war
Climbing the Iran War Ladder
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The war now unfolding between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other did not begin merely as a confrontation over nuclear enrichment or missile development. Those issues were presented to the world as the immediate justification, but the deeper strategic objective has long been understood by many analysts: regime change in Tehran. The assumption guiding years of sanctions, covert operations, cyber warfare, and now open military confrontation was that if Iran’s leadership could be decapitated, its missile and drone infrastructure destroyed, its naval capabilities crippled, and its economy suffocated, the Iranian people would eventually rise against their own government and replace it with a system aligned with Western and Israeli interests.
This strategy reflects a strategic vision that Israeli leaders, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have advocated for decades. Netanyahu repeatedly warned that Iran represented the greatest existential threat to Israel and argued that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions must be stopped before they matured. Yet critics of this argument note an important historical reality: when the earliest calls for confronting Iran began more than four decades ago, Tehran possessed neither a meaningful missile arsenal nor sophisticated drone capabilities. Its nuclear program remained limited and subject to international monitoring through the International Atomic Energy Agency. From that perspective, many observers believe that the nuclear narrative became a strategic instrument used to justify a broader geopolitical goal—the weakening or transformation of Iran as an independent regional power.
The operational plan appeared straightforward. Remove key leaders, destroy strategic military facilities, and allow internal unrest to complete the process of political change. Early phases of the conflict seemed to follow that script. Massive air strikes targeted military installations, command centers, missile launch sites, and naval bases. Thousands of targets were struck in rapid succession, creating the impression that Iran’s military capabilities were collapsing and that the regime might soon lose control.
The United States soon escalated the campaign further. President Donald J. Trump announced that American forces had carried out one of the most powerful bombing raids of the war on Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s most critical oil export terminal. The president stated that U.S. aircraft had destroyed every military target on the island while deliberately avoiding the destruction of the oil infrastructure itself. Kharg Island is the lifeline of Iran’s petroleum exports, handling roughly ninety percent of the country’s crude shipments. Trump warned, however, that if Iran interfered with maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States could reconsider its restraint.
Yet the expected political collapse inside Iran has not materialized. Instead, the external attacks appear to have triggered a powerful instinct for national cohesion. Iranian society, shaped by centuries of resistance to foreign intervention, has not rallied behind calls for externally driven regime change. The assumption that military pressure would spark a popular uprising has proven to be one of the central miscalculations of the conflict.
At the same time, Iran has responded by widening the battlefield beyond its own territory. Rather than fighting only within its borders, Tehran has attempted to redistribute the economic burden of the war across the entire Middle East and ultimately the global economy. Missile and drone attacks, threats against regional energy infrastructure, and disruptions to maritime routes have created an atmosphere of strategic uncertainty that extends far beyond Iran itself.
The global energy system lies at the center of this confrontation. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical maritime corridors in the world. Military planners have increasingly warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force would be far more complicated than it appears in theory. Even if the navies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France attempted to escort commercial tankers through the strait, analysts believe it would be extremely difficult to guarantee safe passage without Iran’s consent. For this reason, many defense experts argue that reopening the corridor through purely military means would be risky and uncertain, and that stable navigation would likely require some form of diplomatic understanding with Iran.
The war has also exposed the vulnerability of even highly advanced military powers. Israel possesses one of the world’s most sophisticated intelligence networks and defense systems. Yet sustained missile and drone exchanges demonstrate that modern warfare imposes heavy economic and psychological costs on any society. Repeated missile alerts, damage to infrastructure, and disruptions to daily life illustrate the limitations of technological superiority when conflicts become prolonged.
Another important dimension of the conflict is the growing unease among Gulf Arab states hosting American military bases. Countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait have long relied on the U.S. security umbrella as a deterrent against regional instability. However, these bases now risk becoming direct targets in a wider confrontation. What was once viewed as protection increasingly appears to some regional leaders as a potential magnet for retaliation.
A notable geopolitical alignment has also emerged between Israel and India. Over the past two decades, India has become one of Israel’s closest defense partners, cooperating extensively in drone development, missile defense systems, surveillance technologies, and intelligence sharing. This partnership is not merely technological but also reflects a similar strategic worldview. Israel’s doctrine seeks to maintain overwhelming regional superiority so that no neighboring state can challenge its security. India’s concept of “Akhand Bharat,” or Greater India, imagines a restoration of influence across the broader South Asian subcontinent. While framed primarily in cultural terms, it reflects a desire to neutralize regional rivals and consolidate influence across neighboring territories. This parallel strategic outlook helps explain India’s diplomatic support for Israel during the current conflict.
