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Replacing India with China in SAARC: A Strategic Masterstroke

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : For decades, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was envisioned as a platform for unity, prosperity, and regional integration among the diverse and populous nations of South Asia. With over two billion people and a wealth of natural and human resources, the SAARC region held tremendous promise. Yet despite this potential, SAARC has remained paralyzed—reduced to ceremonial meetings, unfulfilled resolutions, and a legacy of frustration. The principal reason for its failure has been the hegemonic posture and political intransigence of India, which consistently prioritized its own bilateral disputes over collective regional interests. Whenever India had tensions with Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka, it weaponized its influence within SAARC to paralyze the forum, suffocating any genuine attempt at regional cooperation.
Now, a new door has opened, and through it lies the opportunity for a historic transformation. Pakistan and China are reportedly working toward creating a new regional bloc that excludes India—the very actor that has repeatedly blocked progress—and instead includes willing and cooperative regional players.
The envisioned alliance includes Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and potentially Iran. By replacing India with China, this restructured bloc is poised to deliver what SAARC never could: unity, stability, and development rooted in mutual respect and economic advancement. It is a masterstroke in regional diplomacy, one that offers South Asia a second chance at integration—this time with an engine powerful enough to carry the weight of transformation.
China’s inclusion brings with it unmatched potential for infrastructure development, trade expansion, digital connectivity, and strategic outreach. Having already committed over $62 billion to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and more than $1 trillion across its global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s proven commitment to long-term infrastructure and investment is unparalleled. If this new bloc materializes, it could witness infrastructure investments exceeding $250 to $300 billion by 2035. These would span across rail and road networks connecting Gwadar to Kabul, Chabahar to Dhaka, and Kathmandu to Colombo. High-speed rail corridors, smart ports, integrated energy grids, and region-wide highway systems could form the physical backbone of this new South Asian alliance.
Trade, long crippled under SAARC due to political interference, has a chance to flourish. Intra-SAARC trade has languished at a pitiful 5% of total regional trade, while ASEAN boasts over 25% and the EU surpasses 60%. With India out and China in, intra-regional trade in South Asia could rise to 20% by 2030, translating into over $250 billion in trade volume, compared to $67 billion today. China’s economic ties with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal are already strong, and its access to Pakistan’s warm-water ports offers landlocked Central Asian and South Asian countries a direct outlet to global markets. The potential for growth in textiles, agri-processing, electronics, construction materials, and green technologies is immense, laying the foundation for self-sustaining regional value chains.
Foreign direct investment is also expected to surge. China, the world’s second-largest source of outbound FDI, invested over $136 billion globally in 2023. In the current SAARC bloc, most Chinese FDI is confined to Pakistan. But a restructured bloc with China at the center could see FDI flows jump from the current $10 billion to over $100 billion by 2035. These funds would likely target special economic zones, digital infrastructure, energy projects, manufacturing clusters, and agricultural modernization—unlocking employment and industrialization at a scale the region has never witnessed before.
The digital revolution would also accelerate. China’s Digital Silk Road offers undersea cables, fiber optics, cloud computing, AI platforms, and next-gen telecom. Expansion of this model to the region could deliver high-speed internet to over 400 million currently underserved users, transforming education, healthcare, banking, and governance. Regional cloud computing systems, digital currency interoperability, and fintech solutions would enable real-time trade, financial inclusion, and cyber-resilience. China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system could replace the region’s dependence on U.S. GPS, empowering the bloc with sovereign control over aviation, logistics, and defense mapping—an essential step in building technological independence.
Strategically, the inclusion of Afghanistan is a geopolitical pivot. Afghanistan connects the bloc to Central Asia and, through China and Pakistan, to Iran and the Middle East. With Iran’s Chabahar Port and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port acting as twin maritime gateways, and with China constructing transit and trade corridors through the region, this alliance becomes a global artery of commerce. Central Asian energy and minerals could flow southward to the Arabian Sea, while South Asian goods find shorter, cheaper routes to Europe and Africa. Transportation costs across the region could fall by 30–50%, according to the Asian Development Bank, directly improving the competitiveness of exports and reducing the price of imports.
The human impact is equally transformative. With China’s support, the region could lift over 300 million people out of poverty by 2040 through job creation, industrial expansion, and rural upliftment. Unemployment across Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan could decline by 15 to 20%, and access to clean water, electricity, healthcare, and digital literacy would expand exponentially. China’s model of non-interference—unlike Western or Indian models—ensures that sovereignty remains intact. Beijing does not fund regime change, nor does it meddle in domestic politics. It delivers roads, power plants, ports, and platforms—not political ultimatums. It respects its partners and uplifts their capacity.
India’s exclusion is not an act of retaliation but of necessity. Its leadership has repeatedly failed to grasp the essence of regional cooperation. New Delhi’s rigid nationalism, refusal to separate bilateral issues from multilateral platforms, and its track record of stalling progress made SAARC unworkable. Its foreign policy has alienated neighbors and irritated allies. Even its Western backers are increasingly wary of India’s refusal to align on key global issues, such as sanctions on Russia or trade cooperation. India sees itself as a regional giant, but in practice it has been a disruptive force in South Asian diplomacy.
This realignment offers South Asia a future where roads replace borders, where fiber optics replace fences, and where mutual progress replaces mutual suspicion. It envisions a regional community where ports connect producers to consumers, where satellites link students to teachers, and where dignity replaces desperation. The potential is no longer theoretical. It is tangible, measurable, and achievable—if the political will aligns with regional ambition.
South Asia has waited long enough. While other regions moved forward, we remained frozen in a structure designed to fail. But with China’s entry and India’s exclusion, we now have the opportunity to design a platform that works—for people, for peace, and for prosperity. It is not merely about replacing a nation with another. It is about replacing a mindset of dominance with one of partnership. It is about building a future that no longer depends on the whims of one capital but is driven by the shared dreams of a billion people.
If the vision is pursued with clarity and courage, this new South Asian bloc—backed by China’s resources and guided by mutual interest—will not only transform the region. It will set a global example of how fractured regions can reinvent themselves, not through confrontation, but through cooperation.

