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Replacing India with China in SAARC: A Strategic Masterstroke

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : For decades, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was envisioned as a platform for unity, prosperity, and regional integration among the diverse and populous nations of South Asia. With over two billion people and a wealth of natural and human resources, the SAARC region held tremendous promise. Yet despite this potential, SAARC has remained paralyzed—reduced to ceremonial meetings, unfulfilled resolutions, and a legacy of frustration. The principal reason for its failure has been the hegemonic posture and political intransigence of India, which consistently prioritized its own bilateral disputes over collective regional interests. Whenever India had tensions with Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka, it weaponized its influence within SAARC to paralyze the forum, suffocating any genuine attempt at regional cooperation.
Now, a new door has opened, and through it lies the opportunity for a historic transformation. Pakistan and China are reportedly working toward creating a new regional bloc that excludes India—the very actor that has repeatedly blocked progress—and instead includes willing and cooperative regional players.
The envisioned alliance includes Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and potentially Iran. By replacing India with China, this restructured bloc is poised to deliver what SAARC never could: unity, stability, and development rooted in mutual respect and economic advancement. It is a masterstroke in regional diplomacy, one that offers South Asia a second chance at integration—this time with an engine powerful enough to carry the weight of transformation.
China’s inclusion brings with it unmatched potential for infrastructure development, trade expansion, digital connectivity, and strategic outreach. Having already committed over $62 billion to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and more than $1 trillion across its global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s proven commitment to long-term infrastructure and investment is unparalleled. If this new bloc materializes, it could witness infrastructure investments exceeding $250 to $300 billion by 2035. These would span across rail and road networks connecting Gwadar to Kabul, Chabahar to Dhaka, and Kathmandu to Colombo. High-speed rail corridors, smart ports, integrated energy grids, and region-wide highway systems could form the physical backbone of this new South Asian alliance.
Trade, long crippled under SAARC due to political interference, has a chance to flourish. Intra-SAARC trade has languished at a pitiful 5% of total regional trade, while ASEAN boasts over 25% and the EU surpasses 60%. With India out and China in, intra-regional trade in South Asia could rise to 20% by 2030, translating into over $250 billion in trade volume, compared to $67 billion today. China’s economic ties with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal are already strong, and its access to Pakistan’s warm-water ports offers landlocked Central Asian and South Asian countries a direct outlet to global markets. The potential for growth in textiles, agri-processing, electronics, construction materials, and green technologies is immense, laying the foundation for self-sustaining regional value chains.
Foreign direct investment is also expected to surge. China, the world’s second-largest source of outbound FDI, invested over $136 billion globally in 2023. In the current SAARC bloc, most Chinese FDI is confined to Pakistan. But a restructured bloc with China at the center could see FDI flows jump from the current $10 billion to over $100 billion by 2035. These funds would likely target special economic zones, digital infrastructure, energy projects, manufacturing clusters, and agricultural modernization—unlocking employment and industrialization at a scale the region has never witnessed before.
The digital revolution would also accelerate. China’s Digital Silk Road offers undersea cables, fiber optics, cloud computing, AI platforms, and next-gen telecom. Expansion of this model to the region could deliver high-speed internet to over 400 million currently underserved users, transforming education, healthcare, banking, and governance. Regional cloud computing systems, digital currency interoperability, and fintech solutions would enable real-time trade, financial inclusion, and cyber-resilience. China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system could replace the region’s dependence on U.S. GPS, empowering the bloc with sovereign control over aviation, logistics, and defense mapping—an essential step in building technological independence.
Strategically, the inclusion of Afghanistan is a geopolitical pivot. Afghanistan connects the bloc to Central Asia and, through China and Pakistan, to Iran and the Middle East. With Iran’s Chabahar Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port acting as twin maritime gateways, and with China constructing transit and trade corridors through the region, this alliance becomes a global artery of commerce. Central Asian energy and minerals could flow southward to the Arabian Sea, while South Asian goods find shorter, cheaper routes to Europe and Africa. Transportation costs across the region could fall by 30–50%, according to the Asian Development Bank, directly improving the competitiveness of exports and reducing the price of imports.
The human impact is equally transformative. With China’s support, the region could lift over 300 million people out of poverty by 2040 through job creation, industrial expansion, and rural upliftment. Unemployment across Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan could decline by 15 to 20%, and access to clean water, electricity, healthcare, and digital literacy would expand exponentially. China’s model of non-interference—unlike Western or Indian models—ensures that sovereignty remains intact. Beijing does not fund regime change, nor does it meddle in domestic politics. It delivers roads, power plants, ports, and platforms—not political ultimatums. It respects its partners and uplifts their capacity.
India’s exclusion is not an act of retaliation but of necessity. Its leadership has repeatedly failed to grasp the essence of regional cooperation. New Delhi’s rigid nationalism, refusal to separate bilateral issues from multilateral platforms, and its track record of stalling progress made SAARC unworkable. Its foreign policy has alienated neighbors and irritated allies. Even its Western backers are increasingly wary of India’s refusal to align on key global issues, such as sanctions on Russia or trade cooperation. India sees itself as a regional giant, but in practice it has been a disruptive force in South Asian diplomacy.
This realignment offers South Asia a future where roads replace borders, where fiber optics replace fences, and where mutual progress replaces mutual suspicion. It envisions a regional community where ports connect producers to consumers, where satellites link students to teachers, and where dignity replaces desperation. The potential is no longer theoretical. It is tangible, measurable, and achievable—if the political will aligns with regional ambition.
South Asia has waited long enough. While other regions moved forward, we remained frozen in a structure designed to fail. But with China’s entry and India’s exclusion, we now have the opportunity to design a platform that works—for people, for peace, and for prosperity. It is not merely about replacing a nation with another. It is about replacing a mindset of dominance with one of partnership. It is about building a future that no longer depends on the whims of one capital but is driven by the shared dreams of a billion people.
If the vision is pursued with clarity and courage, this new South Asian bloc—backed by China’s resources and guided by mutual interest—will not only transform the region. It will set a global example of how fractured regions can reinvent themselves, not through confrontation, but through cooperation.