Perhaps the most revealing aspect of the war is how dramatically the perception of victory has shifted since the first days of fighting. When hostilities began on February 28, many analysts predicted a rapid victory for the United States and Israel. Early strategic assessments informally estimated that Washington had roughly a 50–55 percent probability of determining the outcome, Israel around 30–35 percent, and Iran barely 10–15 percent. The reasoning was simple: overwhelming airpower, technological superiority, and intelligence dominance would quickly dismantle Iran’s military capacity.
After the war has entered into its third week, many strategic observers now estimate that the United States retains roughly 40–45 percent influence over the ultimate outcome, Israel about 25–30 percent, while Iran’s strategic position has risen to roughly 25–30 percent due to its ability to internationalize the consequences of the conflict. In essence, the war has evolved into two parallel contests: a tactical war dominated by American and Israeli military power, and a strategic war in which Iran attempts to raise the economic and geopolitical cost for its adversaries and the global system.
One of the greatest casualties of the conflict is the credibility of the international rules-based order as a result of a gradual shift toward a world governed less by international law and more by raw geopolitical power. Smaller states increasingly fear that they may become targets if they lack strong alliances or military capabilities. Arms races accelerate, mistrust deepens, and regional conflicts risk cascading into broader confrontations.
The Iran war therefore represents more than a regional crisis. It is a defining moment for the emerging global order. Whether diplomacy eventually prevails or escalation continues will shape not only the future of the Middle East but also the credibility of the institutions designed to preserve international stability.
For now, the battlefield remains active, the diplomatic channels remain fragile, and the outcome remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the war has already reshaped the geopolitical landscape—revealing the limits of military power, the resilience of national identity, and the profound risks of a world drifting away from international cooperation toward the harsher logic of power politics.
war
The Human Cost of Economically Outcasting Iran
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : We are squeezing the Iranians like they have never seen,” United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared while the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly was under way in New York. Claiming that 80 to 90 percent of Iran’s external flights had been shut down, he said he was unsure how the Iranian representatives attending the United Nations would get home.
His remarks came one day after President Donald Trump used the General Assembly podium to threaten that he could “annihilate the Islamic Republic” if no agreement were reached, while calling upon other nations to join the United States in economically isolating Iran.
while calling upon other nations to join the United States in economically isolating Iran. Placed alongside Operation Economic Outcast—the whole-of-government campaign announced by the Treasury Department on August 24, 2026—these declarations reveal the intended scale of the pressure: not merely sanctions against selected officials, but the economic, financial and physical isolation of a country whose ordinary people will inevitably bear the consequences.
These measures raise an unavoidable question: can an economy be isolated so extensively without placing the principal burden upon people who do not control the government, the IRGC or military decisions?
An economy cannot be neatly divided between a government and its population. When oil revenue contracts, currency depreciates and banks lose access to international settlement, the effects travel through wages, savings, pensions, prices and employment.
Restrictions on shipping and aviation affect commercial supply chains as well as government movement. Even when food and medicine are formally exempt, banks, insurers and transport companies may avoid lawful transactions because they fear penalties. The United Nations human-rights system has examined the resulting effects on access to medicines and the right to health in Iran.
Behind every economic indicator is a household. Iran has roughly ninety million inhabitants: children requiring milk and medicine, patients dependent on imported treatments, workers needing functioning businesses, and parents responsible for food, rent and education. They do not decide upon missile launches, direct military operations or determine which regional organization receives Iranian assistance. They cannot morally be treated as responsible merely because they live under a government accused of objectionable conduct.
This distinction is central to the principle against collective punishment. Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention prohibits collective penalties against protected civilians for acts they did not personally commit. Its underlying principle—individual responsibility rather than punishment by identity—illuminates the humanitarian problem created when economic pain is deliberately spread across an entire society.
International humanitarian law also prohibits using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare. The legal threshold is not established merely because sanctions produce hardship; the conflict context, conduct and intent must be proved.
