Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : When tragedy struck in Pahalgam on April 22, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized the moment—not for justice or truth, but for electoral gain. Assuming the roles of victim, judge, and executioner, Modi promptly blamed Pakistan without investigation, forensic inquiry, or evidence. In doing so, he shielded India’s bloated security establishment from scrutiny and used the incident to ignite nationalist passions just ahead of elections.
On May 12, in his first national address since the escalation began, Modi resurfaced to glorify “Operation Sindoor” as a surgical strike on terror. He painted a picture of technological precision, national unity, and decisive leadership. He boasted of eliminating over 100 terrorists and destroying terror camps in Bahawalpur and Muridke, celebrating India’s new doctrine of proactive defense. But the actual events bore little resemblance to this narrative.
Modi claimed that Operation Sindoor had carved a new benchmark in India’s fight against terror, framing it as a new normal. What he didn’t admit was the colossal failure of India’s intelligence and defense apparatus, and the devastating retaliation India faced from a militarily and economically smaller Pakistan. Instead of acknowledging the risks he plunged the region into—and the global threat such recklessness posed—he offered a hollow narrative that concealed more than it revealed.
In reality, India’s multi-pronged strikes by air, land, and sea killed no terrorists. They destroyed civilian homes, mosques, and empty fields. No confirmed terrorist casualties were reported. It was a spectacle designed for optics, not justice.
Then came the shock: on the very first day of hostilities, six Indian fighter jets, including three much-hyped Rafales, were downed by Pakistan’s lean but precise Air Force. A smaller, resource-constrained Pakistan had exposed the hollowness of India’s military bravado. Indian forces launched waves of drone and missile strikes, but Pakistan’s air defenses stood firm. Retaliatory strikes by Pakistan targeted and damaged Indian military infrastructure, shaking the very myth of India’s invincibility.
Between his lines, Modi hinted at the scale of Pakistan’s retaliation. He admitted that Pakistani forces struck military bases, schools, temples, gurdwaras, and other sites—though framed them as attacks on civilians. He emphasized that India’s air defenses shot down Pakistani drones and missiles, but these assertions rang hollow against the verified losses and visible destruction within Indian territory.
What he deliberately omitted was the fact that several Indian missiles misfired and landed within Indian-administered Kashmir and East Punjab, killing and maiming civilians—a damning failure of India’s command and control systems.
Crucially, Modi ignored how India had to turn to Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to plead for de-escalation. While portraying Pakistan as the one seeking ceasefire, it was India—bloodied and embarrassed—that sought mediation. Modi attempted to mask this diplomatic retreat by saying it was Pakistan that “contacted our DGMO” and “begged for peace,” but the timeline and international reports suggested otherwise.
From May 5 to May 10, the Prime Minister vanished from public view. In those tense days of peak escalation, Modi chose silence. His disappearance was not tactical restraint but a tacit admission of miscalculation. When he finally returned to deliver his May 12 speech, it was less a declaration of victory and more an exercise in damage control.
His rhetoric turned to nuclear threats and pseudo-moral posturing. He vowed to respond to future attacks on Indian terms, claimed that India would no longer tolerate nuclear blackmail, and blurred the lines between governments and terrorists. He decried Pakistani officers for offering funeral prayers for those killed, presenting it as evidence of state-sponsored terrorism. Yet, the speech revealed more desperation than dominance.
He further championed India’s “Made in India” weapons and New Age Warfare capabilities, asserting that the operation validated indigenous defense manufacturing. However, it was evident to the world that India’s weaponry failed to protect its skies or maintain strategic superiority. Most ironically, some of those weapons malfunctioned and fell on Indian soil—a bitter embarrassment Modi dared not mention.
Perhaps the most overlooked and revolutionary aspect of this confrontation was Pakistan’s demonstration of indigenously developed soft warfare capabilities. Pakistan showcased its ability to launch effective cyberattacks, disrupt unmanned aerial vehicles midair, and induce critical errors in India’s missile command and control systems. Using precision electronic warfare tools, Pakistan successfully diverted, reprogrammed, and redirected multiple Indian missiles midflight, neutralizing their threat without conventional interception. Moreover, it identified and targeted high-value military assets in real time using its sophisticated soft skills architecture.
This capability—honed quietly over years—has now catapulted Pakistan into the ranks of countries mastering the next-generation battlefield. It may well be the first nation to have demonstrated such multi-domain, integrated, soft offensive capabilities in a live conflict. These assets played a decisive role in establishing Pakistan’s air, land, and sea superiority during the conflict, negating India’s numerical and technological advantages.
One particularly dangerous narrative that Modi had often championed before this conflict—the threat to divert rivers flowing from India into Pakistan—has now been permanently shelved. The harsh lesson taught by Pakistan during this war has ensured that weaponizing water will remain a non-option. The idea of choking Pakistan’s lifeline has backfired, permanently.
Despite his thunderous declarations, Modi could not undo the most significant outcome of this conflict: the re-internationalization of the Kashmir issue. For years, India had worked to suppress international discourse on Kashmir. But now, thanks to its own aggression, Pakistan gained sympathy, legitimacy, and diplomatic traction. U.S. President Donald Trump once again offered mediation, forcing India to confront the very topic it sought to bury.
Operation Sindoor, contrary to Modi’s celebratory framing, will be remembered not as a triumph but as a strategic blunder. It exposed the limitations of India’s military, the hollowness of its regional hegemony claims, and the perils of using warfare as an electoral tool.
India’s dream of uncontested regional supremacy has been reduced to rubble. Its myth of military superiority lies shattered. The chest-thumping nationalism that sought to project dominance has instead exposed deep vulnerabilities. From this humiliation, India may take years to recover—if at all. For now, the illusion of the subcontinent’s sole superpower has gone up in smoke, replaced by wreckage, remorse, and rhetorical retreat.

