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The Dollar’s Fall and China’s Rise: A New Global Order in the Making

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The tectonic plates of global finance are shifting, and the tremors are already rattling the foundations of the old world order. China, once the eager buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, has decisively turned away from financing what it now perceives as an empire in decline. This is not merely a change in investment strategy—it is a bold geopolitical maneuver. The steady offloading of U.S. debt, the pivot to real assets, and the pursuit of infrastructure diplomacy all signal that Beijing is no longer willing to play a game rigged in favor of the dollar. Instead, China is building an alternate system—one that does not revolve around the whims of Washington and the Federal Reserve.
At the height of globalization, China accumulated vast dollar reserves by running a consistent trade surplus. For years, Beijing funneled these reserves into U.S. Treasury bonds, effectively lending its savings to fund America’s debt-fueled lifestyle. As of 2025, China holds $759 billion in U.S. securities, down from over $1.3 trillion a decade earlier. The trend is unmistakable and accelerating. In just one month between November and December 2024, China slashed its holdings by $9.6 billion. Once the second-largest holder of American debt after Japan, China is now liquidating these IOUs with a clear message: enough is enough.
What has triggered this shift is not just economic prudence but strategic awakening. The U.S. has weaponized the dollar through financial sanctions, arbitrary asset freezes, and unrestricted monetary expansion. A former Federal Reserve chairman once admitted that America meets global dollar demand not through productivity or resource backing, but by simply printing money. This privilege of issuing the world’s reserve currency allowed the U.S. to import goods from across the globe without producing equivalent value—exporting paper in exchange for products. For decades, China tolerated this imbalance. But now, it has chosen to weaponize its surplus not for savings, but for strategic leverage.
Instead of buying paper promises that yield 3 percent and risk sanctions, China is pouring its reserves into tangible power. It is stockpiling copper, lithium, cobalt, oil, gas, and soybeans—commodities that can’t be frozen by a Western bank or devalued in a Wall Street crisis. These are not merely stores of value—they are instruments of economic sovereignty. Simultaneously, China has ramped up its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a masterstroke of infrastructure diplomacy. Through roads, ports, power grids, and telecom corridors, China exchanges capital for commodity access and geopolitical loyalty. Unlike the IMF, which offers austerity and lectures, China offers roads and development.
I recall attending a high-level academic workshop in Beijing some years ago, where a Chinese professor openly admitted: “We have so much foreign exchange reserve, we didn’t know what to do with it. So we decided to invest it in eliminating poverty at home and controlling resources abroad.” That statement, casual yet profound, encapsulated the essence of China’s pivot. Today, the results are evident. From Latin America to Africa, China is deeply embedded in infrastructure, logistics, and critical mineral extraction. It is building railways in Kenya, ports in Sri Lanka, and digital corridors across Central Asia—all bankrolled by dollars it once recycled into U.S. debt.
China is also quietly dismantling the dollar-based trade system. It has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Brazil, and more. The objective is clear—not to dethrone the dollar globally overnight, but to bypass it in key trade corridors. Each swap, each RMB-denominated energy deal, chips away at dollar hegemony. In parallel, China is investing aggressively within its borders—funneling its surplus into semiconductor independence, high-speed rail networks, renewable energy grids, satellite systems, and next-generation internet infrastructure. These are not profit-driven investments; they are sovereignty-driven—designed to build strategic autonomy.
The U.S., meanwhile, remains entrapped in an illusion of infinite liquidity. With inflation on the rise and interest rates elevated, the Federal Reserve is still printing money to sustain demand and fund its staggering $35.5 trillion debt. Yet even as the U.S. issues more bonds, major buyers like China are walking away. This signals a profound crisis of confidence in the dollar system. America’s reliance on external creditors, particularly for cheap manufactured goods and critical supply chains, is its Achilles’ heel. Ironically, many of these industries were once outsourced to China. The U.S. imports not just consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals, but even core components like semiconductors and rare earths that sustain its defense and tech sectors.
If the global monetary system transitions to a multipolar reserve structure—such as that envisioned by BRICS+, which includes a potential gold-backed or commodity-backed trade currency—the consequences for the U.S. would be dire. The collapse of dollar demand would render the U.S. unable to roll over its debt at low interest rates. The cascade effect would crush its financial markets, devalue its currency, and erode its global economic standing. Already the symptoms are visible: declining global trust, rising debt-to-GDP ratio, and eroding manufacturing capacity.
Yet, the United States is still a nation of remarkable creativity, diversity, and strength. It has attracted the world’s brightest minds, offered freedom to the oppressed, and powered innovation across industries. But this dream is now imperiled by systemic fiscal irresponsibility and imperial overreach. Wars fought not in American interest but on behalf of foreign allies drain both credibility and capital. Domestic infrastructure lags behind, while digital and logistical competitiveness fall further behind China’s state-led modernization surge.
If the U.S. is to remain relevant in the post-dollar world, it must act swiftly and boldly. The first step is to stop the reckless printing of unbacked currency. Fiscal discipline must be restored. The surplus must be generated through production, not printing. America must wean itself off military misadventures and redirect its resources toward rebuilding national infrastructure—high-speed rails, smart cities, digital highways, and renewable energy. It must re-industrialize, not through nostalgia, but through strategic foresight. Above all, it must begin a global campaign of resource consolidation—not with coercion, but with cooperation.
China has read the future and is writing it in copper, fiber, and cobalt—not dollars. The world is moving toward a system based on assets, production, and connectivity—not paper promises. The U.S. still has a chance to adapt, to innovate, and to lead. But time is running out. The casino is closing. The empire must now become a republic again—one grounded in productivity, not printing presses.

