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Peace with dignity

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AS escalation appeared on the cards with tit-for-tat missile and air attacks continuing between India and Pakistan, US President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social media platform that a US-mediated “full and immediate” ceasefire had been agreed between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours.

In the hours, even minutes before the Trump announcement, fears were mounting of a major escalation with India’s missile attacks against non-military targets followed by strikes against military bases in Pakistan and the latter’s retaliatory action targeting Indian military assets.

At that point, when the situation seemed poised on a knife-edge, the only certainty was that India’s attempt to set a new normal in carrying out attacks deep inside Pakistan after blaming the latter for its own security and intelligence and policy failu­res in held Kashmir had backfired spectacularly.

Whether among the five downed Indian warplanes, during the aerial fight with BVR (beyond visual range) weapons, after the first set of missile attacks on Pakistan earlier this week, were two French-made Rafale jets or three is immaterial.

As South Asia heaved a sigh of relief that a nuclear exchange had been averted, what next was the question on many minds.

What counts is that purchased at way over $250 million apiece, the state-of-the-art warplane, the perceived force multiplier, failed to project power as it was meant to and was effectively neutralised by weapons systems used by the Pakistan Air For­ce with stunning skill. The PAF’s most expensive J-10C fighter costs a fifth of the Rafale’s price tag.

PAF’s multiple kills seemed to have taken defence and modern aerial warfare experts by surprise. A cursory glance at the world media in general, and defence-related publications/ sites in particular, shows the fascination with how the Chinese-provided assets were used to lethal effect by the PAF.

It was this embarrassment that perhaps made immediate de-escalation difficult as India continued to talk of de-escalation while targeting Pakistani bases in the small hours of Saturday, provoking retaliation from Pakistan, which claimed huge successes in its missile/ air campaign including hitting the formidable Russian-made S-400 air defence missile site on an Indian Air Force base.

https://www.dawn.com/news/card/1909714

At a media briefing in New Delhi, the Indian military spokeswomen conceded ‘limited damage’ at three of their bases, while again reiterating they wanted to ‘de-escalate’. More or less as this briefing was happening another high-explosive drone strike on a PAF base in Sindh, near Hyderabad, was confirmed. Casualties, including fatalities, were feared.

This prompted concerns that Pakistan would also be compelled to retaliate in a spiralling confrontation. In such a rapidly escalating military conflict, miscalculations can happen, leading to untold repercussions, given the two nations are said to together possess some 300 tactical and strategic nuclear warheads and also tested, diverse delivery systems.

As South Asia and possibly the wider world heaved a sigh of relief that a possible, even if improbable, nuclear exchange had been averted, what next was the question on many minds. Would it be back to the future, a repeat of the past so many decades when a terrorist incident in India blamed on Pakistan would lead to fears of war with troops locked in eyeball to eyeball stand-offs as they have many times, before de-escalation?

Many Pakistanis and, I am sure, Indians, may have become accustomed to such recurrences every few years. But after the last round of tension triggered by the Pulwama attack in Indian-held Kashmir that left dozens of paramilitary soldiers dead in 2019 was the first instance of a ‘retaliatory’ strike on Pakistan soil and the downing of an IAF fighter and the capture of their pilot, as the PAF responded.

But attacking a forested area in Balakot, adjacent to Azad Kashmir where hostilities routinely erupt, and claiming a win was one thing, launching missile attacks on civilian targets deep inside Pakistan this week after last month’s Pahalgam terror attack was a different matter.

Pakistan, it turned out, was determined to robustly resist this attempt by India to set a new normal. The embarrassment of losing state-of-the-art aerial assets drove India to launch missile attacks on PAF bases. And the Pakistanis who appeared prepared and determined to hit back, did so, as per their claims, with telling effect and forced India to agree to a ceasefire.

Now many readers in India would consider the use of the word ‘forced’ unacceptable, given what they have been hearing in their government-controlled and dominated media and sanitised social media environment but they would do well to reflect what their government stance on talking to Pakistan has been.

