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How Iran War Is Grounding the World Economy

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The war in the Middle East has now moved far beyond the battlefield. What initially appeared as a regional military confrontation has evolved into a systemic global crisis—one that is tightening its grip not only on governments and markets, but on ordinary people struggling to sustain daily life. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with targeted disruption of oil infrastructure, has triggered a cascading breakdown across energy supply chains, aviation networks, and tourism-dependent economies. The world is no longer merely watching a war; it is experiencing its economic consequences in real time.
At the center of this unfolding crisis lies the global jet fuel market—a sector often overlooked in geopolitical analysis, yet one that sustains the arteries of globalization. Prior to the conflict, global jet fuel demand had recovered strongly, reaching approximately 107 billion gallons annually in 2024, with projections climbing to nearly 7.2 million barrels per day by early 2026. This demand was supported by a finely balanced supply network spanning North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Today, that balance has been violently disrupted.
The Middle East, which typically contributes around 20% of global jet fuel supply, has seen a dramatic collapse in its effective output. War-related damage to refineries, combined with the strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has removed an estimated 320,000 tons of jet fuel per day from global circulation. At the same time, approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity across the الخليج region has either been shut down or rendered inoperable. This is not a marginal disruption—it is a structural shock to the global energy system.
Jet fuel prices have responded accordingly. Within weeks, prices surged from approximately $85–90 per barrel to well above $200, representing one of the sharpest increases in modern energy market history. For the aviation industry, where fuel accounts for up to one-third of operating costs, this is nothing short of catastrophic. Airlines are no longer operating in a demand-driven environment; they are navigating a survival crisis defined by cost pressures and supply scarcity.
The impact is most visible in Europe, where the aviation sector—and by extension, the tourism economy—is deeply exposed. Europe imports roughly 25–30% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf. With supply lines disrupted, airlines have begun aggressive capacity cuts. Major carriers have canceled thousands of flights ahead of the critical summer season. Lufthansa alone has reportedly removed tens of thousands of flights from its schedule, while other carriers are grounding aircraft, optimizing routes, and operating only essential services.
This contraction strikes at the heart of Europe’s economic model. Tourism is not a peripheral sector; it is a foundational pillar. The continent generates between $600 and $700 billion annually from tourism, supporting millions of jobs and contributing significantly to GDP in countries such as Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. This entire ecosystem depends on affordable, reliable air travel. Without it, hotels remain empty, restaurants lose customers, and entire regional economies begin to contract.
The crisis is not confined to Europe. In Asia-Pacific, where airlines depend heavily on Middle Eastern fuel flows, the situation is even more acute. Carriers have entered emergency operational modes, securing limited fuel supplies and preparing for prolonged disruption. Even in the United States—buffered by its status as a major producer—airlines face massive financial strain. Leading carriers have warned of billions of dollars in additional fuel costs, threatening profitability and forcing difficult operational decisions.
What makes this crisis particularly dangerous is its compounding nature. Aviation is not only about passenger mobility; it is a critical component of global trade. High-value goods, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive cargo depend on air freight. As flight capacity shrinks, supply chains tighten, prices rise, and inflationary pressures intensify. Indeed, energy analysts have already warned that this crisis could add nearly 0.8% to global inflation—an alarming figure in an already fragile economic environment.
Meanwhile, the maritime dimension of the conflict is adding further instability. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has become a contested zone. Tankers are being intercepted, diverted, and in some cases seized. Insurance costs have soared, discouraging shipping companies from entering the region. Even where fuel is available, the ability to transport it safely has become uncertain.
China’s position offers a temporary buffer but not immunity. With substantial strategic reserves and a diversified energy portfolio, including large-scale investments in renewable energy, China can withstand short-term shocks. However, as the world’s manufacturing hub, any prolonged disruption will inevitably impact its output. A slowdown in Chinese production would have global consequences, affecting supply chains and economic growth worldwide.
This brings into focus a critical strategic question: what is the underlying objective of this disruption? One interpretation—gaining increasing traction—is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a byproduct of conflict, but a strategic lever. By constraining Middle Eastern supply, global demand is redirected toward alternative producers, most notably the United States. Over the past decade, the U.S. has transformed into a leading exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas. In a constrained market, its leverage increases significantly.
For Iran, the situation presents a profound strategic dilemma. Maintaining the closure of the Strait exerts pressure on adversaries but simultaneously inflicts economic pain on the wider world. Reopening the waterway, on the other hand, could reposition Iran as a stabilizing force while exposing the broader dynamics at play. It would restore global supply flows, ease economic pressures, and potentially shift international opinion.
From a strategic standpoint, reopening Hormuz could neutralize the leverage derived from disruption. It would deny the United States to exploit scarcity and would reestablish a degree of economic normalcy. More importantly, it would demonstrate that stability—not disruption—is the stronger strategic position in an interconnected global system.
The world today is facing more than an energy crisis. It is confronting the fragility of a system built on uninterrupted flows—of fuel, goods, people, and capital. When one critical node collapses, the effects ripple outward, disrupting industries and livelihoods across continents.
If the current trajectory continues, the consequences will be severe. Aviation networks may contract further, tourism economies could enter recession, and global trade may slow significantly. Inflationary pressures will rise, and economic uncertainty will deepen. What began as a regional conflict risks becoming a global economic turning point.
The solution lies not in escalation, but in recalibration. Restoring the free flow of energy through critical waterways, stabilizing supply chains, and reengaging in meaningful diplomacy are essential steps. The alternative is a prolonged period of economic disruption with far-reaching consequences.
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a geographic chokepoint. It has become the pivot on which the global economy now turns.

