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Is the US really heading into a recession?

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During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump promised Americans he would usher in a new era of prosperity.

Now two months into his presidency, he’s painting a slightly different picture.

He has warned that it will be hard to bring down prices and the public should be prepared for a “little disturbance” before he can bring back wealth to the US.

Meanwhile, even as the latest figures indicate inflation is easing,analysts say the odds of a downturn are increasing, pointing to his policies.

So is Trump about to trigger a recession in the world’s largest economy?

Markets fall and recession risks rise

In the US, a recession is defined as a prolonged and widespread decline in economic activity typically characterised by a jump in unemployment and fall in incomes.

A chorus of economic analysts have warned in recent days that the risks of such a scenario are rising.

A JP Morgan report put the chance of recession at 40%, up from 30% at the start of the year, warning that US policy was “tilting away from growth”, while Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, upped the odds from 15% to 35%, citing tariffs.

The forecasts came as the S&P 500, which tracks 500 of the biggest companies in the US sank sharply. It has now fallen to its lowest level since September in a sign of fears about the future.

Line chart showing the S&P 500 share index from 11 September 2024 to 11 March 2025. On 11 September 2024, the index was at 5,554. It gradually rose from there, increasing more sharply after the US election on 5 November, and eventually hitting a peak of 6,144 on 19 February. It then started to fall sharply, reaching 5,572 on 11 March 2025.

The market turmoil is being driven partly by concerns about new taxes on imports, called tariffs, which Trump has introduced since he took office.

He has hit products from America’s three biggest trade partners with the new duties, and threatened them more widely in moves that analysts believe will increase prices and curb growth.

The latest official inflation figures in the US showed the rate of price increases cooling in February, however.

Prices were up 2.8% over the 12 months to February, down from 3% in January, the Labor Department said.

Still, Trump and his economic advisers have been warning the public to be prepared for some economic pain, while appearing to dismissthe market concerns – a marked change from his first term, when he frequently cited the stock market as a measure of his own success.

“There will always be changes and adjustments,” he said last week, in response to pleas from businesses for more certainty.

The posture has increased investor worries about his plans.

Goldman Sachs last week raised its recession bets from 15% to 20%, saying it saw policy changes as “the key risk” to the economy. But it noted that the White House still had “the option to pull back if the downside risks begin to look more serious”.

“If the White House remained committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data, recession risk would rise further,” the firm’s analysts warned.

Tariffs, uncertainty and slowing growth

For many firms, the biggest question mark is tariffs, which raise costs for US businesses by putting taxes on imports. As Trump unveils tariff plans, many companies are now facing lower profit margins, while holding off on investments and hiring as they try to figure out what the future will look like.

Investors are also worried about big cuts to the government workforce and government spending.

Brian Gardner, chief of Washington policy strategy at the investment bank Stifel, said businesses and investors had thought Trump intended tariffs as a negotiating tool.

“But what the president and his cabinet are signalling is actually a bigger deal. It’s a restructuring of the American economy,” he said. “And that’s what’s been driving markets in the last couple of weeks.”

Bar chart showing actual and forecast US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for 2024 and 2025. The figures were: Q1 2024 (1.6%), Q2 2024 (3%), Q3 2024 (3.1%), Q4 2024 (2.3%),Q1 2025 (0.4%), Q2 2025 (0.9%), Q3 2025 (1.8%), Q4 2025 (1.8%).

The US economy was already undergoing a slowdown, engineered in part by the central bank, which has kept interest rates higher to try to cool activity and stabilise prices.

In recent weeks, some data suggests a more rapid weakening.

Retail sales fell in February, confidence – which had popped after Trump’s election on several surveys of consumers and businesses – has fallen, and companies including major airlines, retailers such as Walmart and Target, and manufacturers are warning of a pullback.

Some analysts are worried a drop in the stock market could trigger a further clampdown in spending, especially among higher income households.

