Pakistan News
Pakistan’s Impregnable Strategic Deterrence
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The story of Pakistan and India’s strategic rivalry is as old as the two nations themselves. Since their creation in 1947, both countries have fought multiple wars, engaged in intense military standoffs, and maintained a constant state of strategic vigilance. While the battles on the field ended decades ago, the competition in defense, deterrence, and doctrine continues in full force. At the heart of this enduring standoff lies a surprising reality: despite being smaller in size, economy, and military resources, Pakistan has managed to establish a credible strategic balance with its much larger neighbor, India. This balance has not only deterred war but has stabilized the region in the shadow of recurring crises.
India, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion and an economy nearing $4 trillion, has clear quantitative advantages over Pakistan, whose population is around 250 million and economy hovers near $341 billion. On paper, India outmatches Pakistan in nearly every conventional military metric—from troop strength and defense budget to the volume of arms imports and defense-industrial capacity. However, Pakistan, through strategic ingenuity, tactical precision, and smart resource allocation, has achieved what military theorists term as a “kinetic strategic balance.”
To understand how such balance is achieved, especially between asymmetrical powers, one must examine the strategic balance formula developed and widely accepted among military analysts and defense planners. It is expressed as:
{Strategic Balance} = \frac{M_1}{M_2}
where “M” represents the overall military capability of each state, derived from multiplying five core factors:
M = F \Q \T \E \N
In this equation:
F stands for force size, which includes not only the number of active duty soldiers but also reserve personnel and paramilitary forces.
Q reflects the quality of weapons and equipment, taking into account technological sophistication, modernity, and battlefield effectiveness.
T represents the training and doctrinal maturity of the armed forces, their readiness, discipline, and capacity to execute strategies under pressure.
E signifies economic capacity—the ability of a country to sustain military operations over time, fund innovations, and manage logistics.
N measures nuclear capability, including the size, delivery mechanisms, and credibility of the nuclear deterrent.
Let’s apply this formula to India and Pakistan using approximate and normalized scales. India’s overall active military personnel number around 1.45 million, supplemented by an additional million in reserves and another million-plus in paramilitary units. Pakistan maintains roughly 654,000 active troops, 550,000 in reserve, and nearly half a million paramilitary personnel. On a scale of 1 to 10, India’s force size scores a 10 while Pakistan’s earns around 6.5.
In terms of weapon quality, India operates advanced systems such as Rafale fighter jets, S-400 air defense systems, and is building up a blue-water navy. Pakistan relies on a diversified mix of Chinese, American, and Turkish platforms, with domestic capabilities like the JF-17 fighter jet and Babur cruise missiles. India’s score on this scale would be around 8, with Pakistan close behind at 6.5.
Training and doctrine are where Pakistan edges closer to parity. Over decades of direct and indirect conflict, Pakistan’s military has evolved into a highly professional, strategically nimble force. It has effectively adopted doctrines of hybrid warfare, swift retaliation, and nuclear ambiguity. India’s larger forces sometimes suffer from organizational inertia, though efforts at modernization are ongoing. On this front, Pakistan may rate an 8, while India scores a 7.
Economically, the gap is stark. India’s economy is nearly ten times larger than Pakistan’s, and its defense budget—exceeding $83 billion—dwarfs Pakistan’s $9.6 billion allocation. This difference affects everything from procurement cycles to research and development capacity. On this scale, India scores a full 10, while Pakistan reasonably scores about 3.
Finally, the nuclear equation offers one of the most stabilizing forces in the strategic balance. India is believed to possess around 164 nuclear warheads with the capability to deliver them via air, land, and potentially sea. Pakistan holds an estimated 170 nuclear warheads and has developed tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr missile system to deter India’s “Cold Start” doctrine. Both countries score roughly equal in nuclear capability at 8.5 each, though with different strategic philosophies—India embracing “No First Use” and Pakistan maintaining deliberate ambiguity.