After President Trump announced the ceasefire and congratulated both countries on displaying “common sense and great intelligence”, the more revealing and tell-tale tweet came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio who said Vice President J. D. Vance and he had engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials including the two prime ministers, the Indian foreign minister, the two national security advisers and the Pakistan army chief.

He commended the two prime ministers on their “wisdom, prudence and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace”. But the most significant part of his statement was that both the countries had agreed to “start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site”.

The timing or the place of these talks was not immediately known but whether these happen in Abu Dhabi, as was being speculated, or elsewhere, it wasn’t without significance that India shifted from its position of no talks with Pakistan “until the latter ends its support to terrorism”.

Like it usually happens between India and Pakistan, both will claim this as a win but it is clear that only one side moved from its stance on talks as Islamabad has repeatedly called on New Delhi to come to the negotiating table.

If a dialogue were to materialise indeed and India does not backtrack, then the real winners will be the people of the subcontinent, several hundred million of whom try and survive below the poverty line. A terrible war has hopefully been averted and perhaps the newly established balance of conventional power below the nuclear threshold will prevent future conflicts.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.

[email protected]

Published in Dawn, May 11th, 2025

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Berlin event highlights Pakistan’s strategic restraint and national unity

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BERLIN, Germany — The Embassy of Pakistan in Berlin marked the first anniversary of Maarka‑e‑Haq (The Battle of Truth) with a solemn ceremony that highlighted Pakistan’s national unity, strategic restraint, and commitment to regional peace.

Addressing the gathering, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Germany, H.E. Saqlain Syeda , described Pakistan’s conduct during Operation Bunyan‑un‑Marsoos as an example of responsible and principled statecraft. She noted that Pakistan’s response to Indian aggression was “measured, lawful, and firmly rooted in international norms,” adding that the country’s political and military leadership demonstrated exceptional coordination at a critical moment.

Ambassador Ms.Syeda praised the “unshakeable resolve” of Pakistan’s Armed Forces, commending their readiness to safeguard the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. She also underscored the importance of public support, which she said played a vital role in strengthening the country’s unified stance during the crisis.

Prominent German‑Pakistani businessman Manzoor Awan emphasized the urgent need for unity and national cohesion in Pakistan, stating that collective strength remains the country’s greatest asset in times of challenge.

Speaking at the event, Awan noted that Pakistanis have historically stood together as a united nation. He stressed that strong coordination between the public and the government is essential for confronting external threats, adding that “with unity, not only India but any major adversary can be faced with confidence.”

Awan reaffirmed the unwavering support of the Pakistani people for the Pakistan Army, saying that whenever the nation encounters danger, the public and the armed forces respond together with courage and determination.

Members of the Pakistani diaspora in Germany also spoke at the event, expressing solidarity and national pride. They voiced appreciation for Pakistan’s civil and military leadership and emphasized that diplomacy, unity, and strategic patience remain essential for maintaining regional stability.

Participants reaffirmed their confidence in Pakistan’s leadership and reiterated their commitment to contributing to the country’s progress, prosperity, and global standing.

The ceremony concluded with the screening of a documentary on Operation Bunyan‑un‑Marsoos, offering attendees a detailed account of the events and the national response it inspired.

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Yet Again, Pakistan Averted a Global Meltdown