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CM Murad asks authorities to boost polio vaccination across Sindh

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KARACHI: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah on Wednesday reviewed the progress against poliovirus, noting that Sindh had reduced its polio burden from 23 cases in 2024 and nine in 2025 to just one case so far in 2026. However, environmental surveillance showed that the virus is still present in a few high-risk areas.

Chairing a meeting of the Provincial Task Force (PTF) on Polio Eradication, the CM reaffirmed the government’s commitment to eliminating the disease and directed authorities to intensify vaccination, surveillance and community engagement efforts ahead of the September 21-27 Sub-National Immunisation Days (SNIDs) campaign.

“The progress achieved by Sindh is encouraging and reflects the hard work of our health workers, district administrations and partner organisations, but our mission will only be completed when every child is protected, and the virus is eliminated from every district,” said Murad Ali Shah.

“No child should remain unvaccinated due to negligence, weak supervision or lack of follow-up.”

Reviews preparations for week-long campaign beginning on 21st

The meeting, held at CM House, was attended by Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho, chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah, Mayor of Karachi Murtaza Wahab, IG Police Sindh Javed Alam Odho, commissioner of Karachi Hassan Naqvi, provincial secretaries, provincial coordinator of Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) Shaharyar Gul, Sindh government partners, and deputy commissioners. From other districts, commissioners, DIGs, deputy commissioners and SSPs participated via video link.

Briefing the meeting, Health Minister Dr Azra Fazal Pechuho said Pakistan’s wild poliovirus (WPV1) cases have declined sharply from 74 in 2024 to 31 in 2025 and only three so far in 2026. Sindh has recorded a single case this year, reported from Sujawal on February 10, compared to nine cases last year and 23 in 2024.

In-charge of EOC Shaharyar Gul informed the chief minister that environmental surveillance data shows a significant reduction in virus circulation across the province. The number of positive environmental surveillance sites has fallen from a peak of 29 in March 2025 to only five in August 2026. Outside Karachi, all 14 surveillance sites are currently negative, while six of Karachi’s 15 sites remain positive, indicating that transmission is increasingly confined to limited pockets of the city.

The meeting participants were told that the absence of confirmed polio cases in Karachi during the 2025 high-transmission season, despite some positive environmental samples, reflects stronger population immunity achieved through routine immunisation and repeated vaccination campaigns.

Chief secretary Asif Hyder Shah said that sustained immunisation efforts have helped prevent clinical cases even where environmental surveillance continues to detect virus circulation.

Expressing satisfaction over the declining trend, the chief minister directed all commissioners, deputy commissioners and district health authorities to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards missed children, refusals and operational gaps.