When we multiply these normalized scores, India’s kinetic military capability index amounts to:
10.8.7.10.8.5 = 47,600
Pakistan’s equivalent score is:
6.5.6.5.8.3.8.5 = 9,004
The final ratio, therefore, is:
{47,600}/{9,004}=approx 5.3
This 5.3:1 balance heavily favors India in pure kinetic potential. Yet, military history and modern strategic thinking teach us that war is not determined by ratios alone. The question is not just whether one side can win—but whether it can win without unacceptable costs. And it is precisely here that Pakistan has succeeded in establishing deterrence. Its nuclear capability, doctrinal evolution, and war-readiness have made it abundantly clear that any full-scale Indian aggression would invite unbearable retaliation, regardless of conventional superiority.
The long peace since the 1971 war is a testament to this equilibrium. Even the 1999 Kargil conflict, initiated by Pakistani forces, remained limited in scope and quickly drew international mediation. Afterward, both countries adopted more robust postures: India developed doctrines for rapid retaliation, while Pakistan responded with battlefield nuclear readiness. The result has been a tense yet stable balance—volatile at the surface, but deeply anchored in mutual deterrence.
To illustrate this concept more clearly, we can compare it to the relationship between the United States and Canada. The U.S., with a defense budget over $850 billion and global power projection capabilities, is militarily incomparable to Canada, which spends under $30 billion and does not possess nuclear weapons. Yet, the two nations have enjoyed peaceful borders and extensive defense cooperation for over a century. Canada does not attempt to match U.S. military capabilities but instead relies on institutional trust, shared values, and alliance structures like NORAD and NATO. It has deterrence not through power parity, but through political and structural integration.
In contrast, Pakistan has no alliance structure with India, no institutional trust, and no history of mutual defense. It must therefore achieve balance through direct capability and posture—especially nuclear. And despite overwhelming asymmetry on paper, Pakistan’s strategic deterrence has worked. It has denied India the ability to impose its will militarily without facing existential risks in return.
In the final analysis, strategic balance is less about overpowering an adversary and more about rendering war unthinkable. Pakistan’s success in creating this balance—despite economic challenges and numerical inferiority—demonstrates that military deterrence is not reserved for the rich or powerful. It is a function of clarity, innovation, and above all, credibility. The kinetic balance formula, when correctly understood and applied, offers not just a measure of military might—but a blueprint for peace through proportional deterrence.
Pakistan News
KASHMIR SOLIDARITY DAY AND HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATION IN INDIAN-OCUPIED JAMMU AND KASHMIR
Consulate General of Pakistan, Los Angeles (USA)
Akhtar Hussain Sandhu
California (USA)
Every year, 5th February is observed as Kashmir Solidarity Day in Pakistan, Kashmir, and in different parts of the world where Pakistanis are residing. The main purpose of observing the day is to honor the freedom struggle of the Kashmiri people against the human rights violations in the Indian-occupied Jammu & Kashmir. It also aims at highlighting the human rights violations by the Indian government and the forces to attract the world community’s attention to the plight of the Muslims. Pakistan supports this struggle for its right to self-determination as enunciated in the United Nations’ charter (Articles 1(2) and 55) and the pledge of a plebiscite in Kashmir made by the Indian government. The Consulate General of Pakistan, Los Angeles (USA), arranged a meeting on 4 February 2026 in which the Muslims and Sikhs participated to express their solidarity with the people of Jammu & Kashmir. Consul General Asim Ai Khan inaugurated the session with the messages of the President, Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister of Pakistan.