That could deliver a major hit to the US economy, which is driven by consumer spending and has grown increasingly dependent on those richer households, as lower income families face

The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, offered assurances in a speech last week, noting that sentiment had not been a good indicator of behaviour in recent years.

“Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place,” he said.

But the US economy is currently deeply linked to the rest of the world, warned Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

“The fact that tariffs could disrupt that at the same time that there were signs that the US economy was weakening anyway … is really fuelling recession fears,” she says.

Stock market in tech ripe for correction

The unease in the stock market isn’t all about Trump.

Investors were already jittery about the possibility of a correction, after big gains over the last two years, driven by the sharp run-up in tech stocks fuelled by investor optimism about artificial intelligence (AI).

Chipmaker Nvidia, for example, saw its share price jump from less than $15 at the start of 2023 to nearly $150 in November of last year.

That type of rise had stirred debate about an “AI bubble” – with investors on high alert for signs of it bursting, which would have a big impact on the stock market, regardless of the dynamics in the wider economy.

Now, with views of the US economy darkening, optimism about AI is getting even harder to sustain.

Tech analyst Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management wrote on social media this week that his optimism had “taken a step back” as the chance of a recession increased “measurably” over the past month.

“The bottom line is that if we enter a recession, it will be extremely difficult for the AI trade to continue,” he said.