Reviewing surveillance findings, he ordered intensified vaccination and monitoring efforts in Karachi and other identified high-risk areas, full implementation of the Karachi Action Plan 2.0, stronger coordination among district administrations and health authorities, closer monitoring of migrant and mobile populations and improved routine immunisation coverage in underserved communities.

EOC coordinator Shaharyar Gul reported that nearly three million oral polio vaccine (OPV) doses and 2.89 million booster doses were administered in Karachi, while campaigns in other divisions delivered approximately 2.7 million OPV doses and 2.58 million booster doses. Expanded-age vaccination strategies helped reach older children through schools and community-based interventions.

The chief minister appreciated the efforts of frontline workers, teachers, community mobilisers and health staff working in remote and hard-to-reach areas, describing them as the backbone of the eradication programme.

The task force was informed that after the July 2026 SNIDs campaign, a special 10-day follow-up drive was launched to vaccinate children who had initially been missed. Of 146,149 missed children, more than 23,500 were subsequently vaccinated through targeted efforts focused on refusals and unavailable children.

Mr Shah directed district administrations to further reduce refusal rates through stronger community engagement and public awareness campaigns, emphasising that building trust with parents remains critical to the success of the programme.

The meeting reviewed preparations for the September 21-27 SNIDs campaign, during which nearly 10 million children under five will be vaccinated across Sindh. The campaign will cover 23 full districts and selected union councils in seven partial districts, with more than 80,000 frontline workers participating.

Officials said over 26,000 police personnel have been assigned security duties. The chief minister reiterated the provincial government’s financial support for the campaign and noted that incentives for frontline workers had been increased by 28 per cent.

He directed all districts to complete remaining preparedness measures, including vaccine supply, logistics, workforce deployment and supervision arrangements, before the campaign begins.

The chief minister also reviewed campaign quality indicators and was informed that Sindh has continued to maintain strong performance standards while pursuing key reforms in routine immunisation, surveillance, staffing and community engagement.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Dealers await answers as fuel subsidy rollout begins

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• Petroleum dealers lament lack of clarity on payment mechanism, timeline
• PM wants facilitation desks to help people trying to buy subsidised fuel
• Ogra attributes hike to elevated crude prices despite decline in int’l rates

ISLAMABAD: Even as members of the public who have signed up for the PM’s Fuel Relief Scheme queued up at fuel pumps late on Wednesday night, petroleum dealers were still not clear about the mechanism whereby they would be compensated.

The concern was voiced by the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association (PPDA) during a presser in Karachi, where its chairman Malik Khuda Bakhsh said that no fuel pump could afford to bear a loss of Rs100 per litre without clarity on how they will be compensated.

He claimed that between the petroleum ministry, Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and even the finance ministry, no one had been able to answer their questions.

“Officials from Ogra and oil marketing companies say that the petroleum ministry will possibly pay the subsidy amount, whereas ministry officials maintain that payments will be made by the finance ministry, while finance ministry officials assure us that the State Bank will release the funds in a day or two,“ Mr Bakhsh added.

A day earlier, the National Steering Com­mittee on Fuel Subsidy — chaired by Deputy PM Ishaq Dar — had ordered that payments to fuel stations under the PM’s scheme be processed within 24 hours through the State Bank of Pakistan.

However, Mr Bakhsh said the federal government had assured dealers that they would be taken into confidence before the launch of the fuel relief package, but lamented that no such consultation took place.

”The government has to understand that if payments are not reimbursed in time, many dealers will stop participating in [the scheme], as many previous promises were also not fulfilled by the government,” he added.

PPDA Vice Chairman Tariq Hassan said that around 14,000 dealers across the country have been trying desperately to contact the government over the past three days, adding that whenever Islamabad wants to enforce something, it stops communication.

Another vice chairman, Anwar Kamal, said that if the scheme was to be successful, the government must negotiate with dealers, adding that dealers could not afford to have billions tied up for a long period under this scheme.

Mr Bakhsh later told Dawn they had been invited to a virtual meeting with the relevant federal secretary on Thursday morning.

He added that Ogra officials had also reached out to brief him, but he had asked for that information in writing, so he could relay that to the members of his association.

Facilitation desks

Earlier, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered authorities to set up facilitation desks comprising administration officials, volunteers and petrol pump staff to assist citizens in easily obtaining fuel subsidy under the special relief scheme, which was rolled out across the country at Wednesday midnight, following the launch of the pilot phase in Islamabad.

