Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The United States is without question a great country. Its people are hardworking, intelligent, innovative, creative, and generous. From breakthroughs in medicine to technological revolutions in Silicon Valley, America has shaped the modern world in ways unmatched by any other nation. It remains a land where people from every nationality, race, and background are welcomed with open arms and provided with the opportunity to realize their dreams. Millions of immigrants, including myself, have experienced this spirit of hospitality and freedom, and this openness has helped make America a beacon of hope and aspiration for the entire world.
Yet today, the global balance of power is shifting rapidly, and the next two decades may define humanity’s political, economic, and technological future. At the heart of this transformation lies China, a country whose breathtaking rise over the last thirty years is unmatched in modern history and whose trajectory now threatens to challenge America’s position as the world’s leading power.
It is within this context that economists, think tanks, and policy experts around the world have debated when — and whether — China will overtake the United States as the dominant global power. The Council on Foreign Relations and Citigroup estimate that China could surpass the United States by 2035, driven by rapid technological advances, growing influence in international trade, and the vast economic ecosystem built around its Belt and Road Initiative. A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) places the crossing point around 2036 and predicts China may hold the top position for roughly two decades before the U.S. potentially regains its lead by 2057, underscoring that American decline is not inevitable if the right policies are adopted. Analysts at the RAND Corporation are more cautious, projecting that the tipping point may arrive only in the 2040s due to China’s aging population, rising debt, and slowing growth rates, but they warn that America’s relative decline accelerates if Washington fails to take decisive corrective measures. Meanwhile, The Guardian introduced the concept of “Peak China” in its 2025 economic report, suggesting that while China’s pace of expansion may eventually plateau, its technological leadership, military modernization, and deep integration with 154 countries give it an edge the United States cannot ignore. Despite differences in timelines, most credible institutions converge on one conclusion: the world is approaching a historic turning point where China could match or surpass American power, potentially redefining global leadership as early as the mid-2030s.
China’s leadership has spent decades investing heavily in its people, its industries, and its future. Millions of students were sent abroad with state support to acquire cutting-edge education and technical expertise, returning home to apply their skills to the country’s rapid technological advancement. Research centers and laboratories across the country are producing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, electric vehicles, semiconductors, biotechnology, and space exploration. With consistent policy, centralized planning, and the ability to execute at extraordinary speed, China has achieved what no other country has attempted in modern times: it has built a knowledge-driven, innovation-focused economy at a scale the world has never seen before. Today, it competes directly with the United States in nearly every strategic sector, from energy to digital technology to defense.
This progress is matched by China’s deep global outreach through the Belt and Road Initiative, which now connects more than 154 nations through infrastructure, trade, and investment partnerships. By building ports, highways, railways, energy grids, and digital corridors across Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, China has positioned itself at the center of emerging economic systems and established influence across continents. In doing so, it offers developing countries access to resources and opportunities while simultaneously expanding its own markets and soft power. Unlike coercive alliances built on dependence, Beijing presents this as a model of shared prosperity — one where growth is mutual and partnerships create new possibilities for all. This resonates deeply with many nations, especially those historically marginalized in the global economic order.
In contrast, the United States stands at a crossroads. For decades, America has been the center of global power, but over time, its overreliance on financial dominance rather than industrial capability has weakened its foundations. Much of its manufacturing base has been outsourced to China, India, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and other nations, leaving the U.S. dependent on foreign supply chains for critical products, including advanced electronics, pharmaceuticals, and energy systems. America’s global influence has long relied on the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, allowing it to print trillions without economic backing and finance its consumption and global strategy. Yet this advantage is eroding rapidly as BRICS nations, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other blocs create new frameworks for trade that bypass the dollar entirely. As countries increasingly settle energy, technology, and agricultural trades in local currencies or the Chinese yuan, Washington’s ability to shape the world economy through financial leverage diminishes year after year.
Political polarization compounds these challenges. While China moves forward with a unified vision, the United States struggles to reconcile deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans, preventing the creation of long-term strategies needed to sustain global leadership. Powerful lobbying networks and foreign influence groups, such as AIPAC, steer U.S. policy to serve external interests rather than the nation’s strategic priorities. Meanwhile, traditional allies in Europe and Canada, as well as partners in Latin America, are pursuing greater independence from Washington, no longer willing to follow policies they increasingly view as contrary to their own interests. For many across the globe, America is still admired for its innovation, opportunity, and generosity, but there is growing frustration with its history of military interventions and regime-change policies that have destabilized nations from Iraq to Syria, from Libya to Afghanistan. If the United States wants to sustain its role as a respected leader, it must abandon strategies rooted in coercion and start building partnerships grounded in trust, friendship, and mutual respect.