Taken From BBC News

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgr21jjwg4wo

American News

How Zohran Mamdani Charmed Trump

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The meeting between President Donald Trump and New York’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani was far more than a routine courtesy call. It became a living testimony to the unusual chemistry that unfolded between the two most powerful figures in the United States. One commands the entire nation — the President of the United States, the de facto king of the world. The other is now the political sovereign of New York City — the financial capital of the planet, a city richer than many countries, and home to more than eight million people who struggle daily with rent, transportation, unaffordable healthcare, groceries, and childcare.
It was these very struggles that Mamdani turned into the core of his campaign. His promises of affordable rent, cheaper living costs, universal accessibility to basic services, and a fairer economic structure energised New Yorkers across all boroughs. Today, in the Oval Office, it became clear that those same promises had resonated with President Trump as well.
From the moment Mamdani walked into the Oval Office, his demeanour radiated calm confidence. There was nothing of the intimidated politician bracing for a clash with Trump’s famously explosive temper. His forehead shone under the lights not with anxiety, but with assurance. When both men sat before the media, Trump leaning comfortably into his chair and Mamdani standing beside him with poise, the visual alone revealed an unexpected harmony. Mamdani looked every inch a leader who believed in his mission — and had just successfully sold it to the most unpredictable president in modern American history.
Trump spoke warmly, enthusiastically, and without restraint. He welcomed Mamdani into his office “with great happiness” and declared, without hesitation, that the new mayor-elect would be “an excellent mayor” for New York. He even went further, saying he now had full confidence that Mamdani possessed the ability, capacity, and commitment to deliver everything he had promised during his campaign. Trump’s tone was not merely courteous — it was admiring.
Journalists, sensing the unusual warmth, immediately tried to provoke the president with pointed, provocative questions. One reporter reminded Trump that Mamdani had once called him a “fascist.” The remark could have triggered an eruption — Trump has unleashed furious tirades for far less. But instead, he smiled. He dismissed the insult, saying he did not feel offended at all and adding that people evolve, learn, and change with time. It was a striking moment of restraint from a man known for his instinctive aggression.
Another reporter attempted to escalate the tension further by pointing out that Mamdani had famously declared he would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu if the Israeli leader ever came to New York City. Again, Trump refused to be baited. He brushed the question aside by explaining that Mamdani, like every new leader, would learn through experience. He even drew a parallel with his own political evolution, candidly admitting that during his first term he himself was naïve and had to adjust, recalibrate, and grow with the responsibilities of office.
This calmness from Trump did not come from political calculation alone—it came from admiration. The president who had once called Mamdani a “communist,” a “danger,” and a “Democratic disaster,” now praised him openly, respecting the clarity of his mission and appreciating the resonance between their agendas. For months, Trump had campaigned on lowering inflation, reducing grocery prices, bringing down soaring mortgages, and dismantling Obamacare in favour of a more affordable system. Today, he recognised that Mamdani was fighting for the same goals within New York. It was this alignment of economic priorities that created a surprising bridge between two men who had once seemed destined to be adversaries.
Trump acknowledged that their missions were not contradictory but complementary — one applying nationally, the other locally. And this recognition brought an unmistakable sense of camaraderie to the room. Both men smiled often. Both radiated assurance. Both appreciated that their philosophies, though different in ideology, converged on the fundamental question of affordability for ordinary people. It was here that Mamdani’s charm proved itself most effective. He didn’t merely communicate policy; he made Trump see himself in the same fight.
Reporters continued probing, trying to extract conflict, but Trump controlled the entire exchange with surprising discipline. When pressed again about his earlier insults toward Mamdani — calling him communist, obnoxious, dangerous, and someone who should be deported — Trump did not retreat into excuses. Instead, he said that after meeting Mamdani, he now believed the mayor-elect would “do extremely good,” calling him good-natured, dedicated, and aligned with his own mission.
The most remarkable moment came when Trump was asked whether he would help Mamdani. Instead of distancing himself, Trump leaned forward and declared: “Not only will we help him — we will help him a lot.” That sentence alone symbolized the complete transformation of a relationship that had begun in hostility and evolved into respect.
This was not merely political politeness. It was evidence of Mamdani’s extraordinary persuasive power. He had managed to win over not just the voters of New York, but the president of the United States — a man known to bend for no one. Mamdani emerged from the meeting not as a subordinate seeking approval, but as a leader who had earned Trump’s admiration through conviction, clarity, confidence, and charm.
What makes Mamdani’s success even more compelling is his promise not to create distance between himself and the people he serves. He has pledged not to hide behind the glass ceiling of officialdom. He will not use the bulletproof mayoral limousine but will continue to ride the same subways, eat in the same restaurants, walk the same streets, and take the same buses as ordinary New Yorkers. He intends to remain accessible, exposed, and connected — experiencing firsthand the delays, the overcrowding, the rent pressures, and the daily hardships that shape the lives of millions. It is this commitment to immersion that will give him constant, unfiltered feedback as he navigates the complexities of the job.
The meeting between Trump and Mamdani ended on a note of rare optimism. A president who was once his critic is now his unexpected ally. A mayor-elect once dismissed as radical is now seen as a capable, persuasive, solutions-driven leader. With the backing of the president and the trust of his constituents, Mamdani now prepares to take office with unprecedented momentum.
If today was any indication, New York City is about to witness a political chapter defined not by confrontation, but by confidence, clarity, and collaboration — led by a mayor who has already demonstrated the rare ability to charm even the most uncharmable man in American politics.

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Trump’s Ukraine-Russia Peace Gamble