Presiding over a meeting to review progress on the scheme, PM Shehbaz directed that personnel deployed at the facilitation desks should guide eligible citizens and provide them with all possible assistance in registration and other necessary procedures.

The prime minister also asked the relevant authorities to remain proactive in creating public awareness about the scheme, which will benefit people from all four provinces, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

The meeting was informed that the scheme had been designed in a simple and easy-to-understand manner for the public. Only four pieces of information were required for registration: the applicant’s CNIC number, vehicle number plate, province of registration and vehicle registration date.

According to an official, the number of successful registrations was gradually rising, while provincial governments were extending “full cooperation” for nationwide implementation of the scheme.

Oil prices

Meanwhile, notifying fresh POL rates on Wednesday night, Ogra attributed the steep hikes to elevated international crude oil and petroleum product prices.

The price of high-speed diesel was increased by Rs5.62 per litre to Rs421.45, while petrol became costlier by Rs6.88 per litre, taking its new price to Rs391.22 per litre.

Brent crude futures fell $2.92, or 2.7 per cent, to settle at $105.83 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures fell $3.40, or 3.2pc, to close at $102.43, Reuters reported.

Saudi Arabia is offering more loadings of crude oil to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, people familiar with the matter said, blunting some of the hit to global supply from attacks on the country’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.

Oil prices had gained more than $3 in the previous session after shipping industry sources said crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub of Yanbu had been suspended and Riyadh had cancelled some cargo deliveries to European customers.

The suspension followed strikes on the East-West pipeline, which feeds the Saudi port of Yanbu. It became the main Saudi outlet for oil exports after Iran began blockading the Strait of Hormuz after US and Israeli attacks on the country.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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Islamabad, Beijing activate joint border commission

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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and China on Wednesday operationalised a long pending joint mechanism for managing their common border, with Islamabad des­cribing the move as a significant milestone in bilateral relations and a step toward closer coordination on border management, trade and cross-border connectivity.

“The inaugural meeting of the Commission was held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad,” the Foreign Office said in a statement.

The meeting was co-led by Li Ya, deputy director general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bilal Mahmood Chaudhary, director general for China at Pakistan’s Foreign Office.

The FO described the ope­r­ationalisation of the Pakis­tan-China Boundary Joint Com­m­ission as a “significant milestone for Pak­istan-China relations”, saying it would set “the stage for enh­anced cooperation in border management, joint border surveys, trade flows and people to people connectivity.”

The commission has its origins in the 2013 Agre­ement on the Boundary Mana­gement System signed during the visit of then Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Islamabad. Article 45 of the agreement provides for establishment of the joint commission to oversee implementation of the border management arrangements.

The mechanism would provide an institutional framework for dealing with practical issues along the border, including maintenance and inspection of the boundary, joint surveys, boundary marker issues, management of cross-border facilities and handling of incidents involving the border.

Its activation also gives the two countries a mechanism for regular coordination on a border that is important for movement between Pakistan and China, including thr­ough the Khunjerab crossing, and for trade and connectivity linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The new commission is distinct from the Joint Boundary Demarcation Commission that was established under the Sino-Pakistan Boundary Agreement of March 2, 1963. The earlier commission had a specific and essentially one time mandate to conduct surveys, establish boundary markers, prepare detailed maps and set out the alignment of the boundary.

Its work ended after the signing of the protocol and maps completing the demarcation process. The 1963 agreement was signed in Beijing by then-Pakistani foreign minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his Chinese counterpart Chen Yi.

It also provided that, following a settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India, the relevant sovereign authority would reopen negotiations with China on the boundary.

The 2013 agreement, by contrast, established a continuing system for managing the already demarcated boundary, including provisions for dealing with boundary markers and cross-border infrastructure. The agreement says that if a marker cannot be restored at its original location, the joint commission can determine another suitable location, provided the boundary line itself is not altered.

India, which disputes the validity of the 1963 agreement and regards the territory covered by it as part of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, rejected the new mechanism.

“We have seen reports in this regard. Our position on this matter is clear and consistent. There is no boundary between Pakistan and China. We reject the so-called Joint Commission, which is without any legal basis,” Ind­ian Foreign Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said.

For Pakistan and China, however, the commission provides a new institutional arrangement for managing their border relationship and dealing with practical issues that have emerged since the 2013 agreement, while leaving the broader territorial positions of the parties unchanged.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2026

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