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Romania becomes second Nato country to report Russian drone in its airspace

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Romania says a Russian drone has breached its airspace – the second Nato country to report such an incursion.

Romanian fighter jets were in the air monitoring a Russian attack in Ukraine on Saturday and were able to track the drone near Ukraine’s southern border, the defence ministry said in a statement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the incursion could not be a mistake – it was “an obvious expansion of the war by Russia”. Moscow has not commented on the Romanian claims.

On Wednesday, Poland said it had shot down at least three Russian drones which had entered its airspace.

In its statement, Romania’s defence ministry said it detected the Russian drone when two F-16 jets were monitoring they country’s border with Ukraine, after “Russian air attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure on the Danube”.

The drone was detected 20km (12.4 miles) south-west of the village of Chilia Veche, before disappearing from the radar.

But it did not fly over populated areas or pose imminent danger, the ministry said.

Poland also responded to concerns over Russian drones on Saturday.

“Preventative operations of aviation – Polish and allied – have begun in our airspace,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a post on X.

“Ground-based air defence systems have reached the highest state of readiness.”

Earlier this week Russia’s defence ministry said there had been “no plans” to target facilities on Polish soil.

Belarus, a close Russian ally, said the drones which entered Polish airspace on Wednesday were an accident, after their navigation systems were jammed.

On Sunday, the Czech Republic announced it had sent a special operations helicopter unit to Poland.

The unit consists of three Mi-171S helicopters, each one capable of transporting up to 24 personnel and featuring full combat equipment.

The move is in response to Russian’s incursion into Nato’s eastern flank, the Czech Defence Minister Jana Cernochova said.

In response to the latest drone incursion, President Zelensky said the Russian military “knows exactly where their drones are headed and how long they can operate in the air”.

He has consistently asked Western countries to tighten sanctions on Moscow.

US President Donald Trump also weighed in on airspace breach earlier this week, saying he was “ready” to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, but only if Nato countries met certain conditions, such as stopping buying Russian oil.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and has been making slow progress in the battlefield.

Trump has been leading efforts to end the war, but Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine since President Vladimir Putin returned from a summit with Trump in Alaska last month.

