and fall in incomes.
A chorus of economic analysts have warned in recent days that the risks of such a scenario are rising.
A JP Morgan report put the chance of recession at 40%, up from 30% at the start of the year, warning that US policy was “tilting away from growth”, while Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, upped the odds from 15% to 35%, citing tariffs.
The forecasts came as the S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the biggest companies in the US sank sharply. It has now fallen to its lowest level since September in a sign of fears about the future.

The market turmoil is being driven partly by concerns about new taxes on imports, called tariffs, which Trump has introduced since he took office.
He has hit products from America’s three biggest trade partners with the new duties, and threatened them more widely in moves that analysts believe will increase prices and curb growth.
The latest official inflation figures in the US showed the rate of price increases cooling in February, however.
Prices were up 2.8% over the 12 months to February, down from 3% in January, the Labor Department said.
Still, Trump and his economic advisers have been warning the public to be prepared for some economic pain, while appearing to dismissthe market concerns – a marked change from his first term, when he frequently cited the stock market as a measure of his own success.
“There will always be changes and adjustments,” he said last week, in response to pleas from businesses for more certainty.
The posture has increased investor worries about his plans.
Goldman Sachs last week raised its recession bets from 15% to 20%, saying it saw policy changes as “the key risk” to the economy. But it noted that the White House still had “the option to pull back if the downside risks begin to look more serious”.
“If the White House remained committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data, recession risk would rise further,” the firm’s analysts warned.
Tariffs, uncertainty and slowing growth
For many firms, the biggest question mark is tariffs, which raise costs for US businesses by putting taxes on imports. As Trump unveils tariff plans, many companies are now facing lower profit margins, while holding off on investments and hiring as they try to figure out what the future will look like.
Investors are also worried about big cuts to the government workforce and government spending.
Brian Gardner, chief of Washington policy strategy at the investment bank Stifel, said businesses and investors had thought Trump intended tariffs as a negotiating tool.
“But what the president and his cabinet are signalling is actually a bigger deal. It’s a restructuring of the American economy,” he said. “And that’s what’s been driving markets in the last couple of weeks.”

The US economy was already undergoing a slowdown, engineered in part by the central bank, which has kept interest rates higher to try to cool activity and stabilise prices.
In recent weeks, some data suggests a more rapid weakening.
Retail sales fell in February, confidence – which had popped after Trump’s election on several surveys of consumers and businesses – has fallen, and companies including major airlines, retailers such as Walmart and Target, and manufacturers are warning of a pullback.
Some analysts are worried a drop in the stock market could trigger a further clampdown in spending, especially among higher income households.
That could deliver a major hit to the US economy, which is driven by consumer spending and has grown increasingly dependent on those richer households, as lower income families face
The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, offered assurances in a speech last week, noting that sentiment had not been a good indicator of behaviour in recent years.
“Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place,” he said.
But the US economy is currently deeply linked to the rest of the world, warned Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
“The fact that tariffs could disrupt that at the same time that there were signs that the US economy was weakening anyway … is really fuelling recession fears,” she says.
Stock market in tech ripe for correction
The unease in the stock market isn’t all about Trump.
Investors were already jittery about the possibility of a correction, after big gains over the last two years, driven by the sharp run-up in tech stocks fuelled by investor optimism about artificial intelligence (AI).
Chipmaker Nvidia, for example, saw its share price jump from less than $15 at the start of 2023 to nearly $150 in November of last year.
That type of rise had stirred debate about an “AI bubble” – with investors on high alert for signs of it bursting, which would have a big impact on the stock market, regardless of the dynamics in the wider economy.
Now, with views of the US economy darkening, optimism about AI is getting even harder to sustain.
Tech analyst Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management wrote on social media this week that his optimism had “taken a step back” as the chance of a recession increased “measurably” over the past month.
“The bottom line is that if we enter a recession, it will be extremely difficult for the AI trade to continue,” he said.
Taken From BBC News
American News
Photos show charred wreckage from deadly crash of news helicopter in LA
Investigators have released new photos that show the stark aftermath of a news helicopter crash that killed three people in Los Angeles on Tuesday night.
A scorched aircraft and charred storage container were being examined at the scene of the incident on Wednesday. The collision claimed the lives of NBC photojournalist Eliana Moreno and pilot George Marciniw.