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Aftermath of Iran-US War and A. J. Muste’s Quotes:

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There is No Way to Peace, Peace is the Way

Akhtar Hussain Sandhu

Chicago (USA)

[email protected]

Iran-US War and Islamabad peace facilitation prompt me to recall the famous quotes of Abraham Johannes Muste, a US-based civil rights and anti-nuclear-weapons activist. To him, nothing can lead to peace, but peace, in fact, facilitates a positive change in relations therefore, not circumstances or ways, but ‘peace’ itself proves a nucleus of attention in the crisis-packed situation in a society or world. Social scientists usually count the factors and circumstances leading to peace in a conflict at the societal and international level, but A. J. Muste believes that ‘peace’ is the greatest force that attracts rival protagonists to create understanding and end conflict. A. J. Muste opposed World War I and the US-Vietnam War and also opposed nuclear weaponry. He worked zealously and nonviolently for labor rights and civil liberties in the United States. The US-Israel led war against Iran on 28 February 2026 caused a catastrophic results and the continuous bombing destroyed Iran’s civil infrastructure, and approximately 180 schoolgirls were killed in an aerial attack. It was condemned by the masses in the US and other countries. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz as a war tactic, which created a global oil crisis, and all countries’ economies experienced an overnight major setback. The US President changed his initial war objectives and focused on the reopening of the Hormuz because multiple nations were bashing the US President for his unethical war mongering ambition, which caused the energy crisis. US President Donald Trump first decided to isolate the US from this dangerous drive and declared that the affected countries should send their troops to open this sea route for their vessels, but in April 2026, he issued a furious statement that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would be eliminated from the earth. It caused panic in the world because this message meant a nuclear attack on Iran. If it happened, any power could justify the use of nuclear weapons against the rival country, and the world could be an unsafe and hellish place. It could also convince every country, including Iran, to have nuclear weapons in future because having nuclear weaponry was to be left as the only option to survive against a rival nuclear power. However, Pakistan, China, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, enjoying cordial relations with the US and Iran, ultimately brought a truce of two weeks, and both countries consented to dialogue in Islamabad on 10 April. Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, PM Mian Shahbaz Sharif, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar from Pakistan played a pivotal role in the ongoing parleys between the rival leaders. The ceasefire created an environment in which both camps claimed victory, and both seemed busy proving their military strength and muscles, but despite all, they are heading towards peace through dialogue. Threatening Statements by the US President even before a day before the negotiations is an evidence that the agreement (if it is concluded) would be presented as Iran’s surrender before the US might. A. J. Muste quotes that not circumstances, but ‘peace’ itself pushed the rival forces away from the battlefield. Once, a reporter questioned his presence as a protest in front of the White House: ” Can you change the White House? A. J. Muste replied. ‘I don’t do this to change the country. I do this so the country would not change me.’ The ruling elite always use the name of ‘state’ to change the people as it desires, but the state’s predilections change with the passage of time; therefore, to curb the citizens proves havoc for the social fabric. Dissatisfied masses can hardly produce a beneficial human resource that truly serves a nation. A. J. Must says that the problem after a war is that the victor shows the fight has brought a bright future, and war has paid the nation a lot. In their perception, the war was a new form of reform that would ensure prosperity and psychological pride for the people. Iran and the USA have both been claiming victories and asserting that the conflict has brought blessings. Both countries closed their eyes to the human sufferings and loss of innocent lives, wealth, economy, infrastructure, and hatred generated against each other. Peace proved its importance and motivated them to approach the neutral countries for a ceasefire, which means the war had crippled both the rivals to the extent that they were unable to talk even of ‘peace’, which shows the weakness and impotency of the so-called victors. A. J. Muste opines that no big power in the war accepts itself as an aggressor; instead, it is always the rival that is the aggressor.’ However, I think that every fighting country thinks of itself as a big force, therefore both become ‘big powers’ under their own justifications. Look at the arguments of the US and Iran that have been justifying their righteousness and aggression toward the rival according to their own national narratives. None of them is ready to accept any lapse on the side. Perhaps it happens amid internal and external threats to the political leadership, who twist events and arguments to secure their political position and national morale. This is another form of stress and aggression against peace, humanity, and righteousness. For example, many US military and other officials refused to attack Iran who must be consulted about their current thinking on their decision. A. J. Muste says that peace is impossible if people are only concerned with peace. A war is an outcome of different ways of life. If people desire to attack war, they have to attack that way of life.’ A. J. Muste here can be disagreed because way of life is always different, which does not mean to be in a battlefield all the time. I think he wants to say that if people dislike war, they should change their vision to one of living in societies with divergent ways of life. This quote reflects Muste’s desire that prosperity and civil liberties can change society, and by this, war maneuvering can be suffocated. AJ Must was a member of the Fellowship of Reconciliation in the US, which struggled against war hysteria and the violation of civil liberties and for labor rights. He delivered lectures in different universities on the nonviolent struggle for rights. He joined the Montgomery Bus Boycott, led by Martin Luther King, Jr., in 1955. A. J. Muste’s struggle is still admired by Americans and Europeans because he worked selflessly for humanity, peace, and the dignity of all races.     