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The temporary suspension of “Project Freedom” by President Donald Trump on May 5–6, 2026, may ultimately be remembered not merely as a tactical military pause, but as an admission that diplomacy had succeeded where overwhelming force had failed. After months of escalating confrontation in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the sudden halt of the U.S.-led naval escort operation reflected a changing geopolitical reality: the battlefield had reached its limits, the global economy was bleeding, and quiet diplomacy—much of it facilitated through Pakistan—had become the only viable path forward.
Within hours of the announcement, Brent crude fell sharply to nearly $108 a barrel while U.S. crude dropped toward $100. Global stock markets surged in relief. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, Asian markets rallied, and the immediate fear of catastrophic maritime losses eased. The world economy, which had been standing at the edge of another massive inflationary shock, suddenly regained a measure of stability.
According to the emerging narrative from regional diplomacy, Pakistan worked continuously behind the scenes to maintain communication channels between Washington and Tehran after the fragile ceasefire that began on April 7, 2026. Islamabad reportedly urged restraint on all sides and advocated a formula that combined de-escalation in Hormuz with renewed negotiations on sanctions, maritime access, and regional security guarantees.
Whether acknowledged publicly or not, Pakistan’s role appears to have been crucial in preventing the conflict from crossing the point of no return. The irony of the entire episode is impossible to ignore. The war itself began with immense confidence from the United States and Israel. “Epic Fury,” the military campaign launched with promises of crushing Iran’s strategic capabilities, was presented as a short and decisive operation that would allegedly force Tehran into submission within weeks. Regime change, rollback of nuclear ambitions, destruction of military infrastructure, and strategic surrender were all openly discussed as attainable goals.
None of those objectives materialized. Instead, Iran absorbed the pressure, maintained internal cohesion, preserved much of its command structure, and demonstrated a capacity for resilience that surprised even many seasoned observers. What was expected to become a demonstration of overwhelming Western military supremacy gradually evolved into a prolonged strategic stalemate.
The same pattern repeated itself with “Project Freedom.” The initiative was introduced with great fanfare as a bold U.S.-led naval effort to escort commercial vessels safely through Hormuz and break Iran’s effective control over maritime movement. Yet the operation quickly encountered practical realities. Shipping companies hesitated. Insurance providers warned of extreme wartime risk exposure. Several commercial vessels reportedly complied with Iranian maritime instructions rather than rely entirely on foreign military escorts. What was intended to project dominance instead exposed the limitations of power in a multipolar world. Ultimately, Project Freedom itself was paused without fully achieving its declared objectives.
That decision alone speaks volumes. For decades, Washington operated under the assumption that military superiority automatically translated into geopolitical compliance. The Iran conflict has challenged that assumption. A country under sanctions, facing combined pressure from the United States and Israel, managed not only to survive but to negotiate from a position far stronger than many anticipated.
Now the balance of leverage has visibly shifted. Even President Trump’s own remarks about energy exports inadvertently revealed another dimension of the conflict. During recent comments about upcoming discussions with Xi Jinping, Trump openly spoke about encouraging China and Asian economies to purchase greater quantities of American oil and gas from Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana. He described satellite images showing lines of ships moving toward American energy terminals like “highways at sea.”