The third victim, a pedestrian, was identified as Edy Gutierrez Mejia, 29, by the coroner’s office.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), which is leading the investigation into the incident, said a report on the cause could take up to 18 months.

NBC Los Angeles said its NewsChopper4, which also operated for the Spanish-language Telemundo 52, was in the city’s suburb on Tuesday night reporting on a deadly bus crash that had killed two people.
Several other news helicopters were also overhead in the area.
The driver in the bus crash has since been arrested on suspicion of murder.
The cause of the aircraft crash has not yet been determined, officials said. Marciniw was reportedly an experienced pilot.
Mejia, the pedestrian killed when the helicopter came down, was a Guatemalan national who had only arrived in Los Angeles this week, according to NBC News.
Investigators were collecting data at the crash site on Wednesday. The helicopter will be moved to a secure facility, where the NTSB will continue to examine the wreckage.
The NTSB is an independent US government agency that investigates civil transportation accidents.
During a news conference on Wednesday, the NTSB’s investigator-in-charge Fabian Salazar said a preliminary report on the incident would be issued within 30 days.
A final report on the cause of the crash could take up to 18 months to be released, he added.
Asked by reporters about video circulating on social media that appears to show the helicopter’s viewpoint in the seconds before the crash, Salazar said it is so far “probably the most important evidence” for investigators.
In addition to the three people killed, two others were taken to the hospital.
During emotional live coverage on NBC4 on Tuesday night, veteran news anchor Colleen Williams confirmed it was the local news station’s helicopter that crashed.
While news coverage via helicopter is not necessarily unique to Los Angeles, it is more prominent compared to other major metropolitan areas.
LA local news stations regularly break into live programming to broadcast high-speed police pursuits from the air, fly over wildfires and show accidents, protests, and holiday traffic jams in often unscripted, real-time aerials.
Taken From BBC News
American News
Trump criticises Supreme Court after justices block mail-in ballot restrictions
The US Supreme Court has rejected President Donald Trump’s plan to restrict voting by mail before November’s midterm elections, in a setback for the White House.
The justices upheld a federal judge’s order that temporarily blocked the US Postal Service (USPS) from moving forwards with new requirements for postal ballots.
Trump called the decision a blow to his political party. “Republicans just got another bad decision from the United States Supreme Court,” the president wrote on Truth Social.
One legal group said in response that the decision would prevent the USPS from “sowing chaos in our elections”.
The ruling is unlikely to be the final word on the matter. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative, agreed with the ruling, but indicated he might later rule in Trump’s favour as litigation in the case continues.
Trump, who argued the rules would combat electoral fraud, signed an executive order in March that directed the USPS to deliver ballots only to voters on lists of citizens.
Legal challenges argued that the move violated states’ constitutional rights to run elections.
Election officials from 24 Democratic-led states and the District of Columbia also warned that the proposed changes were not ready for implementation and could prevent ballots from reaching voters.
Meanwhile some Republican-led states, including Florida, Louisiana, and Montana, supported the president in court filings.
Justice Kavanaugh wrote in the opinion that there was “at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service’s statutory authority”. But he argued that “applying the rule in the 2026 elections would be arbitrary and capricious”.
Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, also conservatives, dissented. They wrote that the challenge to Trump’s order was a “Hail Mary pass” that was unlikely to be successful ultimately.
In a Truth Social post, Trump criticised the top court’s Monday decision, as well as other key rulings against him such as striking down his executive order to limit birthright citizenship, and also a key element of his tariff policies.
“The Supreme Court has really let our Country down!” he wrote, alleging some justices were “totally unable to show the courage necessary to save our America”.
“These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court,” the president wrote.
However, several states like Oregon, Washington, and Colorado rely heavily or entirely on mail ballots for their elections, requiring Republicans to use the system as well.
Seven Republican state election officials warned the justices that allowing significant changes to mail ballot rules so close to the midterm elections would “lead to mistakes, delays, and confusion”.
Local election officials told the BBC this week they were proceeding as normal but had begun drafting contingency plans in case the court upended existing mail ballot procedures.
The rule changes would have resulted in “thousands of people disenfranchised” in Cherokee County, Georgia, its election director Anne Dover told the BBC. The heavily Republican county voted 69% for Trump in the 2024 election, in which about 10,000 of its residents voted by mail, according to Dover.