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : Since the beginning of his presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly declared that he alone could stop the Russia-Ukraine war “within 24 hours.” He spoke with confidence, even certainty, that his personal rapport with President Vladimir Putin, combined with his ability to “make deals,” would secure a swift end to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Trump openly expressed frustration, dismay, and even embarrassment over the continuation of the war and insisted that had he been in office earlier, he would have prevented the escalation altogether. Throughout 2024, he reminded Americans that he had stopped wars before, pressuring Pakistan and India, Sudan, Cambodia, and even the Congo into ceasefires by using the leverage of U.S. influence, IMF support, World Bank loans, military cooperation, and trade access. These were smaller nations with limited military capability, fragile institutions, and deep dependence on Western goodwill. In those cases, American pressure worked because the countries lacked the strength to resist.
But Ukraine and Russia were not Congo or Cambodia. They were not dependent battleground states that Washington could pressure into compliance. Ukraine, despite its limitations, had the unwavering support of the United States, the European Union, the U.K., Canada, Japan, and NATO. And Russia was not a minor player—it remained a nuclear superpower with the world’s fifth-largest military, a vast industrial base, and deep historical, cultural, and security ties to Ukraine. Trump discovered upon taking office that this war was not within his unilateral control. It was a conflict shaped by entrenched interests, strategic insecurities, clashing national identities, and the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and the West.
At the same time, the Middle East war presented a different strategic landscape. Trump used every tactic—pressure, incentives, sanctions, diplomacy—to check Israel’s actions, expose its vulnerabilities, and bring forward facts the world had previously ignored. He openly criticized Netanyahu’s government and highlighted how Israel’s operations in Gaza and the West Bank were eroding its global legitimacy. The brutal images emerging from Gaza—the starvation, bombing of civilian areas, and displacement of millions—forced a global reckoning. Trump’s intervention, his threats, and his diplomatic maneuvers produced results that many had considered impossible: halting Israel’s ambitions to absorb the West Bank, blocking the total annexation of Gaza, and revealing the scale of Israel’s military and political overreach. In this sense, Trump achieved in Israel-Hamas what he could not achieve in Ukraine: he forced restraint on a U.S. ally by exposing its excesses.
But Ukraine was fundamentally different, and this difference ultimately defeated Trump’s early optimism. Russia was not reliant on American aid. Its economy, though strained by sanctions, continued to function through energy exports to China, India, and dozens of African and Latin American states. Militarily, Russia absorbed heavy losses yet maintained industrial capacity far greater than Ukraine’s. It possessed nuclear leverage and geopolitical depth. For Russia, Ukraine was not a distant battleground—it was the core of its security doctrine, a red line stretching back centuries. Putin made it clear repeatedly that he would not withdraw without guarantees: a neutral Ukraine, a legally binding prohibition on NATO membership, recognition of Crimea as Russian, acceptance of Russian control over parts of Donbas, and limits on Ukraine’s military size. These were not requests—they were conditions.
Trump’s draft peace plan, a 28-point proposal circulated quietly among Western allies, reflected this new reality. The plan barred Ukraine from joining NATO permanently, capped its military at roughly 600,000 troops, froze frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, accepted Russian control over Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, and prohibited NATO bases in Ukraine. In exchange, the United States offered security guarantees, economic assistance, and a reconstruction fund estimated between $100–200 billion. Russia would receive sanctions relief and the possibility of rejoining the G8, provided it adhered to the agreement.
To Moscow, the plan offered almost everything it had demanded. To Kyiv, it was tantamount to national surrender.
President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal immediately, declaring that Ukraine would “never trade sovereignty for temporary peace” and that no Ukrainian leader had the moral authority to cede legally recognized territory. His security chief called the plan “unacceptable, humiliating, and dangerous.” European nations also rejected the deal. Their strategic objective remained unchanged: keep Ukraine armed, keep Russia contained, and maintain a buffer zone between Moscow and the heart of Europe. Many in the EU believed that Russia had to be weakened militarily so it could not threaten Eastern Europe again. Whether this goal was realistic or not, Europe’s stance meant Trump could not pressure Ukraine the way he had pressured smaller states in the past.
China, for its part, observed quietly but carefully. Beijing’s position has long been consistent: territorial integrity matters, nuclear escalation must be avoided, and stability in Eastern Europe is necessary for Chinese economic corridors and long-term plans. China did not openly endorse Trump’s plan, but it viewed parts of it—especially neutrality for Ukraine—as aligned with its own position. Yet China also understood that a forced peace lacking Ukrainian consent would collapse, creating long-term instability detrimental to global markets and Chinese strategic interests. China thus indirectly pushed for a negotiated settlement, not an imposed one.
The truth is that no peace plan can succeed without three elements: the willingness of Ukraine to accept painful compromises, the willingness of Russia to halt further ambitions, and the willingness of Europe and the United States to accept a rebalanced security order in Eastern Europe. Trump’s plan offered a blueprint but lacked political acceptance from the actors who mattered most. That is why, despite months of intense diplomatic activity, despite pressure, promises, warnings, and deadlines, the war continued into November with no sign of a ceasefire.
But despite the disappointments, one conclusion remains unavoidable: the longer this war continues, the greater the disaster for all parties involved. Ukraine loses thousands of lives, millions of citizens, and the foundations of its economy. Russia remains trapped in sanctions, global isolation, and perpetual confrontation. Europe pays the price through energy shocks, military spending, and strategic vulnerability. The United States drains its treasury while gaining no guarantee of long-term security benefits. China watches with concern as global markets fluctuate and instability spreads across Eurasia.
Peace—even an imperfect peace—will pay dividends for all. War guarantees only destruction. A negotiated settlement, no matter how difficult, is the only path that prevents decades of further bleeding. For Ukraine to rebuild, for Russia to rejoin the world, for Europe to regain stability, and for the international community to escape the shadow of escalation, diplomacy must prevail. The alternative is perpetual conflict—a burden the world cannot afford.