Asim Ali Khan introduced the audience to the background and importance of 5th February. He reiterated the national stance of the Pakistani government that they would always support the Kashmiri freedom struggle and would condemn the brutality of the Indian armed forces in the Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. This was my first appearance as a speaker at an official event, and the arrangements and the audience’s deep interest in Pakistan’s state narrative encouraged me to believe that one day the struggle of the Kashmiri people will bring a shining dawn for posterity. Besides Asim Ali Khan, the host, eminent journalist Arif Zaffar Mansuri, Dr. Akhtar Hussain Sandhu, Sultan Ahmed, and Ismail Keekibhai expressed their concern about the ongoing suffering of the Kashmiri people and pledged full support from the Pakistani government and people. Arif Mansuri said that the international community ought to come forward to rescue the oppressed from the Indian forces and their inhuman treatment of the innocent Muslims of the Indian-occupied J&K. The program was conducted by a talented young girl, Asma Khan, who beautifully started and ended the seminar. she played a documentary which highlighted beauty of the valley, facts and figures of the martyrs and brutality of the BJP government. Sultan Ahmad, with an impressive administrative and political portfolio in the US, reminded the audience to spread this message at a higher level and that he would be a helping hand in exposing India’s nefarious intentions and human rights violations. I had been invited by Mubashir Khan (Deputy Consul General), but he was in Pakistan, so we could not meet on the occasion. I shared my view that this is a dilemma of human history: humans inflict barbarity upon humans. But the redeeming aspect is that humans endeavor to support the oppressed and condemn the aggressor. Humans ensure and restore peace. It is often perceived that philosophical and technological advanceshaveopened new avenues for conflict resolution and appeasement. Fatality of the wars experienced especially during the 20th century made the world realize to establish a forum of reconciliation, the League of Nations and United Nations, to block the way to future wars and violence settling the dispute through dialogue and negotiations. Civil society organizations, universities, peace-loving projects, published material, and media keep on highlighting the importance of peace, coexistence, interfaith harmony, minority rights, protection of vulnerable social groups, including minority, women, children and the aged, but despite all this exhortation, we see inhuman treatment and brutality in many parts of the world. Look at Jammu & Kashmir administered by India, wherein the innocent Muslims are going through ordeals such as torture, sexual violence, extrajudicial killing, ban of expression, detention, unjustifiable deployment of Indian forces, and psychological hammering. No human ethics and international humanitarian laws allow this maltreatment and repressive measures that the people of Jammu & Kashmir have been experiencing for many decades. The BJP government changed the political and geographical status of Jammu & Kashmir after the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A on 5 August 2019, depriving J&K of its Special Sovereign Status. Although it is never welcomed by the majority of the Kashmiri people but the Indian government did not listen to the people of J&K. Even the Indian Supreme Court on 11 December 2023 upheld the government’s revocation of 370 and 35A and gave observation, JK had no internal sovereignty after its ‘accession’ to India although‘accession’ is a disputed issue and the matter is still pending in the UN. Many dissidents were imprisoned and many have been facing police and court cases. The Indian governments concluded laws, acts such as Public Safety Act and even amendments to justify their repressive and oppressive attitude. Amnesty International expressed concern over the arrests of Muslim and Hindu leaders. Pakistan is usually blamed by the Indian government for supporting the Kashmiri Muslims, but why were the Hindu leaders arrested by the Indian government? This is to prove that even the Hindus support the Pakistan’s stance on the issue of human rights. The Americans have just celebrated Martin Luther King, Jr.’s day with the message that ‘violence breeds more violence’ and ‘unjust laws are laws at all… and it is a moral duty to defy the unjust laws,’ therefore, the Americans ought to defy unjust laws which are contradictory to human or natural rights.’ Right now, the people of Indian-Occupied Jammu & Kashmir are victims of unjust laws and inhuman treatment by the BJP government. Not only Muslims of the Indian-Occupied J&K, but also the Christians, Achhoot, and Sikhs are also undergoing cruel and ill-treatment. Investigation concludes that the Indian-sponsored killing squad assassinated and targeted the Sikh leaders in England, Canada, Pakistan and the US. It is a moral obligation of the international community to redeem the oppressed people from the tyrannical and dictatorial rule of the Indian government under the Bhartiya Janata Party. Moreover, I do appreciate the international organizations and countries which raise their voice against the violation of human rights in Indian-Occupied J&K as yes, the oppressed Kashmiri people do need the international support in the name of humanity so that the coming generations of the valley can be saved from such a physical torture and mental agony. The world community should become the voice of the voiceless people and ensure the following:
- Withdrawal of the Indian armed forces from the Indian-occupied J&K must be ensured immediately so that the people can live a normal and peaceful life.
- The autonomous status of the Indian-Occupied J&K should be restored to what it was in 2019. Intention to change the demography of the valley must be blocked, and property once owned by the local Kashmiris must be returned to the previous Kashmiri owners.