Monday’s decision earned praise from legal groups who have challenged other aspects of the Trump agenda.
“Today’s Supreme Court decision prevents the US Postal Service from sowing chaos in our elections,” Trevor Potter, president of Campaign Legal Center, said in a statement.
Since returning to the White House, Trump has sought to restrict voting by mail. While he himself has voted by post, he has long claimed this method allows non-citizens to cast ballots and is prone to fraud.
In March’s executive order, the president directed USPS to introduce unique barcodes on postal ballot envelopes.
State and local election officials would also be required to supply information to an online portal about voters who receive mail ballots.
Twenty-three states and Washington DC sued to stop Trump’s order.
The postal workers’ union also said clerks could not be trained in time for the election.
In court filings, the Trump administration maintained the new USPS rules were constitutional.
It said states “cannot choose to use the federal mails to carry out their elections but then insist that their election-related mail is somehow exempt from the Postal Service’s rule-making authority, conferred by Congress”.
Boston-based Judge Indira Talwani imposed an injunction on 4 September blocking Trump’s order. She ruled that implementing the measures close to November’s elections could disenfranchise voters.
Last week, a US appeals court refused to put Judge Talwani’s order on hold.
On Sunday, another federal judge, Judge Carl Nichols, ruled against Trump’s order.
Some states have already begun distributing mail-in ballots ahead of the midterm elections, which will decide which party controls Congress.
Some states that had not yet sent ballots had already printed their election materials, and changing their voting materials would have required starting the process anew.
“Hypothetically, if we did have to implement, it would have a huge impact, and it would be very costly. At this point, we already have our envelopes printed,” Josh Zygielbaum, the Adams County, Colorado clerk and recorder, told the BBC the day before the Supreme Court ruled.
Colorado conducts its elections by mail, and Zygielbaum had been creating contingency plans in the event its voting system had been disrupted.
The Supreme Court decision is not the first setback on postal ballots for Trump.
In June, the justices ruled that states may count ballots postmarked by election day, rejecting the Trump administration’s push to block votes being tallied when they are received after polls close.
Trump has previously made false claims that he lost the 2020 election owing to widespread electoral fraud.
Taken From BBC News
American News
Israel and the U.S.: All Set to Starve Iran?
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : Military strikes, economic strangulation and an open-ended American deployment risk turning pressure on Tehran into collective punishment of ordinary Iranians—and dragging the entire Middle East deeper into war.
The United States and Israel appear to be constructing two arms of the same pressure campaign against Iran. Israel threatens overwhelming military destruction if Tehran again attacks it, while Washington is tightening Iran’s economic isolation and maintaining a formidable military presence across the Middle East.
One attacks the state’s physical capacity; the other squeezes its financial oxygen. Between them stand nearly 90 million Iranian citizens who will ultimately bear much of the cost.
Washington describes its strategy differently. The Trump administration argues that sanctions, blockade and selective military pressure are intended to force Tehran to change its behavior and return to negotiations. Yet the scale and duration of the campaign increasingly raise a disturbing question: at what point does pressure on a government become collective punishment of a population?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has used unusually uncompromising language about America’s economic objective. Washington has launched an intensified campaign against Iran’s international financial and commercial lifelines, targeting shipping, aviation, technology, gold, digital assets and financial networks. Foreign companies and banks dealing with sanctioned Iranian entities face the enormous leverage of America’s dollar-based financial system.
The strategic objective is clear: deprive Tehran of revenue, foreign currency and international commercial access until economic pressure forces political concessions. But economies are not governments.
When oil revenue collapses, ordinary citizens lose purchasing power. When a currency depreciates, food, medicine and imported necessities become more expensive. When companies cannot trade, workers lose jobs. When banking channels close, families and legitimate businesses suffer alongside the institutions Washington actually intends to punish. Economic warfare may produce fewer dramatic television images than missiles, but its human consequences can penetrate every household.