Pakistan News

CELEBRATES PAKISTAN’S 79TH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND 150TH BIRTH ANNIVERSARY OF QUAID-E-AZAM MOHAMMAD ALI JINNAH IN FRANCE

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Paris ( Imran Y. CHOUDHRY):- On the occasion of the 79th Independence Day of Pakistan, Ambassador Mumtaz Zahra Baloch hoisted national flag to the tune of the national anthem at the Embassy of Pakistan, Paris and welcomed distinguished members of the Pakistani community including large number of children.


Messages of the President, the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan were read out on the occasion.
Congratulating all on the Independence Day, the Ambassador said that 14th August was truly auspicious as it brought together the entire nation – in celebration, in paying homage to the Quaid-e-Azam and other leaders of the freedom movement, in remembrance of the supreme sacrifices of our forefathers and drawing inspiration from our glorious past and the tremendous achievements over the decades.


The Government of Pakistan is observing the current year – 2026 – as the “Year of Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah” to mark his 150th birth anniversary, she added. The great intellectual vision of Quaid requires the nation to uphold his principles and play its due role in the development and progress of Pakistan. The Ambassador highlighted that Quaid-e-Azam had given the nation three golden principles, faith, unity and discipline and adherence to these principles would lead the nation towards a bright future for the generations to come.
Ambassador Baloch said that as we celebrate our freedom we should remember our Kashmiri and Palestinian brothers and sisters, who have been struggling for over seven decades for their freedom and right to self-determination. She reaffirmed Pakistan’s political and diplomatic support to the people of the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) and Palestine for their legitimate rights.


Ambassador also appreciated the contributions of Pakistani diaspora in France in promoting Pakistan-France relations. She reiterated Embassy’s fully commitment to continue to facilitate Pakistanis based in France.
Later, the Ambassador inaugurated the ‘historic photo exhibition’ based on the life and works of Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah at the Embassy. The exhibition showcased a remarkable collection of
archival records and photographs chronicling the visionary leadership and enduring
legacy of the founder of Pakistan. The guests especially the children took a keen interest in the exhibition and raised slogans of Pakistan Zindabad.

