war
Iran’s Strategy: Stretch the War
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : When President Donald Trump authorized direct military confrontation with Iran alongside Israel, many strategic planners expected a short and decisive military campaign. Precision strikes, intelligence dominance, and coordinated airpower were believed capable of crippling Iranian command centers and missile infrastructure within days. Yet what was envisioned as a swift operation is increasingly evolving into a prolonged conflict with humanitarian, geopolitical, and economic consequences extending far beyond the Middle East.
For decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned that confrontation with Iran was inevitable. Several U.S. administrations resisted being drawn into a full-scale war, wary of escalation and long-term entanglement in another Middle Eastern conflict. President Trump himself had previously pledged that his presidency would avoid new wars and focus on ending the long cycle of military interventions. However, the launch of coordinated strikes against Iran marked a historic shift, transforming strategic rivalry into direct confrontation.
The early assumption that Iran would collapse under aerial bombardment has not materialized. Instead, Tehran has adopted a measured and calculated strategy. Rather than unleashing its entire missile arsenal in dramatic retaliation, it has responded gradually, sustaining pressure while preserving strategic capabilities. Instead of triggering regime instability, the conflict appears to have consolidated national sentiment—particularly after the reported killing of Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader during the opening phase of the war.
Within Iran, the death of a religious authority of such stature was expected by some analysts to create political fragmentation. Instead, it triggered widespread mobilization. In Shiite tradition, martyrdom carries profound historical and spiritual significance rooted in the memory of Karbala and the sacrifice of Imam Hussain. Mass mourning ceremonies, public processions, and national demonstrations reflected a collective resolve rather than internal collapse.
That emotional surge intensified dramatically after a tragedy that has come to symbolize the human cost of the conflict. In the southern Iranian city of Minab, a girls’ school was struck during the early days of the Israel-USA air campaign, killing more than 150 students and staff. The incident was independently confirmed by International media including Al-Jazeera and BBC. This deplorable and cruel act of Israel and the USA immediately became a powerful political and humanitarian symbol.
Images broadcast by Iranian media and reported by Al Jazeera showed thousands of mourners gathering in Minab’s central square for a mass funeral ceremony. Families held photographs of young victims while crowds chanted slogans condemning the United States and Israel.
The reaction from international institutions was swift. The United Nations human rights office called for a prompt and impartial investigation into the incident. Officials emphasized that schools, hospitals, and humanitarian facilities are protected under international humanitarian law and must not be targeted during armed conflict.
The Minab tragedy quickly resonated across the international media landscape. Major European outlets such as The Guardian, Le Monde, and Der Spiegel published editorials raising concerns about the humanitarian consequences of the escalating war. Commentaries in several European newspapers questioned whether the air campaign risked repeating the mistakes of previous conflicts in which civilian casualties undermined strategic objectives.
Public reaction extended beyond the media. Demonstrations erupted in several regions of the world. In cities across the United States—Washington D.C., New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles—anti-war protesters gathered to demand congressional oversight and an immediate halt to escalation.
Across parts of the Global South, governments including China, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, and Pakistan voiced concern about the expanding conflict. In Pakistan and Iraq, protests outside U.S. diplomatic missions turned tense as demonstrators condemned the bombing campaign and expressed solidarity with Iranian civilians.
Meanwhile, Iran’s military strategy appears rooted in endurance rather than rapid escalation. Decades of sanctions and conflict have forced the country to develop hardened infrastructure, dispersed missile systems, and underground facilities designed to survive sustained bombardment. Iranian officials and analysts sympathetic to Tehran argue that the missiles and drones seen in the early days of the war represent largely older or less sophisticated systems deliberately used in the opening phase. According to this narrative, Iran is pacing the conflict by gradually introducing more advanced and destructive missile capabilities only if the war escalates further. Such a strategy would allow Tehran to sustain pressure over time while reserving its most capable weapons for later stages, potentially targeting U.S. bases across the Middle East, Israeli infrastructure, and naval forces operating in the Persian Gulf and nearby waters.
The vulnerability of American bases across the Middle East has become increasingly evident as the war expands. Countries hosting these bases now face complex political pressures, as retaliatory attacks threaten nearby infrastructure and civilian populations.
Economically, the war carries enormous global implications. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for oil transportation. Even limited disruptions in this narrow corridor can trigger spikes in global energy prices and destabilize international markets.
Yet perhaps the most consequential development emerging from Washington is the possibility that the war could escalate beyond aerial bombing. In recent remarks, President Trump did not rule out deploying American troops on Iranian soil if military objectives cannot be achieved through air power alone. U.S. defense officials have similarly acknowledged that ground forces remain an option should the conflict expand or if key strategic targets require physical control.