Reading between the lines, many analysts see a broader economic motive behind the prolonged instability in Hormuz. As Middle Eastern exports became constrained by war, insecurity, and naval restrictions, U.S. energy producers gained unprecedented opportunities to capture global market share. Asian consumers who traditionally relied heavily on Gulf oil increasingly turned toward American supplies.
In effect, the disruption of Gulf energy routes redirected enormous revenue streams toward the United States. Meanwhile, Gulf economies paid a heavy price. Infrastructure damage, declining investor confidence, soaring insurance premiums, interrupted exports, and prolonged regional insecurity weakened economies that had once depended on stable maritime commerce. Even when some production capacity remained intact, the uncertainty surrounding Hormuz severely constrained the movement of energy resources.
Yet another remarkable transformation emerged during this crisis: Washington’s rediscovery of international institutions. Only months earlier, senior American officials had openly dismissed the relevance of the United Nations, criticizing multilateral systems as ineffective and outdated. The United States had reduced participation in several international bodies and increasingly emphasized unilateral power.
But as the Hormuz crisis intensified, the rhetoric changed dramatically. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently emphasized the importance of the United Nations and suggested that maritime disputes surrounding Hormuz should be addressed through international mechanisms and peaceful diplomacy. The same system previously dismissed as ineffective suddenly became essential once military escalation failed to deliver decisive outcomes.
This reversal illustrates a deeper truth about the emerging global order: even superpowers ultimately require rules, institutions, and diplomacy when raw force reaches its limits.
The conflict also exposed extraordinary contradictions in international conduct. Iran was repeatedly described as an aggressor for restricting maritime access in Hormuz, while many across the world pointed to previous unilateral military actions carried out elsewhere without international authorization. Competing narratives dominated global media every day. One day the war was about nuclear weapons, the next day about regional security, then about maritime freedom, and later about protecting commerce. The justifications evolved constantly because the realities on the ground kept changing.
Amid this confusion, Pakistan quietly positioned itself not as a military actor but as a stabilizing diplomatic bridge. A country often underestimated in global power calculations emerged as one of the few states capable of communicating credibly with all major stakeholders—Washington, Tehran, Beijing, and the Gulf capitals simultaneously.
That achievement carries enormous significance. Had the conflict continued escalating unchecked, the consequences could have become catastrophic. A fully closed Hormuz Strait might have triggered oil prices well beyond previous crisis peaks, devastated global transportation systems, collapsed fragile supply chains, and pushed multiple economies into recession simultaneously. The trillions potentially saved through de-escalation cannot be measured only in stock market rebounds or lower fuel costs; they include avoided unemployment, avoided inflationary spirals, avoided industrial shutdowns, and perhaps even avoidance of a broader regional war.
Today, the world stands at a fragile crossroads. The ceasefire remains conditional, mistrust remains deep, and no permanent agreement has yet been finalized. Risks continue to hover over the Gulf, and shipping companies still view the region as dangerous. But for now, diplomacy has temporarily succeeded where confrontation failed.
And in that diplomatic success, Pakistan’s role has emerged as one of the most consequential and least acknowledged developments of the entire crisis.
The world may eventually recognize that while great powers fought for dominance, it was careful diplomacy from an unexpected mediator that helped prevent economic disaster and pulled humanity one step back from the edge of a far wider war.