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Trump–MBS: A Trillion-Dollar Partnership

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The grand state dinner hosted by President Donald Trump for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was more than a ceremonial display of power; it marked a turning point in global politics and signaled a new era in the U.S.–Saudi relations. In a night filled with diplomatic theatre and historic announcements, Trump declared that Saudi Arabia had fulfilled and expanded its earlier commitments, raising its total promised investment in the United States from USD 600 billion to a staggering USD 1 trillion. At a time when global markets remain volatile and geopolitical tensions are escalating, such an unprecedented financial commitment is not just an economic boost — it is a strategic recalibration of the world’s most critical alliances.
Trump also announced a dramatic upgrade in Saudi Arabia’s status, declaring the Kingdom a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) — a designation reserved for America’s most trusted security partners. Only 20 countries hold this status, and the inclusion of Saudi Arabia marks one of the most consequential geopolitical decisions of this decade. The designation opens doors for enhanced defense cooperation, priority access to advanced U.S. weapons, joint research programs, and expanded military training — all of which further elevate Saudi Arabia as the anchor of Middle Eastern security. With the region facing ongoing instability — from the Gaza crisis to shifting alliances after the Abraham Accords — Trump’s move makes clear that the U.S. intends to rely on Riyadh as its principal stabilizer.
In an even more startling announcement, Trump revealed that the United Nations had approved a global “Board of Peace,” an unprecedented multinational initiative intended to oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and the broader region. Trump further stated that he would serve as the head of this board, with internationally recognized leaders from across continents joining the council. Although the details remain vague, the symbolism was unmistakable: Trump sought to position the United States not simply as a mediator, but as the architect of a new peace framework for the Middle East — one that would integrate Arab leadership rather than marginalize it. For decades, peace in the region was considered either unattainable or politically inconvenient. Yet Trump declared with confidence that “for the first time, peace is established in the Middle East,” contrasting sharply with decades of diplomatic stagnation.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in his address, praised Trump for the warm reception and the trust placed in Saudi Arabia’s expanding global role. He highlighted Vision 2030’s successes — from the opening of the Kingdom to foreign tourism and investment to the acceleration of tech innovation and industrial diversification. According to MBS, the infusion of Saudi capital into critical U.S. sectors such as artificial intelligence, space exploration, advanced defense manufacturing, cyber security, and electric vehicles would create tens of thousands of high-quality American jobs while strengthening the long-term security and economic resilience of the United States. Trump echoed this sentiment, saying the partnership “strengthens American security because money is coming in, jobs are being created, and our industries are expanding.”
Yet instead of covering the trillion-dollar investment, the MNNA designation, or the UN-endorsed peace initiative, much of the American media fixated on a brief, contentious moment during Trump’s interview on ABC. When the journalist pressed Trump about the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, Trump lashed out, calling her “a nasty reporter from a nasty network,” accusing her of attempting to embarrass his “honored guest.” What should have been a footnote in an evening of historic announcements became, in American media hands, the dominant headline. CNN, ABC, MSNBC, and several major outlets spent hours dissecting the exchange, replaying the clip endlessly, and debating ethical angles — while largely ignoring the massive geopolitical and economic significance of the evening.