That is why the language of economic strangulation is so troubling. Iran’s leadership may be the declared target, but Iranian families inevitably become part of the battlefield. A pensioner purchasing medicine, a mother buying groceries or a worker trying to support his family cannot isolate himself from inflation, shortages and economic contraction merely because sanctions were designed to influence his government. Meanwhile, military pressure is not disappearing.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has extended major American deployments in the Middle East into 2027. Approximately 50,000 U.S. military personnel and 19 warships remain positioned across the region, supported by fighter aircraft, air-defense systems and other forces. The deployment unmistakably demonstrates that America is preparing for a prolonged confrontation. That creates an extraordinary contradiction.
President Donald Trump speaks about limiting military involvement and relying increasingly upon economic pressure, while the Pentagon maintains the infrastructure required for blockade enforcement, missile interception, protection of commercial shipping and renewed offensive operations. This is not disengagement. It is military readiness combined with economic warfare.
Israel adds another dimension. Israeli leaders have again threatened devastating attacks against Iranian military and other strategic infrastructure. After months of conflict, the danger is that the distinction between military pressure and destruction of the economic foundations sustaining civilian life becomes progressively blurred.
Recent American strikes demonstrate how quickly civilians can become victims even when governments insist that they are attacking military targets. Iranian authorities reported civilian deaths and injuries following the latest U.S. operations, including casualties associated with a reported strike near a wedding gathering. Washington says it does not intentionally target civilians and is investigating that incident. But for the dead and wounded, intention does not reverse the consequences.
The greater danger is what happens if economic strangulation and repeated military destruction continue simultaneously. Iran possesses one of the Middle East’s largest populations. It also occupies perhaps its most strategically consequential geography. The Strait of Hormuz sits beside its coastline, while American bases, Gulf oil installations, shipping routes and some of the world’s largest energy facilities lie within the broader theater.
Iran cannot match the United States conventionally. It cannot match Israel’s combination of advanced aircraft, intelligence capabilities and sophisticated missile defenses. But it can retaliate asymmetrically. That retaliation would not fall primarily upon the American homeland thousands of miles away. It would fall upon the Middle East.
This is the strategic nightmare now developing. If American and Israeli pressure devastates Iran, Tehran may respond by expanding attacks against military facilities, shipping and infrastructure throughout the Gulf. Iran could be destroyed while simultaneously inflicting enormous damage upon neighboring economies. Everybody loses.
The assumption that sufficient suffering will automatically produce a government favorable to Washington is equally dangerous. Iranian history should discourage such confidence. Foreign intervention helped overthrow democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953. A quarter-century later, the Shah—Washington’s principal regional ally—was swept away by a revolution that produced a government dramatically more hostile to the United States.
Destroying today’s Iranian state would offer no guarantee that tomorrow’s Iran would be moderate. The opposite could occur.
If central authority fractures, organized government and conventional armed forces could give way to militias, underground networks and radical organizations. A centralized adversary can negotiate, sign agreements and enforce them. A fragmented landscape of armed groups may produce decades of asymmetric warfare. Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan should have taught the world that destroying institutions is much easier than constructing stable replacements. There is also a moral question America cannot escape.
For generations, the United States presented human rights, civilian protection and international law as essential elements of its global leadership. American influence came not only from aircraft carriers and dollars but from universities, technology, culture, diplomacy, alliances and the belief—sometimes justified, sometimes contested—that American power represented certain universal principles.
That soft power is an enormous strategic asset. Every civilian casualty, every image of devastated infrastructure and every Iranian family pushed toward desperation risks consuming another portion of it. The Muslim world therefore cannot remain a spectator.
Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Pakistan, Qatar, Oman, the UAE and other influential states should urgently seek an emergency session of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. The purpose should not be rhetorical condemnation. It should be the construction of a serious diplomatic initiative demanding both Israel and USA to stop this unfortunate war of choice otherwise face kinetic, economic, investment, trade and diplomatic offensive from all the Muslim states whether small or big.
The Middle East is approaching an escalation trap in which every strike supposedly justifies another strike, every sanction invites countermeasures and every temporary pause becomes an opportunity to replenish weapons and identify new targets. Sooner or later, somebody must interrupt that cycle.
If diplomacy fails and military destruction combined with economic suffocation, history may judge that Iran was not the only casualty. The victims could include regional stability, the global economy, America’s soft power and the possibility of a generation of peace in the Middle East.
The time to prevent that outcome is now—before pressure intended to change Iran ends up destroying far more than Iran.
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