But the rule makes one point unmistakable: food, water, medicine and objects indispensable to civilian survival cannot legitimately become weapons against a population. Where sanctions, blockades or financial restrictions obstruct those essentials, humanitarian exemptions must work in practice, not merely appear in official documents.
The contradiction becomes sharper because American officials have repeatedly distinguished the Iranian people from their government and portrayed U.S. policy as supporting their freedom. Yet a policy intended to produce a subsistence economy inevitably reaches far beyond officials and commanders. Powerful institutions possess privileged access to hard currency, protected supply networks and state resources. Low-income families, small businesses, pensioners and patients have no comparable protection.
For ordinary Iranians, Washington’s declaration that their country must become an “economic outcast” is not an abstract foreign-policy slogan—it is a sentence imposed upon everyday life. Economic warfare, sanctions and the naval blockade are crushing the value of wages and savings, driving inflation above 80 percent, producing shortages of gasoline and electricity, and pushing the rial to historic depths.
Families are abandoning meat and fruit, watching the price of traditional bread multiply, selling possessions to meet household expenses and giving up the ability to plan even the most modest future.
The cruel reality is that an economic campaign publicly presented as pressure upon Tehran’s leadership is reaching most deeply into the kitchens, medicine cabinets and empty pockets of people who neither formulate state policy nor command its military forces.
Declaring Iran an economic outcast therefore means casting millions of innocent human beings outside the protections of normal economic life—depriving parents of security, children of nutrition, patients of treatment and an entire generation of hope—in order to extract political concessions from a government far better equipped than its population to survive the punishment.
The United Nations General Assembly is presently giving deserved attention to civilian suffering in Gaza and to developments in the occupied West Bank. The same universal principles require close examination of harm to Iranian civilians. Human rights cannot depend upon the nationality of the victim or the geopolitical alignment of the government under which that person lives. Concern for a hungry child in Gaza is not diminished by concern for a child in Iran whose family cannot obtain food or medicine. Consistency strengthens humanitarian law; selective concern weakens it.
International organizations should document prices, nutrition, medicine availability, household income and access to transport. Such safeguards would not settle the political disputes, but they could prevent civilians from becoming instruments through which pressure is applied to their government.
The Iranian people have no control over the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. They did not decide to impose sanctions, launch military operations or close the avenues of diplomacy.
Yet they are the people most exposed to collapsing purchasing power, unemployment, shortages of medicine, restricted travel and the daily struggle to place food on the table. They deserve the same concern extended to every population subjected to oppression, collective hardship or economic strangulation. Human dignity cannot be protected selectively, according to nationality, political convenience or strategic alliance.
The suffering of Iranian civilians must therefore become a sustained subject of discussion within the United Nations, international humanitarian organizations, human-rights institutions, academic forums, civil-society platforms and the global media.
Their hardship must be documented, debated and placed before the conscience of the world. International institutions should develop practical measures to protect access to food, medicine, remittances, transportation and other necessities of life, while pressing for diplomacy capable of ending the confrontation. Silence would leave millions of innocent people trapped between a powerful external campaign and a government whose decisions they do not control.
The international community has a legal, humanitarian and moral obligation to speak for them, to examine the consequences of the measures being imposed and to seek remedies that mitigate their suffering.
Iranian civilians are not instruments of war, bargaining chips or economic leverage. They are human beings, and their pain deserves the same recognition, urgency and protection demanded for suffering populations everywhere.
war
US Congress Impeaches Hegseth over Illegal War with Iran
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The effort to impeach Secretary of Defense Peter Brian Hegseth places a fundamental question before the United States Congress: will constitutional limits govern the executive’s use of military force, or will presidential command become its own justification for war? Whether this effort succeeds or fails, its significance extends beyond one official’s future. It demands accountability for initiating and continuing hostilities against Iran and challenges the displacement of congressional authority by executive decisions carrying profound human, military, and economic consequences.
Representative Thomas Massie’s September 15 impeachment initiative presents a specific charge against Hegseth: that he knowingly implemented unlawful orders to wage war. The accusation concerns both the decision to introduce American forces into hostilities on February 28, 2026, and their continued employment afterward. Its central contention is that the administration acted without congressional authorization or an independent constitutional basis for immediate defensive action. This is the foundation of the impeachment effort, and it deserves to be stated fully and directly.