Drones, Rafales, JF-17s, and scathing rebukes — India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states, witnessed one of their biggest escalations last week. While the neighbours are not new to conflict, this time, the breakdown in their relations was different, given the frequency and intensity of the aggression.

It began with the horrific killing of 26 tourists at a hill station in the Indian-occupied Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan for the attack, an accusation the latter denies. Islamabad has since called for an international independent probe into the massacre.

However, on the night of May 6-7, New Delhi took things a step forward and launched a series of air strikes on Pakistan, resulting in civilian casualties. Both sides then exchanged missiles, which stretched over the week. It took American intervention for both sides to finally drop their guns.

On Saturday, when tensions between the two countries peaked, US President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire had been reached between India and Pakistan.

However, as a Dawn editorial puts it, “While foreign friends can certainly help create a conducive atmosphere, it is Islamabad and New Delhi that will have to do the heavy lifting themselves to secure peace.”

Here’s a timeline of how the latest conflict unfolded:

April 22: Gunmen shot and killed at least 26 tourists at Pahalgam resort in Indian-held Kashmir. At least 17 others are wounded. A group called Kashmir Resistance, which India accuses Pakistan of backing, claims the attack.

April 23: Pakistan’s foreign office released a statement expressing concern at the loss of tourists’ lives in the attack.

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In swift measures taken following the attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan with immediate effect. The Attari border check post was closed, and Pakistanis in India under the Saarc Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) had 48 hours to leave the country, while others could return by May 1. Defence personnel at the Pakistani High Commission in India were declared persona non grata and given a week to leave the country. The staff at the high commissions were also to be reduced.

Meanwhile, students from occupied Kashmir reported harassment and intimidation in other cities.

April 24: In its response, Pakistan called any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water per the IWT an “act of war”. In a slew of decisions, Islamabad suspended trade and closed the airspace with India. It also announced the closure of the Wagah border. Those who had crossed the border were ordered to return by April 30. All visas under the SVES issued to Indian nationals were cancelled with immediate effect, with the exception of Sikh religious pilgrims. Indian nationals in Pakistan at the time under SVES were instructed to exit within 48 hours.

Moreover, Pakistan also declared the Indian defence, naval and air advisers in Islamabad as persona non grata. They were directed to leave the country immediately, but not later than April 30, 2025. These posts in the Indian High Commission were deemed annulled. The support staff of these advisers were also directed to return to India. The strength of the Indian High Commission in Islamabad was to be reduced to 30 diplomats and staff members, with effect from April 30, 2025.

Meanwhile, the Indian Foreign Ministry announced that all Pakistani citizens in India must leave the country by April 29. India closed down the main border transit point and summoned Saad Ahmad Warraich, the top Pakistani diplomat in New Delhi. The Modi-led regime also blocked the Pakistani government’s X account in the country.