The implications of such a decision would be profound. Iran is a vast country of nearly ninety million people with rugged terrain, dense urban centers, and deeply entrenched military structures. Any attempt to place foreign troops on Iranian soil would almost certainly transform the current air campaign into a full-scale regional war.
Strategic history offers sobering lessons. In Afghanistan, overwhelming aerial superiority failed to produce durable political outcomes. Military dominance on the battlefield did not translate into long-term stability, and ultimately the conflict ended with a negotiated withdrawal after two decades.
A ground war in Iran could prove even more complex. Iran possesses a much larger population, stronger state institutions, and extensive missile capabilities capable of striking across the Middle East. Military analysts warn that any foreign troop deployment could trigger prolonged insurgency, regional retaliation, and widespread disruption of global energy markets.
Iran appears to be pursuing a strategy of strategic patience. By absorbing attacks while maintaining steady retaliation, it places increasing economic and political pressure on its adversaries. Time, rather than immediate battlefield victories, becomes the decisive factor.
The tragedy in Minab illustrates how quickly humanitarian events can reshape global perceptions of a war. Images of mourning families and schoolchildren’s funerals resonate far beyond military calculations. They influence public opinion, diplomatic relationships, and the political legitimacy of those conducting the war.
What was initially framed as a short military operation has increasingly taken the shape of a war of endurance. Iran appears prepared for a prolonged confrontation built on resilience, geography, and ideological mobilization. The United States and Israel still maintain overwhelming technological and military superiority, yet superiority alone does not guarantee swift submission.
Wars that begin with expectations of rapid victory often conclude in negotiations after extended human suffering. Whether this conflict ultimately follows that path will depend not only on military strength but on political wisdom. If diplomacy re-enters the equation, escalation may still be contained. If not, the region—and perhaps the wider international system—may face months of instability with consequences reaching far beyond the battlefield.
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The war in the Middle East has now moved far beyond the battlefield. What initially appeared as a regional military confrontation has evolved into a systemic global crisis—one that is tightening its grip not only on governments and markets, but on ordinary people struggling to sustain daily life. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with targeted disruption of oil infrastructure, has triggered a cascading breakdown across energy supply chains, aviation networks, and tourism-dependent economies. The world is no longer merely watching a war; it is experiencing its economic consequences in real time.
At the center of this unfolding crisis lies the global jet fuel market—a sector often overlooked in geopolitical analysis, yet one that sustains the arteries of globalization. Prior to the conflict, global jet fuel demand had recovered strongly, reaching approximately 107 billion gallons annually in 2024, with projections climbing to nearly 7.2 million barrels per day by early 2026. This demand was supported by a finely balanced supply network spanning North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Today, that balance has been violently disrupted.
The Middle East, which typically contributes around 20% of global jet fuel supply, has seen a dramatic collapse in its effective output. War-related damage to refineries, combined with the strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has removed an estimated 320,000 tons of jet fuel per day from global circulation. At the same time, approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity across the الخليج region has either been shut down or rendered inoperable. This is not a marginal disruption—it is a structural shock to the global energy system.
Jet fuel prices have responded accordingly. Within weeks, prices surged from approximately $85–90 per barrel to well above $200, representing one of the sharpest increases in modern energy market history. For the aviation industry, where fuel accounts for up to one-third of operating costs, this is nothing short of catastrophic. Airlines are no longer operating in a demand-driven environment; they are navigating a survival crisis defined by cost pressures and supply scarcity.
The impact is most visible in Europe, where the aviation sector—and by extension, the tourism economy—is deeply exposed. Europe imports roughly 25–30% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf. With supply lines disrupted, airlines have begun aggressive capacity cuts. Major carriers have canceled thousands of flights ahead of the critical summer season. Lufthansa alone has reportedly removed tens of thousands of flights from its schedule, while other carriers are grounding aircraft, optimizing routes, and operating only essential services.
This contraction strikes at the heart of Europe’s economic model. Tourism is not a peripheral sector; it is a foundational pillar. The continent generates between $600 and $700 billion annually from tourism, supporting millions of jobs and contributing significantly to GDP in countries such as Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. This entire ecosystem depends on affordable, reliable air travel. Without it, hotels remain empty, restaurants lose customers, and entire regional economies begin to contract.
The crisis is not confined to Europe. In Asia-Pacific, where airlines depend heavily on Middle Eastern fuel flows, the situation is even more acute. Carriers have entered emergency operational modes, securing limited fuel supplies and preparing for prolonged disruption. Even in the United States—buffered by its status as a major producer—airlines face massive financial strain. Leading carriers have warned of billions of dollars in additional fuel costs, threatening profitability and forcing difficult operational decisions.