The resolution identifies three circumstances that were absent when Hegseth directed American forces into hostilities against Iran: Congress had not declared war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, congress had not enacted any specific statutory authorization for introducing United States armed forces into hostilities against Iran and no national emergency had been created by an Iranian attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces.
These points form the factual basis of the allegation that the operation did not satisfy the circumstances identified in Section 2(c) of the War Powers Resolution. The charge goes further. It states that no imminent attack upon the United States, its territories, possessions, or armed forces existed.
In support, it invokes the March 17 resignation letter of Joe Kent, then director of the National Counterterrorism Center: “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation.” Massie’s case therefore challenges both the absence of congressional authorization and the claim that immediate defensive necessity supplied an alternative basis for commencing hostilities.
From those premises, the resolution draws an unequivocal legal conclusion: the introduction of American forces was unlawful from its inception, and subsequent military actions continued that unlawful undertaking.
It alleges that Hegseth nevertheless knowingly employed the powers, personnel, weapons, and resources of the Department of Defense to execute the order. The accusation is therefore one of personal responsibility in implementing allegedly unlawful military action. It does not treat his subordinate position within the administration as sufficient to discharge his obligations.
Two forms of alleged abuse follow. First, Hegseth executed an unlawful order to commence hostilities despite the absence of the specified authorization or emergency. Second, he continued employing departmental personnel and resources after that initiation, without any subsequent declaration of war or specific statutory authorization.
The resolution characterizes this conduct as substituting unlawful executive action for Congress’s constitutional and statutory judgment. It seeks impeachment, Senate trial, removal, and disqualification from federal office on the grounds that his conduct was incompatible with his duties and the rule of law.
The charges against Hegseth are clear and understandable. The absence of an existential threat to the United States from Iran has been discussed repeatedly in my own articles and by journalists, analysts, Democrats, and other public representatives. Iran’s strategic calculations did not suggest a willingness to invite overwhelming destruction by launching an attack on American soil. The justification for initiating this war therefore demands the closest scrutiny.
The narrative recalls the manufactured justifications advanced for earlier interventions in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. In Iran’s case, the grounds offered for war appear especially flimsy. Repetition does not make an allegation convincing, and the assertion of danger cannot substitute for a credible explanation of why war was necessary.
Hegseth is not the final decision-making authority. He acts under the direction and command of President Trump, the commander in chief. The accusations against the secretary therefore also raise questions about the president who authorized the policy. This effort may be a preview of a larger confrontation. If it succeeds, the president’s own vulnerability will become more apparent.
The war has also been brutal in its language. Hegseth’s derogatory remarks about Iran and its leadership fall below the dignity expected of his office. Similar language from the president compounds that failure. The United States has long associated its standing with human rights, civility, and respect for human dignity and honor. Those ideals are undermined when its leaders speak contemptuously of another country and its people.
Iran has now become central to the impeachment effort against Hegseth. Whether he survives politically or is removed, the charges threaten his standing. An official subjected to such scrutiny can suffer lasting damage among the public, international counterparts, colleagues, subordinates, and supporters. The same exposure may ultimately confront the president.
Here lies an essential strength of the American constitutional system: the executive can be called to account when it exceeds its lawful authority. Congress’s role in decisions concerning war cannot be displaced simply because the president commands the armed forces. Constitutional responsibility must remain meaningful when its exercise becomes politically difficult.
The administration’s declaration that the war had ended makes its subsequent conduct particularly troubling. The president and Hegseth communicated that position to Congress, yet military operations continued. Their own description of the situation did not bring the fighting to an end. More lives were lost, while expensive ammunition, missiles, and military systems continued to be consumed or destroyed without delivering the promised objectives.
The impeachment effort therefore comes at an important moment. It may provide the jolt necessary to confront the administration with the consequences of its decisions. Leaders who have become absorbed in their own assertions of power must recognize the reality on the ground. Iran cannot simply be defeated according to Washington’s preferred timetable or compelled to accept whatever outcome the administration demands.
The responsible course is to return to the pre-war position and address the destruction caused by the United States and Israel, including compensation for Iran. Continuing a destructive policy to avoid acknowledging failure only deepens the damage.