April 25: Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged fire overnight across the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir. Syed Ashfaq Gilani, a government official in Azad Kashmir, told AFP that there was no firing on the civilian population.

April 26: “Pakistan is open to participating in any neutral, transparent, and credible investigation (into the Pahalgam attack),” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.

He also drew a hard line on the issue of water resources, stressing continued water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty as a red line. “Water is a vital national interest of Pakistan, our lifeline,” he said. “Any attempt to stop, reduce, or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan under the Indus River Treaty would be responded to with full force and might.”

April 28: Pakistan and India continued trading fire across the Line of Control, with each blaming the other for provocation. On the other hand, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said Pakistan was ready for any incursion by India.

He added that Pakistan was on high alert and that it would only use its arsenal of nuclear weapons if “there is a direct threat to our existence”.

Separately, the Indian government banned 16 Pakistani YouTube channels on recommendations from its Ministry of Home Affairs

April 29: Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Pakistan had “credible intelligence” reports that indicated India was planning to conduct military action against Pakistan in the next 24 to 36 hours.

In a Senate session the same day, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Pakistan would not strike India but reserved the right to retaliate.

In India, Prime Minister Nar­endra Modi gave his military “operational freedom” to respond to the Pahalgam attack.

April 30: According to Associated Press of Pakistan, Pakistani security forces delivered a robust response to India’s unprovoked ceasefire violation along the LoC, destroying an Indian checkpost after late-night aggression on April 29-30.

Sources told APP that the retaliatory strikes destroyed several bunkers, including the Chakputra post in India-held Kashmir. Separately, state media also reported that a “timely and swift response” by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had forced four Indian Rafale jets to retreat.

Pakistan also briefly closed the airspace over Gilgit-Baltistan, while India shut its airspace for all Pakistan-registered aircraft, or those owned and operated by Pakistani airlines or operators, including military craft.

May 1: Army chief General Asim Munir warned that any “misadventure” by India would be met with a quick and decisive response.

“Let there be no ambiguity: any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute, and notch-up response. While Pakistan remains committed to regional peace, our preparedness and resolve to safeguard national interests are absolute,” he was quoted as saying by the Inter-Services Public Relations.

The same day, authorities stopped tourists from entering Neelum Valley and other sensitive areas near the LoC in view of the security situation. All religious seminaries in the region were also ordered to remain closed for 10 days, while the owners of hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, and marriage halls have pledged to place their establishments at the military’s disposal in case India launches an attack.

Pakistan also announced that certain sections of airspace over the two largest cities — Karachi and Lahore — would remain closed for eight hours a day throughout the month of May.

May 2: The Indian government blocked access to the official YouTube channel of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for users in India. It said the move was part of a wider crackdown on Pakistani digital content.

Separately, India also asked global multilateral agencies, including the IMF, to review funds and loans provided to Pakistan, as New Delhi sought “to corner the neighbouring state diplomatically”.

May 3: Pakistan conducted a successful training launch of the Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450 kilometres.

The missiles were not fired toward the border area with India; they were normally fired into the Arabian Sea or the deserts of the southwest Balochistan province, the Associated Press reported.

AP added that India suspended the exchange of all mail from Pakistan through air and surface routes and banned the direct and indirect import of goods from the neighbour. It also barred Pakistani-flagged ships from entering its ports and prohibited Indian-flagged vessels from visiting Pakistani ports.

May 6-7: India launched Operation Sindoor, carrying out late-night missile strikes at six Pakistani sites, including Subhan Mosque in Bahawalpur’s Ahmedpur East, Bilal Mosque in Muzaffarabad, Abbas Mosque in Kotli, Umalkura Mosque in Muridke, the village of Kotki Lohara in Sialkot district, and Shakargarh. The Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project was shelled by Indian forces as well.

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Pakistan took down five Indian jets, including three Rafale planes. Eight civilian deaths, 35 injured people and one missing person were reported.

Subsequently, the National Security Committee authorised the country’s armed forces to respond to Indian aggression at “time and manner” of their choosing, while unprovoked firing and ceasefire violations by Indian forces continued at the Line of Control.