Yet the United States is not destined to fall behind. It still holds immense strengths — from its culture of innovation and world-class universities to its entrepreneurial spirit and unparalleled capacity to attract global talent. America’s scientific leadership, vibrant democracy, and openness to diversity remain unmatched assets. But sustaining these advantages requires decisive action and renewed purpose.
To match China’s pace and reclaim long-term competitiveness, the U.S. must invest heavily in rebuilding its domestic manufacturing base, revitalizing its infrastructure, and restoring leadership in research and development. It must reform its education system to empower a new generation of engineers, scientists, and innovators, and it must foster unity in policymaking, setting aside partisanship for strategic national goals. Most critically, America must shift from a foreign policy based on dominance to one built on equal partnerships, cooperation, and mutual growth.
China’s rise represents a once-in-a-century transformation of the global order, and whether the coming decades lead to confrontation or collaboration will depend on choices made today. If Beijing sustains its momentum and continues integrating 154 nations into its economic vision, it could emerge as the defining power of the 21st century. But China also presents itself as a nation seeking harmony, offering development opportunities rather than pursuing domination, knowing that shared prosperity fuels its own progress. Meanwhile, the United States has the ability to remain a global leader, but only if it adapts to a rapidly changing world, invests in its people, strengthens its alliances, and treats all nations with dignity, fairness, and respect.
The world stands at the threshold of a profound transformation. America’s greatness lies in its creativity, diversity, and openness, qualities that have long inspired humanity. If it can harness these strengths, end destructive foreign interventions, and focus on building lasting partnerships based on trust and care, it can chart a new path where leadership is not imposed but earned. This is the moment for the United States to rediscover its founding ideals and become not just a superpower but a partner to the world. If it fails to do so, China’s relentless rise will reshape the global balance irreversibly, and the 21st century may well belong to Beijing. But if America chooses wisely, there is room for both nations to thrive, for a multipolar world rooted in cooperation rather than conflict, and for humanity to achieve shared prosperity.

Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : On September 3, 2025, Beijing staged one of the most consequential parades in modern history — a stunning display of military power, technological mastery, and economic confidence. While commemorating the end of World War II, the underlying message was unmistakable: China, backed by its allies, is reshaping the global order, and the United States is no longer in control.
The symbolism was striking. Standing alongside Xi Jinping were Russia’s Vladimir Putin, India’s Narendra Modi, Pakistan’s Anwaar-ul-Haq, and leaders from across the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). What was once an informal alliance has now transformed into a strategic political and economic bloc. These nations, once victims of Donald Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and unilateral dictates, have now coalesced into a united front, openly rejecting Washington’s domination and charting an independent path forward.
The parade showcased China’s breathtaking technological advances and unprecedented military preparedness. Rolling past the gathered leaders were the DF-5C intercontinental ballistic missile with a staggering range of 20,000 kilometers, the road-mobile DF-61 ICBM designed for rapid deployment, and hypersonic YJ-series missiles capable of penetrating U.S. carrier strike groups at Mach speeds. Among the most discussed revelations were the LY-1 laser systems capable of disabling drones, satellites, and ballistic projectiles within seconds; autonomous submarine drones like the AJX-002 designed for stealth nuclear delivery; swarm-capable torpedo-shaped sea drones; AI-powered “robot wolves” engineered for reconnaissance and battlefield dominance; and the Type-100 intelligent battle tank — a next-generation armored platform integrating real-time data with precision strike capabilities. China’s fully operational nuclear triad of land-based missiles, submarine-launched warheads, and air-deployed systems was on full display, demonstrating its complete strategic deterrence readiness.
For decades, the Pentagon believed U.S. technological superiority was untouchable. But Beijing’s show of force shattered that illusion. Analysts in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo were forced to confront an undeniable reality: China can now match or exceed U.S. capabilities in precision strike, strategic range, and integrated defense. The balance of power has shifted irreversibly, forcing even America’s closest allies to reconsider where true leadership lies.
Yet China’s dominance is not based on weapons alone; it rests on a deeper foundation of economic strength. Trump’s tariffs, designed to cripple Beijing’s industrial power, instead exposed America’s own vulnerabilities. China today controls over 90 percent of global rare-earth magnet production and nearly 85 percent of semiconductor-grade mineral processing — the very materials required for smartphones, electric vehicles, AI chips, advanced computing, fighter jets, precision missiles, and hypersonic weapons. When Beijing announced export restrictions on seven critical rare-earth elements in early 2025, requiring special licenses for buyers, the shockwaves reverberated across the United States. Tesla halted electric vehicle production. Apple suspended multiple iPhone lines. Lockheed Martin delayed its F-35 fighter jet deliveries. Silicon Valley startups braced for mass layoffs. Defense contractors scrambled to secure emergency stockpiles of materials essential to sustain their production pipelines. For the first time, the United States found itself dependent on Beijing’s will to maintain the heartbeat of its technological infrastructure.