Such a change would not diminish the United States or erase its standing as a superpower. It would reaffirm the capacity to recognize mistakes, correct policy, and restore constitutional discipline. National strength includes the ability to reconsider a course that has failed and to measure conduct against principles more enduring than any administration.
Whether the impeachment effort succeeds or fails, its central challenge remains: American power must answer to the Constitution. The country’s credibility ultimately depends on its willingness to correct its course and uphold the cherished values of human dignity, human honor, and civility.
Any honest assessment must also preserve historical sequence and equal standards. Retaliation cannot be understood fully when the preceding action is omitted. American and Israeli operations require scrutiny alongside Iranian responses, including their purposes, scale, and consequences.
Proportionality demands attention to specific conduct and civilian harm. Iranian lives possess the same human worth as American lives. Military superiority cannot confer an unrestricted entitlement to inflict destruction, and national allegiance should not determine whose suffering deserves recognition or whose actions require justification.
Human dignity, human honor, and civility belong within this debate. Officials can oppose a government without humiliating its population or speaking casually about suffering. The credibility of the United States depends partly on whether its leaders uphold the values they invoke.
Whether Hegseth’s impeachment effort succeeds or fails, it presses an essential demand upon the American government—that executive power answer to law, military decisions withstand scrutiny, and leadership remain grounded in the cherished values of human dignity, human honor, and civility.
war
Denmark says Russian warship fired flares at military helicopter
Denmark has accused a Russian warship of firing two emergency flares at one of its helicopters while it was tracking the vessel in the Baltic Sea.
The Danish government has summoned the Russian ambassador over the incident, which it said happened during a “routine” monitoring operation on Monday.
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen branded the Russian action “reckless” and said it was designed to “intimidate and divide”.
Russia said it would “thoroughly investigate” the incident but accused Danish helicopters of making “dangerous manoeuvres” near Russian warships.
It came on the same day that Nato forces shot down a drone over Lithuania in the latest security scare on the alliance’s eastern flank, where tensions remain high amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In a statement detailing the incident in the Baltic Sea, the Danish armed forces said: “One of the air force’s Fennec helicopters was today fired at with flares during a routine photographic operation of a Russian frigate, which was located in international waters off Gedser.”
Of the two flares fired at the helicopter, one passed close to it, the statement added.
The Danish foreign ministry described the incident as “completely unacceptable”.
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen accused Russia of “gradually shifting the boundary for what they consider acceptable behaviour”, adding: “That is something we cannot accept.”
In a statement, Russian ambassador Vladimir Barbin said Moscow would “thoroughly investigate all the circumstances of the incident” but accused the Danish helicopter of carrying out “provocative actions”.
Barbin said this was “not the first time that Danish Air Force helicopters have carried out dangerous manoeuvres near Russian warships”.
He said he had complained about a similar incident last year, adding that the latest event showed that “communication problems lie not with the Russian Navy’s vessels, but with the Danish side”.
Russia’s behaviour was “reckless and dangerous,” the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on social media.
This incident – together with the drone over Lithuania – was “part of a broader pattern of Russian aggression and provocation against Europe”, she added.
Danish Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus told Reuters no attempt to make contact with helicopters had been made by the frigate’s crew.

Overnight, Nato fighter pilots shot down a drone that entered Lithuania’s airspace.
Authorities said the drone likely entered southern Lithuania, near the second-largest city of Kaunas, from neighbouring Belarus shortly after midnight on Tuesday.
The origins of the drone have yet to be determined, the Lithuanian national crisis management centre said, but the country’s president pointed to increased Russian aggression in recent months.
President Gitanas Nausėda wrote on X: “With Russia intensifying its aggression against Ukraine, such readiness is vital for our region. Together with our Nato Allies, Lithuania will defend its airspace.”
Lithuania shares a large part of its southern and eastern border with Belarus, a key Russian ally.
Poland also announced there had been “aviation operations” in its airspace on Monday night “due to the activity of Russian Federation’s jet-powered unmanned aerial vehicles conducting strikes on Ukrainian territory”.
It said the overnight operations were of a “preventive nature” and aimed at “securing airspace and its protection, especially in areas adjacent to threatened regions”.
Nato jets have been scrambled several times to shoot down stray Ukrainian drones that have crossed into Baltic countries Estonia and Latvia this year.
Taken From BBC News
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