Writer is a US-based Historian & Colmunist

9 April 2026

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PM Shehbaz, Starmer Hold Key Call on Regional Security UK Backs Pakistan’s Peace Initiatives and Ceasefire Efforts

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Prime Minister’s Office
Media Wing

ISLAMABAD: 10 April 2026.

Prime Minister’s Telephone Call with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif received a telephone call from Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, His Excellency Keir Starmer, this evening.

Prime Minister Starmer deeply appreciated Pakistan’s effective diplomatic efforts in facilitating the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and the resumption of dialogue. He felicitated Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on hosting the peace negotiations in Islamabad and offered his best wishes for the success of this endeavor.

Reaffirming Pakistan’s sincere commitment to regional peace and stability, Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the joint statement issued by key European and international leaders, including Prime Minister Starmer, endorsing Pakistan’s peace initiatives.

Both leaders emphasized the importance of ensuring that the ceasefire remains in place and creates the necessary conditions for lasting peace and stability in the region.

The two leaders agreed to work together to lend fresh impetus to the longstanding friendly ties between Pakistan and the United Kingdom, across all spheres of mutual interest.

The Prime Minister reiterated his cordial invitation to Prime Minister Starmer to undertake an official visit to Pakistan.

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How International Law Is Being Violated in the Iran War

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
This statement, attributed to Donald J. Trump, is not merely political rhetoric; it is a declaration that carries profound legal implications under international law. When a head of state publicly threatens to target infrastructure such as power plants and bridges—facilities essential for civilian survival—it raises immediate concerns under the United Nations Charter and the Geneva Conventions. The language itself reflects a shift from calibrated diplomacy to coercive escalation, and in legal terms, it may constitute a prohibited “threat of force,” especially if the action implied would itself be unlawful.
The war that erupted following the February 28 strikes on Iran has quickly transformed into a multi-front regional conflict, but beyond the battlefield it has triggered a deeper and more troubling crisis—the erosion of international law. What is unfolding today is not merely a contest of military strength between the United States, Israel, and Iran; it is a test of whether the global legal framework, painstakingly built after the devastation of the Second World War, still holds meaning. When examined through the provisions of the UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions, and established customary norms, the conduct of all major actors reveals patterns that raise serious legal concerns.
At the foundation of international law lies Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which clearly prohibits both the use and the threat of force against the sovereignty of any state. If the United States, acting in coordination with Israel, initiated or expanded military operations against Iran without explicit authorization from the United Nations Security Council or without satisfying the strict conditions of self-defense under Article 51, then such actions fall into a legally contentious domain. Even more significant is the nature of public rhetoric accompanying the war. Threats to destroy critical infrastructure—electric grids, bridges, and economic lifelines—are not simply political statements; they constitute “threats of force,” which international jurisprudence, including rulings of the International Court of Justice, treats as violations when the implied action itself would be unlawful.
The conduct of hostilities is governed by the Geneva legal regime, which imposes strict obligations on all parties irrespective of their cause. Under Common Article 3, civilians must be protected from violence and inhumane treatment. Additional Protocol I reinforces this protection through Article 48, which mandates the principle of distinction—requiring parties to differentiate between civilian and military targets. Article 51 prohibits direct attacks on civilians and explicitly forbids disproportionate strikes that cause excessive civilian harm. Reports of civilian casualties, including the killing of schoolgirls in the early phase of the conflict, raise serious questions about whether these principles are being upheld. The law does not prohibit war, but it strictly regulates how war is conducted, placing civilian protection at its core.
Equally critical is the protection of civilian infrastructure. Additional Protocol I, Article 52 safeguards civilian objects, while Article 54 prohibits attacks on objects indispensable to civilian survival, such as water systems, food supplies, and electricity networks. The threat or destruction of power plants and bridges—facilities that sustain entire populations—may therefore constitute violations unless they are directly and exclusively used for military purposes. Furthermore, Geneva Convention IV, Article 33 prohibits collective punishment, meaning that actions which impose suffering on entire civilian populations as a means of pressure are unlawful. When infrastructure destruction leads to widespread deprivation of electricity, water, or food, the legal implications become profound.