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Pakistan PUBG MOBILE team ‘4Thrives’ visited the Embassy of Pakistan in Paris, France.

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Paris ( Imran Y. CHOUDHRY):- Ambassador Mumtaz Zahra Baloch today received the top professional Pakistan PUBG MOBILE team ‘4Thrives’, which is competing in the high-stakes competition, PUBG MOBILE World Cup 2026 Grand Finals at the Esports World Cup (EWC) being held in Paris.

The team members of ‘4Thrives’ briefed the Ambassador on the game and the hard work they all had put in to finish at the top of the qualifying round and reaching the Grand Finals. They were enthusiastic about their performance which has cemented their position among the world’s best PUBG MOBILE teams.

The Ambassador appreciated the team members for their enthusiastic participation and accomplishments and wished them success for the Grand Finals. She said the Pakistani nation has proudly witnessed the recent achievements of the 4Thrives team and expressed confidence that it would win the prestigious trophy in Paris as well.

This is the first time that EWC is being held in Paris – a true global phenomenon represented by more than 2,000 players from 200 clubs and 100 different countries.

Let’s celebrate and cheer Pakistan PUBG MOBILE team ‘4Thrives’ for the Grand Finals this week!

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The Mecca Defence Pact: The Threats Behind the Alliance

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan is being described as a Muslim version of NATO. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan himself said its collective-defence clause is technically similar to NATO’s Article 5: an armed attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all. Yet most commentary has concentrated on the pact’s wording, its possible expansion and whether it is aimed at Iran or Israel. The more important question has received less attention: what threat does each signatory actually perceive?
Without answering that question, analysis of the agreement remains incomplete. Alliances do not acquire meaning merely from ceremonial signatures. Their real character is determined by the dangers their members fear, the capabilities they contribute and the circumstances in which they are prepared to act.
For Saudi Arabia, the immediate security environment is deeply paradoxical. The kingdom has long relied upon the United States, but the presence of American forces and facilities across the Gulf can also attract retaliation whenever Washington uses regional territory or infrastructure in military operations against Iran.
Tehran has repeatedly maintained that its quarrel is not with Gulf societies as such, but with military threats launched from or supported through their territories. Whether one accepts Iran’s justification or not, the underlying dilemma is real: foreign protection can simultaneously become a source of exposure.
This raises a difficult question. If foreign bases had not facilitated attacks against Iran, would Tehran have attacked Gulf countries on the same scale? The answer cannot be proven, but the question exposes Saudi Arabia’s strategic vulnerability. Riyadh wants protection without remaining permanently hostage to decisions made by an external guarantor.
Threats from the Houthis in Yemen and Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq remain serious, particularly for oil facilities, desalination plants, shipping and civilian infrastructure. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia has spent heavily on modern aircraft, missiles, surveillance systems and air defence. These dangers alone do not fully explain the need for an Article 5-style pact with Türkiye and nuclear-armed Pakistan.
The wider concern is Israel’s expanding military reach and the fear that no regional state can assume it will remain permanently outside Israeli calculations. The “Greater Israel” project is not merely a slogan invented by Israel’s critics. It is a documented ideological and political current rooted in expansionist interpretations of biblical territory, including the most extreme vision of land stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates, and in revisionist Zionist ideas of sovereignty on both sides of the Jordan River.
Israel’s wars and military operations across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere have intensified regional fears that its use of force and territorial ambitions are becoming geographically unconstrained. Because the most expansive interpretation of Greater Israel encompasses territory belonging to several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has legitimate reasons to treat this ideology and Israel’s growing regional reach as a long-term strategic threat.
The Mecca agreement therefore creates strategic depth, reduces Saudi Arabia’s exclusive dependence on Washington and strengthens the kingdom’s leadership position in the Muslim world.
Türkiye enters the pact with a different threat map. It possesses NATO’s second-largest army, an increasingly sophisticated defence industry, formidable drone capabilities, warship and helicopter production, and substantial operational experience in Syria, Iraq and the eastern Mediterranean.