This lopsided coverage exposes a deeper truth about American media culture: controversy sells better than diplomacy. A trillion-dollar bilateral agreement — one of the largest foreign investment pledges in U.S. history — received only a fraction of the airtime given to a tense reporter-president exchange. A United Nations-backed peace council, a designation elevating Saudi Arabia into America’s closest security circle, and a USD 20–40 billion U.S. weapons package designed to rebalance Middle Eastern military power were overshadowed by a single provocative question about a crime committed six years earlier.
None of this is to diminish the seriousness of the Khashoggi affair or the suffering of his family. But the stark imbalance raises a legitimate question: Is the American media more interested in sensationalism than in informing the public about transformative geopolitical developments? The disproportionate reaction confirms why Trump has spent years criticizing mainstream networks, often calling them biased, selective, and adversarial to constructive diplomacy.
The agreement between Trump and MBS goes far beyond ceremonial declarations. The multi-billion-dollar U.S. arms sale — including advanced missile defense systems, long-range precision munitions, and next-generation surveillance platforms — will fundamentally upgrade Saudi Arabia’s military posture. This brings significant consequences: Israel, long accustomed to enjoying unchallenged regional military superiority, will now face a more balanced power environment. For the first time in decades, another Middle Eastern country will possess the capability to deter Israeli unilateralism. This shift could compel Israel to adopt more cautious strategies, knowing that its regional monopoly on advanced weaponry is no longer absolute.
The partnership will also embolden Saudi Arabia — and other Gulf nations — to question the necessity of hosting extensive U.S. military bases on their soil. These bases, originally justified as security guarantees for Gulf monarchies, have increasingly functioned as outposts for protecting Israel’s regional interests. With Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities rising and U.S.–Saudi relations deepening, these states may eventually demand that the U.S. limit or restructure its military footprint in the region.
Economically, the ripple effects are global. A stable Middle East, backed by enhanced Saudi defense capacity and U.S.-Saudi political alignment, ensures more reliable oil supply routes, reduced price volatility, and protection for energy-dependent developing countries. Many nations across Asia and Africa spend up to 40 percent of their foreign exchange reserves on oil imports; even modest price spikes can destabilize their economies. Therefore, any partnership that promotes stability in the Gulf directly strengthens global economic security.
Trump described his May visit to Saudi Arabia as “out of this world,” praising the royal welcome and the Kingdom’s commitment to investing USD 600 billion within its borders under Vision 2030. Now, with an additional USD 400 billion pledged toward U.S. sectors, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as not only a Middle Eastern powerhouse but a central pillar in America’s industrial future. MBS has repeatedly emphasized that the Kingdom seeks partnerships that uplift both sides, and this vast investment — one of the largest in modern financial history — underscores his ambition to place Saudi Arabia at the forefront of global transformation.
The new U.S.–Saudi partnership carries enormous promise. It symbolises not only economic cooperation but a redefined approach to security, diplomacy, and global leadership. It signals to Israel that unchecked impunity will no longer be tolerated, and to the wider world that peace in the Middle East is no longer a distant dream but an emerging reality shaped by political courage rather than political convenience. As the strategic marriage between Trump and MBS deepens, one can hope that this partnership ushers in a lasting period of stability, prosperity, and fairness — a Middle East where power is balanced, justice prevails, and nations cooperate not through coercion, but through shared vision and mutual interest.

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