What makes this crisis particularly dangerous is its compounding nature. Aviation is not only about passenger mobility; it is a critical component of global trade. High-value goods, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive cargo depend on air freight. As flight capacity shrinks, supply chains tighten, prices rise, and inflationary pressures intensify. Indeed, energy analysts have already warned that this crisis could add nearly 0.8% to global inflation—an alarming figure in an already fragile economic environment.
Meanwhile, the maritime dimension of the conflict is adding further instability. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has become a contested zone. Tankers are being intercepted, diverted, and in some cases seized. Insurance costs have soared, discouraging shipping companies from entering the region. Even where fuel is available, the ability to transport it safely has become uncertain.
China’s position offers a temporary buffer but not immunity. With substantial strategic reserves and a diversified energy portfolio, including large-scale investments in renewable energy, China can withstand short-term shocks. However, as the world’s manufacturing hub, any prolonged disruption will inevitably impact its output. A slowdown in Chinese production would have global consequences, affecting supply chains and economic growth worldwide.
This brings into focus a critical strategic question: what is the underlying objective of this disruption? One interpretation—gaining increasing traction—is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a byproduct of conflict, but a strategic lever. By constraining Middle Eastern supply, global demand is redirected toward alternative producers, most notably the United States. Over the past decade, the U.S. has transformed into a leading exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas. In a constrained market, its leverage increases significantly.
For Iran, the situation presents a profound strategic dilemma. Maintaining the closure of the Strait exerts pressure on adversaries but simultaneously inflicts economic pain on the wider world. Reopening the waterway, on the other hand, could reposition Iran as a stabilizing force while exposing the broader dynamics at play. It would restore global supply flows, ease economic pressures, and potentially shift international opinion.
From a strategic standpoint, reopening Hormuz could neutralize the leverage derived from disruption. It would deny the United States to exploit scarcity and would reestablish a degree of economic normalcy. More importantly, it would demonstrate that stability—not disruption—is the stronger strategic position in an interconnected global system.
The world today is facing more than an energy crisis. It is confronting the fragility of a system built on uninterrupted flows—of fuel, goods, people, and capital. When one critical node collapses, the effects ripple outward, disrupting industries and livelihoods across continents.
If the current trajectory continues, the consequences will be severe. Aviation networks may contract further, tourism economies could enter recession, and global trade may slow significantly. Inflationary pressures will rise, and economic uncertainty will deepen. What began as a regional conflict risks becoming a global economic turning point.
The solution lies not in escalation, but in recalibration. Restoring the free flow of energy through critical waterways, stabilizing supply chains, and reengaging in meaningful diplomacy are essential steps. The alternative is a prolonged period of economic disruption with far-reaching consequences.
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a geographic chokepoint. It has become the pivot on which the global economy now turns.
There is No Way to Peace, Peace is the Way
Akhtar Hussain Sandhu
Chicago (USA)
Iran-US War and Islamabad peace facilitation prompt me to recall the famous quotes of Abraham Johannes Muste, a US-based civil rights and anti-nuclear-weapons activist. To him, nothing can lead to peace, but peace, in fact, facilitates a positive change in relations therefore, not circumstances or ways, but ‘peace’ itself proves a nucleus of attention in the crisis-packed situation in a society or world. Social scientists usually count the factors and circumstances leading to peace in a conflict at the societal and international level, but A. J. Muste believes that ‘peace’ is the greatest force that attracts rival protagonists to create understanding and end conflict. A. J. Muste opposed World War I and the US-Vietnam War and also opposed nuclear weaponry. He worked zealously and nonviolently for labor rights and civil liberties in the United States. The US-Israel led war against Iran on 28 February 2026 caused a catastrophic results and the continuous bombing destroyed Iran’s civil infrastructure, and approximately 180 schoolgirls were killed in an aerial attack. It was condemned by the masses in the US and other countries. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz as a war tactic, which created a global oil crisis, and all countries’ economies experienced an overnight major setback. The US President changed his initial war objectives and focused on the reopening of the Hormuz because multiple nations were bashing the US President for his unethical war mongering ambition, which caused the energy crisis. US President Donald Trump first decided to isolate the US from this dangerous drive and declared that the affected countries should send their troops to open this sea route for their vessels, but in April 2026, he issued a furious statement that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would be eliminated from the earth. It caused panic in the world because this message meant a nuclear attack on Iran. If it happened, any power could justify the use of nuclear weapons against the rival country, and the world could be an unsafe and hellish place. It could also convince every country, including Iran, to have nuclear weapons in future because having nuclear weaponry was to be left as the only option to survive against a rival nuclear power. However, Pakistan, China, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, enjoying cordial relations with the US and Iran, ultimately brought a truce of two weeks, and both countries consented to dialogue in Islamabad on 10 April. Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, PM Mian Shahbaz Sharif, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar from Pakistan played a pivotal role in the ongoing parleys between the rival leaders. The ceasefire created an environment in which both camps claimed victory, and both seemed busy proving their military strength and muscles, but despite all, they are heading towards peace through dialogue. Threatening Statements by the US President even before a day before the negotiations is an evidence that the agreement (if it is concluded) would be presented as Iran’s surrender before the US might. A. J. Muste quotes that not circumstances, but ‘peace’ itself pushed the rival forces away from the battlefield. Once, a reporter questioned his presence as a protest in front of the White House: ” Can you change the White House? A. J. Muste replied. ‘I don’t do this to change the country. I do this so the country would not change me.’ The ruling elite always use the name of ‘state’ to change the people as it desires, but the state’s predilections change with the passage of time; therefore, to curb the citizens proves havoc for the social fabric. Dissatisfied masses can hardly produce a beneficial human resource that truly serves a nation. A. J. Must says that the problem after a war is that the victor shows the fight has brought a bright future, and war has paid the nation a lot. In their perception, the war was a new form of reform that would ensure prosperity and psychological pride for the people. Iran and the USA have both been claiming victories and asserting that the conflict has brought blessings. Both countries closed their eyes to the human sufferings and loss of innocent lives, wealth, economy, infrastructure, and hatred generated against each other. Peace proved its importance and motivated them to approach the neutral countries for a ceasefire, which means the war had crippled both the rivals to the extent that they were unable to talk even of ‘peace’, which shows the weakness and impotency of the so-called victors. A. J. Muste opines that no big power in the war accepts itself as an aggressor; instead, it is always the rival that is the aggressor.’ However, I think that every fighting country thinks of itself as a big force, therefore both become ‘big powers’ under their own justifications. Look at the arguments of the US and Iran that have been justifying their righteousness and aggression toward the rival according to their own national narratives. None of them is ready to accept any lapse on the side. Perhaps it happens amid internal and external threats to the political leadership, who twist events and arguments to secure their political position and national morale. This is another form of stress and aggression against peace, humanity, and righteousness. For example, many US military and other officials refused to attack Iran who must be consulted about their current thinking on their decision. A. J. Muste says that peace is impossible if people are only concerned with peace. A war is an outcome of different ways of life. If people desire to attack war, they have to attack that way of life.’ A. J. Muste here can be disagreed because way of life is always different, which does not mean to be in a battlefield all the time. I think he wants to say that if people dislike war, they should change their vision to one of living in societies with divergent ways of life. This quote reflects Muste’s desire that prosperity and civil liberties can change society, and by this, war maneuvering can be suffocated. AJ Must was a member of the Fellowship of Reconciliation in the US, which struggled against war hysteria and the violation of civil liberties and for labor rights. He delivered lectures in different universities on the nonviolent struggle for rights. He joined the Montgomery Bus Boycott, led by Martin Luther King, Jr., in 1955. A. J. Muste’s struggle is still admired by Americans and Europeans because he worked selflessly for humanity, peace, and the dignity of all races.
Writer is a US-based Historian & Colmunist
9 April 2026
war
PM Shehbaz, Starmer Hold Key Call on Regional Security UK Backs Pakistan’s Peace Initiatives and Ceasefire Efforts
Prime Minister’s Office
Media Wing
ISLAMABAD: 10 April 2026.
Prime Minister’s Telephone Call with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom
Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif received a telephone call from Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, His Excellency Keir Starmer, this evening.
Prime Minister Starmer deeply appreciated Pakistan’s effective diplomatic efforts in facilitating the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and the resumption of dialogue. He felicitated Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on hosting the peace negotiations in Islamabad and offered his best wishes for the success of this endeavor.
Reaffirming Pakistan’s sincere commitment to regional peace and stability, Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the joint statement issued by key European and international leaders, including Prime Minister Starmer, endorsing Pakistan’s peace initiatives.
Both leaders emphasized the importance of ensuring that the ceasefire remains in place and creates the necessary conditions for lasting peace and stability in the region.
The two leaders agreed to work together to lend fresh impetus to the longstanding friendly ties between Pakistan and the United Kingdom, across all spheres of mutual interest.
The Prime Minister reiterated his cordial invitation to Prime Minister Starmer to undertake an official visit to Pakistan.
Part 2-Muslim-Sikh Harmony in Punjab: Akhtar Hussain Sandhu with Arshdeep Kaur Battu in a TV Interview on Sanjha TV (Canada)
Navruz & Timur’s Empire: A Kaleidoscope of Cultures Blooms at Uzbekistan’s University of Journalism
How Iran War Is Grounding the World Economy
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