Washington responded by pouring billions into domestic rare-earth mining projects under the Defense Production Act, hoping to reduce reliance on China. But without Beijing’s decades-long refining infrastructure, recovery will take at least a decade, if not longer. Even as Trump threatened harsher tariffs to force China’s compliance, Xi Jinping did not flinch. The world saw, perhaps for the first time, that America’s economic lifeline had shifted decisively eastward.
While Washington reacted defensively, Beijing quietly built an entirely new architecture of global trade and influence. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has connected more than 150 countries via roads, railways, ports, energy pipelines, industrial zones, and digital corridors. Unlike the West’s traditional dependency model, Beijing offered investment, infrastructure, and market access on terms many developing nations found more equitable. Across Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, countries that once relied on U.S. aid and NATO trade structures are now participating in Beijing’s economic ecosystem. By empowering local economies through financing and infrastructure, China created an alternative model of prosperity — one based on cooperation rather than coercion.
India’s defiance of Washington perfectly captures this new reality. When the U.S. demanded New Delhi stop importing discounted Russian oil, India firmly rejected the ultimatum, declaring that no foreign power had the authority to dictate its survival strategy. Through partnerships with Russia, Iran, and China under SCO frameworks, India secured energy stability, modernized its infrastructure, and strengthened its role in regional connectivity projects. Russia, for its part, proved remarkably resilient against U.S. and EU sanctions. Instead of buckling under Western economic isolation, Moscow deepened its energy and defense ties with Beijing and New Delhi, shifted trade settlements into yuan and rupees, and bypassed dollar-dominated systems. This acceleration of de-dollarization weakened Washington’s financial leverage and strengthened the SCO bloc’s independence.
This alliance of Trump’s intended economic “targets” has evolved into an integrated powerhouse. The SCO bloc now represents nearly half the world’s population, accounts for 30 percent of global GDP, and controls over 40 percent of global oil and gas reserves. By aligning supply chains, financial systems, and technological ecosystems, these nations have built collective resilience capable of resisting U.S. pressure. Where Trump’s tariffs once aimed to divide and weaken, they have instead unified and empowered an alternative leadership.
At the same time, the Western bloc is fracturing. The once-cohesive alliance of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union is splintering under the weight of Trump’s unilateral policies. European nations, increasingly frustrated with Washington’s dictates on trade, defense, immigration, and foreign policy, are asserting their independence. This shift became unmistakable when Trump offered unconditional U.S. support for Israel during the Gaza conflict. The move alienated much of Europe, which faced growing public pressure over mounting civilian casualties. In a historic development, several European nations — including Germany, France, Spain, Ireland, and multiple Nordic countries — have declared their intent to recognize the State of Palestine at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly session, directly defying U.S. policy. This unprecedented divergence highlights the erosion of Washington’s influence over its closest allies and demonstrates the widening cracks within NATO’s traditional sphere.
Two competing global models are now emerging. The U.S.-led Western approach remains rooted in military interventions, sanctions, and economic dominance, using pressure to force compliance while destabilizing regions and fueling refugee crises. In contrast, the China-led model prioritizes economic inclusion, infrastructure investment, fair trade, and mutual respect for sovereignty. Developing nations across Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East increasingly see tangible benefits from Beijing’s partnerships — schools, hospitals, roads, digital connectivity — while associating Washington’s interventions with bombing campaigns, regime changes, and social collapse.
In his parade address, Xi Jinping underscored this vision of inclusive leadership, declaring that no force on Earth can stop China’s rise but emphasizing that the world is vast enough for every nation to prosper together. His message of fairness, dignity, and mutual respect resonated far beyond Beijing’s immediate circle. The SCO bloc and Belt and Road partnerships now symbolize an aspirational alternative for hundreds of millions seeking growth without subjugation, stability without domination, and prosperity without conditional dependency.
For Washington, this moment represents an existential challenge. Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and coercive diplomacy — once feared — now appear hollow against an integrated multipolar order. U.S. dominance is eroding not on the battlefield but in boardrooms, investment platforms, and supply chains. America now faces a stark choice: adapt to this transformed reality, cooperate within a new framework of equality, and rebuild global trust — or cling to outdated tools of force and economic manipulation until its influence fades into irrelevance.
On September 3, 2025, Beijing delivered a message that echoed across continents. China is no longer rising — it is leading. And it leads not through conquest but through trade, technology, investment, and inclusion. The world is reorganizing around this reality, and for the first time in a century, Washington is no longer writing the script.

Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : For the past 30 years, the United States has unintentionally paved the path for China’s meteoric rise. While America slept, content in its global dominance, China was meticulously building—quietly, efficiently, and comprehensively. And now, in 2025, the tables are turning. The U.S. is waking up to the realization that it has become alarmingly dependent on its once-silent economic rival.