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How Pakistan Outmaneuvered a Superpower

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The most striking development in the unfolding U.S.–Iran crisis is not the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, nor the sudden emergence of overland trade corridors—it is the calculated silence of Donald Trump. When directly asked whether he was aware that Pakistan had opened land routes enabling Iran to bypass the naval blockade and continue trade with China and other partners, the President did not deny it, condemn it, or even express concern. Instead, he acknowledged that he knew “everything” about the arrangement and pivoted to praise Pakistan’s leadership. No warning, no sanctions threat, no diplomatic protest—just silence wrapped in approval. In geopolitics, such silence is never accidental; it is policy in its most refined form.
This tacit acceptance has now become the central fact shaping the narrative. Pakistan’s decision to activate six overland trade corridors into Iran on April 25, 2026, is no longer just a regional economic maneuver. It is a move taking place with the full awareness—and arguably the quiet consent—of Washington. The implications are profound. What was initially portrayed as a logistical workaround to clear more than 3,000 stranded containers at Karachi and Port Qasim has evolved into a strategic reconfiguration of global trade flows under the shadow of great-power competition.
The corridors, linking Pakistan’s ports of Karachi, Port Qasim, and Gwadar to Iranian border crossings at Gabd and Taftan, have effectively neutralized the immediate economic impact of the U.S. naval blockade. By shifting cargo from sea to land, Pakistan has created a parallel supply chain that cannot be intercepted by naval forces. Travel time from Gwadar to the Iranian border has been reduced to just a few hours, and transport costs have dropped significantly. In practical terms, the blockade’s ability to strangle Iran’s economy has been diluted, if not outright undermined.
Yet the deeper question is why Washington has chosen not to act against this development. The answer lies in the complex web of interdependencies that define the current global order. At the center of this web is China. As one of the largest consumers of Iranian oil, China’s economic stability is closely tied to uninterrupted energy supplies. Any attempt by the United States to fully enforce the blockade by targeting overland routes through Pakistan would risk triggering a broader confrontation with Beijing.
China’s leverage is not theoretical. Its dominance in the production and export of rare earth minerals—critical components for advanced electronics, defense systems, and renewable technologies—gives it the capacity to inflict significant economic pain on the United States. A disruption in these supply chains would directly impact American industries, particularly at a time when defense production is operating at full capacity. In this context, the U.S. President’s silence can be interpreted as a strategic compromise: allow limited economic flows to continue through Pakistan rather than provoke a retaliatory response from China that could destabilize the global economy.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has emerged as the pivotal actor in this evolving scenario. Under the leadership of Shehbaz Sharif and with the strategic backing of Asim Munir, Islamabad has positioned itself at the intersection of competing interests. It is simultaneously mediating between Washington and Tehran, facilitating trade that sustains Iran’s economy, and enabling energy flows that support China’s growth. This is not a contradiction; it is a deliberate strategy.
Critics have labeled Pakistan’s approach as duplicity, accusing it of playing a “double game.” But such assessments overlook the sophistication of Pakistan’s balancing act. In a world increasingly defined by multipolarity, survival depends on the ability to engage with multiple power centers without becoming subordinate to any single one. Pakistan’s actions reflect an understanding that rigid alignment is less valuable than strategic flexibility.
Iran’s response to the blockade further underscores this shift. Confronted with maritime restrictions, Tehran has accelerated its pivot toward overland connectivity. The visits of Abbas Araghchi to Islamabad, Moscow, and other regional capitals are part of a broader effort to construct an alternative economic architecture. By integrating with Pakistan’s transport networks and leveraging Chinese infrastructure under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Iran is building resilience against external pressure.
This transformation is not occurring in isolation. Russia’s engagement, particularly through frameworks like the International North-South Transport Corridor, adds another layer of complexity. Together, these initiatives are creating a lattice of overland routes that challenge the dominance of traditional maritime trade. The Strait of Hormuz, once the uncontested artery of global energy flows, is no longer the sole gateway. Geography is being reimagined, and with it, the balance of power.
The United States, despite its formidable naval capabilities, finds itself constrained by these emerging realities. The blockade, while effective in raising costs and disrupting shipping, cannot fully contain a network that extends across land borders and sovereign territories. Each new corridor, each new partnership, erodes the efficacy of coercive measures. The question is no longer whether the blockade can pressure Iran, but whether it can be sustained in the face of adaptive resistance.
Pakistan’s role in this process has also altered regional dynamics. By providing a direct land bridge to Iran, Islamabad has reduced its reliance on routes through Afghanistan, where relations have deteriorated. This shift not only enhances Pakistan’s strategic autonomy but also redefines its economic geography. It is becoming a conduit not just for trade, but for influence—linking South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and China in a single, interconnected framework.
At the same time, the risks are significant. Security challenges in Balochistan, tensions along the Afghan border, and the broader volatility of the region could threaten the stability of these corridors. Moreover, the exclusion of Indian-origin goods from transit routes highlights the enduring impact of geopolitical rivalries. Connectivity, while transformative, is not immune to conflict.
Nevertheless, the broader trajectory is clear. The opening of overland routes into Iran represents a shift from a unipolar system, where maritime dominance dictated outcomes, to a more complex, multipolar landscape where adaptability and connectivity determine success. Pakistan’s actions, far from being a mere logistical adjustment, are emblematic of this transition.
In this context, the silence of the U.S. President takes on even greater significance. It is not simply a lack of response; it is an acknowledgment of limits. It reflects an understanding that in a world of interdependent powers, absolute control is neither feasible nor desirable. By choosing not to confront Pakistan’s initiative, Washington is implicitly accepting a new equilibrium—one in which influence is negotiated rather than imposed.
For Pakistan, this moment represents a culmination of strategic foresight and opportunism. By leveraging its geography, infrastructure, and diplomatic relationships, it has carved out a role that extends beyond its traditional boundaries. It is no longer a peripheral player but a central node in the evolving global order.
The story of these corridors, therefore, is not just about trade or transport. It is about the redefinition of power in the 21st century. It is about how nations adapt to constraints, exploit opportunities, and navigate the complexities of a world where alliances are fluid and interests intersect. And above all, it is about how a single moment of silence—from the most powerful office in the world—can reveal more than a thousand words ever could.

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