Meanwhile, 21 airports were shut in northern and north-western parts of India until May 10.

May 8: DG ISPR said Indian drones were neutralised in the following locations: Lahore, Attock, Gujranwala, Chakwal, Rawalpindi, Bahawalpur, Miano, Chhor, and near Karachi. Four army men were injured in this “serious serious provocation” by India, according to the military spokesperson. Around 30 drones were neutralised by Pakistan.

India’s government, on the other hand, claimed that 13 civilians were killed by Pakistani fire in “ceasefire violations” along their de facto border after violence escalated into artillery shelling following Indian strikes.

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The UN renewed its call for “maximum restraint”. Countries from all over the world began talks with leadership from both countries and expressed “deep concern” over the issue, while encouraging both countries to exercise restraint. Flight operations at Karachi, Islamabad, Sialkot and Lahore airports were suspended. In Delhi, 90 flights were cancelled.

May 9: DG ISPR said Pakistan neutralised 77 Israeli drones sent by India. “We are taking each one of them out. Not one of them has been able to go back to India, and not one of them will be able to go back,” he said in a press conference.

He further stated that “if you are so fond of Pakistan firing at you, we will fulfil your demand at a time, place and means of our choosing”. He added that 33 people were slain and 76 injured in Indian attacks.

On the other hand, Pakistan postponed eight remaining matches of the Pakistan Super League X, while the Indian Premier League 2025 was suspended for a week.

May 10: India targeted the PAF’s Nur Khan (Chaklala, Rawalpindi), Murid (Chakwal) and Rafiqui (Shorkot in Jhang district) air bases, but the majority of them were intercepted by Pakistan’s air defence systems. Soon after, the Pakistan Airports Authority announced the closure of the country’s airspace till noon.

In the wee hours of the day, Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos was launched by Pakistan. In its response to Indian aggression, the military destroyed a storage site of the Brahmos missiles in India’s Beas region and the Udhampur airbase in India-occupied Kashmir as part of its retaliatory operation. According to Pakistani state media and security sources, Pakistan hit the following:

• India’s power grid
• Indian military intelligence’s training centre in IOK’s Rajouri
• KG Top Brigade Headquarters
• Uri field supply depot
• Adampur, Udhampur, Pathankot, Suratgarh, Sirsa, Bhatinda and Halwara airfields, as well as the Akhnoor aviation base
• S-400 system in Adampur,
• Brahmos storage site in Beas
• Artillery gun positions in Dehrangyari, occupied Kashmir’s Mankot
• Indian posts directly opposite in the Phuklian sector
• Rabtanwali Post, Jazeera Post Complex, Kafir Mehri, Shahpar 3, and Ghadar Top across the LoC

Amid the attacks from both ends, talks continued in the back-end. At around 5pm, US President Donald Trump announced that both India and Pakistan agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. The same was also confirmed by both the neighbours.

Air traffic across Pakistan resumed later that night.

May 11: In a press conference, DG ISPR Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry paid tribute to those who were martyred in Indian aggression and their families, while praying for the speedy recovery of the wounded.

He confirmed that Pakistan hit 26 Indian targets, including their air force and aviation bases at Suratgarh, Sirsa, Adampur, Bhooj, Nalia, Bathinda, Barnala, Halwara, Avantipura, Srinagar, Jammu, Mamoon, Ambala, Udampur and Pathankot — all of which sustained major damage. He further added that the Barhmos facilities, which had fired missiles in Pakistan and killed innocent civilians, were also destroyed.

Dawn News

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WHEN dense smoke was billowing from deadly firings across the Line of Control on Friday, smartly turned out military columns from 23 countries were paying homage at Moscow’s Red Square to the 27 million fallen men and women of the USSR who defeated Nazi Germany, captured Berlin and forced Hitler to shoot himself. Had the South Asian neighbours been more agreeably engaged than pursuing a destructive campaign against each other, the thought is too enticing to ignore that Indian and Pakistani troops would perhaps be marching in lockstep with Chinese, Russian, Uzbek, Egyptian and other comrades to pursue a new world order for equitable peace and sustainable prosperity. There are powerful antibodies stalking the possibility, however.