China’s strategy was never haphazard. It was deliberate and state-driven. It began by creating massive industrial infrastructure at home, offering subsidies to companies, absorbing their liabilities, and providing utilities at heavily reduced costs. This resulted in the emergence of highly cost-effective yet qualitative manufacturing clusters, backed by a skilled and disciplined workforce trained through a state-supported education system. In contrast, U.S. industries were burdened with high labor costs, stringent environmental regulations, and legal hurdles. Setting up industrial infrastructure in America was a slow, expensive, and risky endeavor. Faced with this disparity, American corporations found shifting production to China not just appealing, but imperative for survival.
China’s strategy went beyond just making goods. It invited American companies to “design in the U.S., manufacture in China.” The U.S. retained the illusion of control while surrendering its industrial edge. Over time, China began replacing foreign designs with its own. It sent millions of students to top U.S. universities, many in STEM fields, and used that knowledge to build its domestic R&D base. China’s R&D spending now exceeds $460 billion annually—second only to the U.S., but growing rapidly and backed by centralized national direction.
One of the most egregious strategic errors was in the mineral and rare-earth sector. Instead of setting up refining units within U.S. borders, American firms began shipping raw materials to China for processing, lured by low costs. Today, China controls over 60% of the world’s rare earth refining capacity and 80% of global graphite processing—both critical for high-tech industries like electric vehicles, defense, and semiconductors.
China also capitalized on its dominance in global shipping. As the U.S. shipbuilding industry shrank—now accounting for less than 1% of global output—China surged ahead. Over 43% of the world’s commercial vessels are now built in Chinese shipyards. As a result, the entire global supply chain, including America’s, relies on Chinese-built vessels operating in Chinese-managed logistics routes.
As of 2024, China leads the world in AI research publications, quantum computing patents, 5G infrastructure, and has even launched its own satellite navigation system, BeiDou, which rivals America’s GPS. In semiconductors, China now dominates several parts of the value chain—from mining critical minerals to chip assembly—while the U.S. struggles to regain ground after decades of neglect.
On the energy front, China saw the future. Knowing that high-tech industries—from AI to quantum computing—require colossal amounts of power, it rapidly expanded its energy infrastructure. Between 2000 and 2023, China added over 1,200 GW of power capacity. It now has the largest solar, wind, and hydroelectric capacity in the world, along with growing nuclear and coal infrastructure. The U.S., meanwhile, has suffered from energy bottlenecks and aging grids, with nearly 70% of transmission lines more than 25 years old.
Then came China’s most brilliant geopolitical stroke—the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in 2013, BRI is a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure, trade, and development strategy connecting Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. China built highways, ports, railroads, and energy grids in 153 countries, creating a global trade and political network. The result? China no longer relied solely on exports to the U.S. Today, American demand accounts for just 12% of China’s exports—down from over 20% two decades ago.
The Trump administration attempted to reverse this trend by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, hoping to hurt China economically and financially. But it underestimated China’s resilience. Instead of collapsing, China retaliated with its own tariffs and expanded trade with other partners, particularly in the Global South.
Worse still, as China invested its trade surpluses into infrastructure and defense, the U.S. was caught off guard. China now boasts the world’s largest navy, cutting-edge hypersonic missiles, space-based sensors, and cyberwarfare capabilities. Its military is indigenous, highly disciplined, and rapidly modernizing.
Even the once-unquestioned dominance of the U.S. dollar is under threat. BRICS nations, along with others like Brazil, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia are exploring non-dollar trade settlements. If this trend continues, and the dollar loses its reserve currency status, America’s economic supremacy could be fatally undermined.
What hurts more is the realization that the U.S. lacks any meaningful leverage left both economic and military. China has become self-reliant in industrial inputs, diversified its markets through BRI, and built independent platforms in AI, defense, and digital currency.
The strength of America once lay not just in wealth, but in strategic foresight. That foresight is what’s missing now. Internal political divisions, power struggles between Congress, the Senate, and the White House, the bureaucracy, civil society and Judiciary, and a weakening consensus on national direction are all stalling progress.
Yet, all is not lost.
The United States still has world-class universities, unmatched innovative talent, abundant natural resources, and deep global alliances. What it needs is a paradigm shift—not just in economics, but in strategic, technological, and geopolitical thinking. It must rebuild its industrial base, repatriate key supply chains, invest in new power infrastructure, create its own version of BRI, and, above all, unite its political machinery toward a common national goal.
History has shown that America has the capacity to reinvent itself. From the post-WWII recovery to the space race, the U.S. has overcome structural crises before. The question is: does it still have the grit to do so now?
Time is ticking. The first step must be bold, focused, and unrelenting—because China is already racing ahead, and the window of strategic opportunity is narrowing with each passing year.