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French President Emmanuel Macron appoints Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu as new Prime Minister

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Paris ( Imran Y. CHOUDHRY):- French President Macron late Tuesday appointed Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as France’s new prime minister, the country’s fourth in about a year.

Lecornu, 39, is the youngest defence minister in French history and architect of a major military buildup through 2030, spurred by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A former conservative who joined Macron’s centrist movement in 2017, he has held posts on local authorities, overseas territories and during Macron’s yellow vest “great debate”, where he managed mass anger with dialogue. He also offered talks on autonomy during unrest in Guadeloupe in 2021.

His rise reflects Macron’s instinct to reward loyalty, but also the need for continuity as repeated budget showdowns have toppled his predecessors and left France in drift.

There were celebrations across France after Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly on Monday. MPs ousted Bayrou by 364 votes to 194 over his austerity budget, which aimed to cut €44 billion to reduce the country’s national debt. ‘Farewell drinks’ for the prime minister were held in several cities, with many happy to see the back of a prime minister widely seen as having little popular mandate. However, there was concern in other quarters over France’s growing political instability.

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Superpowers That Profess Peace but Endanger the Globe

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : In a world where powerful nations proudly proclaim themselves as guardians of peace, human rights, and prosperity, humanity finds itself facing a bitter irony. The very countries that claim to champion democracy and protect innocent lives are also the largest producers and exporters of weapons of mass destruction. They present themselves as leaders of a compassionate, progressive, and peaceful global order, yet their economies thrive on creating machines of death that fuel wars, destabilize regions, and leave millions of innocent civilians suffering.
The United States sits atop this paradox, projecting itself as the ultimate protector of human rights, democracy, and freedom, while simultaneously leading the world in arms production. American defense giants like Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon Technologies), Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and General Dynamics dominate the global weapons market, generating defense revenues exceeding $246 billion annually. These corporations design and build technologies so advanced and lethal that they could destroy the world many times over. More troubling is the reality that the survival of these companies, and the jobs and profits they sustain, depends on perpetual conflict. The more wars there are, the greater the demand for their weapons, and the greater the growth of their revenues and influence. In 2024, the United States alone accounted for 43% of the world’s total arms exports, while global military spending crossed an unprecedented $2.44 trillion.
Following closely behind, the United Kingdom proudly claims the mantle of being a defender of global rights and humanitarian values, yet its defense sector plays an equally significant role in perpetuating conflicts. Its leading defense contractor, BAE Systems, ranks among the top global arms manufacturers, earning nearly $30 billion annually from the production of fighter jets, warships, and missile systems that find their way into war-torn regions. While London speaks of upholding peace and protecting civilians, its weapons often contribute directly to the destruction of those very lives.
China and Russia, positioned as counterweights to Western dominance, are no less invested in the economics of militarization. China, under the banner of “peaceful modernization,” has emerged as the third-largest weapons producer, with companies like AVIC, Norinco, and CETC collectively earning over $57 billion annually. It has developed cutting-edge systems, including the J-20 stealth fighter, hypersonic missiles, and naval destroyers, strengthening its position across the Asia-Pacific. At the same time, the United States’ creation of an expansive ring of missile defense systems stretching across the South China Sea, Japan, and the Asia-Pacific has created a dangerous tinderbox where even a minor miscalculation could ignite a devastating conflict. Russia, through its state-owned conglomerate Rostec, generates over $21 billion annually by producing S-400 missile defense systems, Su-35 fighter jets, attack helicopters, and artillery systems, supplying weapons not only for its own military operations but also to proxy nations aligned with Moscow’s interests. In Ukraine, Russian-made weapons and Western-supplied arms clash daily, turning the country into a laboratory of destruction where innocent civilians suffer the consequences of great-power rivalry.