Mercifully, the fires have been doused in South Asia at least for now even though they were doused by the world’s most incendiary nation that ever wielded the firehose. For all their macho victory cries over claims of damage they inflicted on each other amid a display of grief and valour, India and Pakistan found themselves leaning on foreign shoulders yet again to resolve an essentially bilateral issue, illustrating not for the first time that they have not quite attained adulthood to shepherd the destiny of over a billion souls. The brokered peace, nevertheless, links the tragedy in Pahalgam with a world of power politics.

Be sanguine that the pointless flare-up wasn’t triggered by some four mysterious hate-mongers who showed up to kill innocent men in Pahalgam only to disappear without trace (as yet) in one of the world’s most militarised and policed places. That the foursome called out their victims’ religion turned into a tool to profit from with the time-tested game of identity politics. Remember that in the 2002 communal carnage in Gujarat, after a train fire tragedy in Godhra, it was Pakistan that was first named as the accused; only later mobs were unleashed on unsuspecting Muslims.

Religious politics in South Asia of the Hindu-Muslim variety was nurtured into deep fault lines by colonialism as a protection against another 1857 uprising. ‘Divide et impera’ they called it. Saadat Hasan Manto captured religious frenzy in several short stories that accompanied the violent creation of India and Pakistan. ‘Mistake’ was a story about the murder of a wrong man, the error discovered when his dead body was stripped and revealed he belonged to the killer’s community. The popular Indian leader who plies identity politics to fetch electoral windfalls was not around at the time. But he has spoken of a simpler way whereby one could identify Muslims by their attire. (And thereby also figure out the non-Muslims.) The monsters of Pahalgam missed the trick or perhaps needed an audio track for their crime.

Moscow and Beijing have found growing numbers of applicants from across the world keen to join the coalition against Western hegemony.

Step back from Pahalgam, and you might find a clearer action-reaction pattern. Pahalgam spawned a third military stand-off to involve a BRICS member. It couldn’t be a coincidence that Iran and Russia, key pillars of the coming multipolar world, are in the crosshairs of the West. Unlike the military crisis facing Iran, which has risen as a powerful symbol for the Global South, or Russia, a founding leader of BRICS, which sees itself as a pivot to a multipolar future and therefore is sought to be ‘weakened’ by the West through a grinding proxy war, the South Asian conflict disrupts BRICS more diabolically. India, a founder member of BRICS, balks at the idea of its South Asian rival joining the immensely powerful group. India is a leading member of BRICS but is increasingly perceived as its weak link. Pakistan, on the other hand, being an ardent supporter of BRICS, can become a full member only if India doesn’t obstruct the path. The Pahalgam terror attack of April 22 therefore can be explored as a trigger to sow seeds of discord in the ranks of the Global South and thereby of BRICS.

The mesmeric Victory Day celebrations at Moscow’s Red Square marked a crucial moment for BRICS, the group that terrifies Donald Trump and which Russia and China are feverishly pressing on with. Moscow and Beijing have found unexpectedly large and growing numbers of applicants from across the world keen to join the coalition against Western hegemony controlling their political and economic lives. In attendance at the Red Square to cheer the spectacular pageantry were heavyweights from the rising Global South. Xi Jinping, of course, but not to be ignored were his comrades from Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Egypt, Belarus, practically the entire Central Asian lot, but also notably, Malaysia, Myanmar and Vietnam from the Southeast Asian flank. The heads of Serbia and Slovakia, which is a Nato member, broke ranks with their Western minders to attend.

African leaders rejoiced and cheered on as Vladimir Putin put on a memorable display of music and colour that gave a new cadence to the great coming together. Stanley Kubrick’s awe-inspiring military columns in the cinematic version of Howard Fast’s Spartacus come to mind. The movie was scripted by the former head of the US communist party as an ode to the uprising of slaves against the mighty Roman Empire. The similarity with Friday’s turnout was that these soldiers, too, were celebrating the defeat of a racist regime. Not to miss the smiling face of Vladimir Lenin printed on red flags in the march past. After a long time, the communist emblem of hammer and sickle shone through the marching columns.

Missing, not unpredictably, from the celebrations was Narendra Modi. He had made up his mind to forgo the event months before the shooting war with Pakistan would happen. With the rise of Donald Trump, India has been perceived as tardy in cementing BRICS as a challenge to the West. For this alone, Modi was the winner last week, even if Pakistan claims to have fought a better war.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.