Kurdish militancy and instability along Türkiye’s southern borders remain persistent threats, but Ankara is largely capable of managing these challenges without Pakistani or Saudi military intervention.
The more consequential concern is Israel. Turkish and Israeli rhetoric has become increasingly hostile, while their strategic interests collide in Syria, Gaza and the broader eastern Mediterranean. Türkiye’s conventional size gives it considerable strength, but Israel is widely understood to possess nuclear weapons, while Türkiye does not. This creates a dangerous asymmetry at the highest level of escalation.
Pakistan’s participation therefore adds deterrent weight, but it is essential not to overstate what has formally been agreed. The published language does not establish an explicit Pakistani nuclear umbrella over Türkiye or Saudi Arabia. Nor does it automatically commit Islamabad to nuclear retaliation.
Its value at this stage lies in strategic ambiguity. Any adversary contemplating extreme escalation must now consider the possibility of a broader response involving a nuclear-armed partner. That uncertainty itself can reinforce deterrence, provided consultation mechanisms, command arrangements and red lines are eventually clarified.
Pakistan’s principal state-based threat remains India. Its other challenges—including attacks linked to the Pakistani Taliban, militancy operating from Afghan territory and insurgency in Balochistan—are grave but fall mainly within the domain of counterterrorism and internal security.
Islamabad has also alleged external support for certain militant networks, including from India and Israel other hostile actors, therefore the possibility of hybrid warfare designed to weaken Pakistan cannot be ignored.
The real test for the pact would come during a future India-Pakistan war. Saudi Arabia enjoys extensive economic and political relations with India, while Türkiye also has interests that extend beyond its partnership with Islamabad. Would Riyadh provide intelligence, logistics, financing, air defence or diplomatic support? Would it risk its relationship with New Delhi?
The treaty’s collective-defence formula is powerful, but it does not necessarily mean that every member must respond identically or automatically declare war. Even NATO’s Article 5 requires each ally to take such action as it considers necessary. The Mecca pact’s credibility will similarly depend on agreed procedures, operational planning, military integration and, above all, political will.
Nor should the alliance be framed as an anti-Iranian “Sunni bloc.” That description is analytically shallow and politically dangerous. It imports a sectarian narrative into an agreement whose signatories explicitly maintain that it is not directed against Iran or any other particular country.
Western and regional media extensively are using the Sunni label as convenient shorthand, but repeating it can deepen the very divisions that have repeatedly weakened the Muslim world. It risks presenting Sunni and Shia states as natural enemies, even though they share geography, economic interests, religious bonds and responsibility for regional stability.
Iran has demonstrated formidable missile, drone and asymmetric capabilities and has proven ability to impose severe costs on the combined military might of both the United States and Israel and their alliance in the Middle East and elsewhere in the entire world.
A confrontation between Iran and the combined forces of Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia would devastate the region, rupture trade and energy routes, inflame sectarian tensions and serve none of the four countries.
The rational objective of the Mecca alliance should therefore be deterrence, collective security and strategic autonomy—not the creation of another front in the Iran war.
The wiser long-term course is to keep the pact open and eventually build a structured security dialogue with Iran. Immediate Iranian membership may be politically unrealistic while war and mistrust persist, but inclusion should remain a strategic objective.
Egypt and other regional countries could also participate in a broader security architecture based on non-aggression, collective consultation, protected shipping lanes, economic connectivity and respect for sovereignty.
The three signatories must also wage an intelligent information campaign. Through official statements, diplomatic outreach, legacy media, social platforms and other forms of communication, they should consistently reject the description of the agreement as a “Sunni NATO.”
They should explain that the pact is intended to protect its members from aggression regardless of the aggressor’s religious, sectarian or national identity. It must not be allowed to become an instrument for turning Muslim countries against one another.
The Mecca agreement will become historic only if it does more than redistribute fear. Properly developed, it can reduce dependence on outside powers, deter Israeli or other aggression, give Pakistan additional diplomatic weight and create the nucleus of an inclusive regional security system.
Mishandled as a sectarian coalition, however, it could produce precisely the confrontation it claims to prevent. Its success will therefore be measured not by how many enemies it names, but by how many wars it prevents.

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