Israel’s conduct across multiple theatres—whether in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, or the West Bank—must also be assessed within this framework. Numerous United Nations resolutions emphasize the obligation to protect civilians and avoid disproportionate use of force, particularly in densely populated areas. Under Geneva Convention IV, occupying powers are required to ensure the safety and welfare of civilians (Articles 27–34) and are prohibited from extensive destruction of property not justified by military necessity (Article 53). Repeated allegations of high civilian casualties and large-scale destruction, if substantiated, suggest tension not only with specific provisions but with the broader humanitarian principles underpinning international law.
Iran, while invoking its right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, is similarly bound by legal constraints. The right of self-defense is not absolute; it must meet the criteria of necessity and proportionality, as affirmed in ICJ jurisprudence, including the Nicaragua case. Iran’s cross-border strikes targeting U.S. bases and Israeli interests in third countries raise serious concerns regarding the violation of state sovereignty, a principle protected under Article 2(4). Attacks conducted without the consent of host states or beyond immediate defensive necessity risk breaching this foundational rule. Additionally, indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks—particularly those affecting civilian areas—would violate Additional Protocol I, Articles 51 and 57, which require both proportionality and precautions in attack.
The expansion of the conflict across the Middle East further complicates the legal landscape. Lebanon, Iraq, the Gulf states, and beyond have been drawn into hostilities, often suffering civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. This widening of the war raises issues related to neutrality and non-intervention, as states not originally party to the conflict become affected. The use of proxy forces and non-state actors adds another layer of complexity, yet international law remains clear: states can be held responsible for actions carried out under their direction or control, as outlined in the International Law Commission’s Articles on State Responsibility.
At the strategic level, Iran’s approach reflects a calculated effort to impose costs rather than seek immediate victory. By targeting economic chokepoints such as energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz, and by employing asymmetric warfare tactics, Iran aims to globalize the consequences of the conflict and force diplomatic engagement. While this strategy may be effective in military terms, it must still operate within the boundaries of international law. Economic disruption that disproportionately harms civilians or neutral states risks crossing into unlawful territory, just as conventional military excess does.
The greatest weakness, however, lies not in the law itself but in its enforcement. The UN Security Council remains constrained by geopolitical divisions, with veto powers often blocking decisive action. The International Criminal Court faces jurisdictional limitations and political resistance, delaying accountability. There is no standing international enforcement mechanism capable of swiftly investigating violations or compelling compliance. Sanctions are inconsistently applied, monitoring systems are fragmented, and victims lack immediate access to reparations. This gap between law and enforcement undermines deterrence and allows violations to persist.
Strengthening enforcement is therefore essential. A voluntary restraint on veto use in cases of mass atrocities could enable the Security Council to act more effectively. Permanent, independent investigative mechanisms with real-time capabilities could ensure that evidence is preserved and violations are documented. Expanding ICC jurisdiction, supporting hybrid tribunals, and establishing automatic sanctions linked to verified breaches would enhance accountability. A global reparations framework could ensure that victims are compensated without delay, while embedding legal compliance systems within military operations could promote adherence to humanitarian norms. Above all, robust mediation backed by enforceable guarantees could redirect conflicts toward diplomacy rather than escalation.
The Iran war ultimately reveals a sobering reality: international law is only as strong as the willingness of states to uphold it. The United States and Israel face scrutiny for the use and threat of force and for potential violations of proportionality and civilian protection. Iran, while asserting self-defense, confronts its own legal challenges related to sovereignty and the conduct of hostilities. Across all actors, the most alarming trend is the diminishing protection of civilians—the very principle that international humanitarian law was designed to safeguard.
If this trajectory continues, the consequences will extend far beyond this conflict. The erosion of legal norms risks creating a world in which power dictates outcomes and law becomes secondary. The Iran war, therefore, is not just a regional confrontation; it is a defining moment for the credibility of international law itself. The choice before the global community is clear: reinforce the rules that govern war, or witness their gradual disappearance in the face of unchecked force.

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