Amid these competing superpowers, Israel presents yet another paradox. While accusing other nations, particularly Iran, of pursuing weapons of mass destruction, Israel itself is a major arms exporter and maintains one of the most advanced nuclear and missile capabilities in the world. Its defense firms collectively generate over $12 billion annually, developing cutting-edge drones, anti-missile systems, and precision-guided munitions. Many of these technologies are exported to regions already embroiled in conflict, while others are deployed directly in Gaza and the West Bank, where their usage has caused devastating civilian casualties. Israel’s defense industry has positioned the country as both a buyer and seller of destruction, all while claiming to act solely in the name of security and self-defense.
This is the grim irony of our time: the countries that boast of being peacemakers and champions of human rights are also the largest merchants of war. Their economies are heavily tied to weapons production, creating a vicious cycle where economic prosperity depends on sustaining conflict. A single corporation like Lockheed Martin earns more annually than the combined GDP of many low-income nations. Instead of directing resources toward alleviating poverty, combating climate change, and advancing healthcare and education, the global powers pour trillions into developing weapons capable of wiping out humanity.
The consequences of this relentless militarization are profound. As these powerful nations produce increasingly destructive weapons, they make the world less stable, less safe, and less humane. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Kashmir, and the South China Sea are not isolated tragedies—they are symptoms of a deeper sickness in a world where power, greed, and profit dictate global priorities. Civilians pay the ultimate price, as bombs flatten their homes, missiles kill their children, and entire generations grow up amid rubble and trauma. Every year, thousands of innocent men, women, and children are killed or maimed, not because they started wars, but because they are caught between powers competing for influence and dominance.
What makes this tragedy even more alarming is that the very powers manufacturing these weapons cannot escape the chaos they unleash. History has repeatedly shown that destruction spreads. A world destabilized by endless wars, fueled by weapons flowing across borders, eventually threatens the prosperity, security, and stability of the nations that created this vicious cycle. The illusion that they can remain islands of peace and prosperity while exporting destruction is fading. No society is immune to the blowback of perpetual conflict.
The rise of smaller players in the global arms trade further intensifies this dangerous dynamic. Countries like Turkey, once peripheral in weapons manufacturing, now have six firms ranked among the world’s top 100 arms producers, supplying drones, artillery, and combat vehicles used in conflicts stretching from Libya to the Caucasus. Israel, too, stands at the forefront of the military-industrial race, while increasingly volatile regions like the Middle East have become testing grounds for deadly technologies designed and exported by these so-called peacemakers.
The earth itself, a fragile blue dot in the vastness of the universe, sustains life only because of rare, delicate conditions that allow us to exist. Yet, in the race for military dominance and profit, humanity edges closer to undermining the very survival of this planet. Every year, advances in weapons technology push us further toward the precipice, while diplomacy and cooperation take a back seat to greed and power politics. If we continue down this path, the destruction these nations sow abroad will inevitably circle back, consuming the prosperity and security they seek to protect.
It does not have to be this way. The trillions spent on creating weapons of mass destruction could instead be invested in eliminating poverty, improving education, expanding healthcare, and combating climate change. Innovation and technology can uplift humanity rather than destroy it. But this requires leadership—true leadership—not the hypocrisy of nations that preach peace while building instruments of death. It requires recognizing that peace cannot be manufactured by fueling conflict, that real security lies not in amassing weapons, but in building trust, cooperation, and fairness among nations.
The nations that pride themselves on being the architects of a just and peaceful global order must confront the uncomfortable truth: as long as their economies depend on producing tools of destruction, genuine peace will remain out of reach. The business of war has made the world less safe, less fair, and less hopeful. And unless humanity takes a collective stand to break this cycle, we may find ourselves on a path from which there is no return.
This is the lesson history has taught us time and again, yet we forget it with dangerous consistency. If the powers that dominate today do not change course, they too will face the same destruction they unleash upon others. It is time to choose a different path—one that values life over profit, compassion over greed, and cooperation over conflict. The survival of humanity depends on our willingness to dismantle the engines of destruction we have built and embrace the possibility of creating a world where peace is more than a slogan; it is a reality.

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