- A UN resolution to hold a plebiscite in Kashmir is the best way to determine the will of the people.
- An inquiry under the UN umbrella should be conducted to investigate police and court cases against locals in the valley. The findings should be made public so that the world can come to know what brutality has been inflicted upon the innocent people of Indian-occupied J&K.
- The civil society organizations, media people, and UN delegations should be facilitated to visit the region to collect the facts relating to abuse of authority, violence, torture, ban on expression and religious rituals, presence of the Indian army, and police cases against the youth. Fake encounters should also be stopped, and the judicial proceedings should be monitored by the UN emissary.
Consul General Asim Ai Khan thanked the scholars and audience. At the end of the program, Navdeep Singh and I presented the 3rd edition of my book, Punjab: An Anatomy of Muslim-Sikh Politics, to Consul General Asim Ai Khan. All the participants gathered in the hall and shared their thought on the subject with each other. This was a great day that sensitized many Muslim and Sikh people about international politics and the violation of human rights in different regions of the world. If this generation plans to convert the world into a peaceful place for posterity, they will have to condemn state violence and extremism existing anywhere in the world.
Pakistan News
When Institutions Survive, but Citizens Do Not
By Raza Syed
The smoke has cleared from the ruins of the Khadijatul Kubra Mosque, but the acrid stench of failure now hangs over the entire capital.
In a grotesque escalation of the sectarian bloodshed that has scarred Pakistan for decades, a suicide bomber detonated explosives inside the Khadijatul Kubra Mosque also known as the Tarlai Imambargah in southeastern Islamabad’s Tarlai Kalan area during Friday prayers, slaughtering at least 31 worshippers and wounding over 169 others. The blast, which targeted a Shia congregation in one of the capital’s ostensibly secure outskirts, transformed a sacred haven into a slaughterhouse of rubble, blood, and anguish, with debris strewn across the prayer hall and frantic rescuers pulling mangled bodies from the wreckage.
Eyewitnesses recounted scenes of unmitigated horror: survivors staggering through smoke-filled chaos, screaming for aid as the acrid stench of explosives mingled with cries of the dying. Hospitals across the city, including major facilities like the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences, declared emergencies, overwhelmed by the surge of critically injured victims—many with shrapnel wounds, burns, and traumatic amputations. Initial reports underestimated the carnage at 10-20 fatalities, but the toll climbed relentlessly to 31 as more bodies were unearthed from the debris, a grim tally that underscores not just the attack’s lethality but the state’s sluggish response. Preliminary investigations suggest the perpetrator was a suicide bomber, possibly a foreign national affiliated with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), groups infamous for their genocidal campaigns against Shia minorities. No group has claimed responsibility, but the fingerprints of these extremists are unmistakable in a nation where sectarian hatred festers unchecked.
This atrocity is no mere “isolated incident”it is a searing indictment of the Shehbaz Sharif government’s catastrophic incompetence, a regime that prioritizes political survival over the sanctity of human life. For years, Pakistan’s Shia community, comprising roughly 20% of the population, has endured a relentless barrage of targeted violence, with mosques and religious processions turned into killing fields by militant outfits like the TTP and its splinter factions. The 2023 Peshawar mosque bombing, which obliterated over 100 lives inside a purportedly fortified police compound, should have been the catalyst for sweeping reforms. Instead, it revealed the same festering decay: intelligence blackouts, woefully inadequate protections for vulnerable sites, and a government entangled in political intrigue rather than resolute counter terrorism.
Today’s carnage in Islamabad, the epicenter of national power, housing federal institutions, foreign embassies, and military bastions—lays bare the depths of this negligence. Despite a labyrinth of checkpoints, surveillance networks, and patrols that ostensibly safeguard the elite, a bomber infiltrated a mosque during peak prayers, exposing a security perimeter as porous as it is performative. Shia leaders had issued repeated alerts about escalating threats, including suspicious loitering around religious sites, yet security provisions remained superficial at best. The Islamabad Police’s delayed arrival, hampered by “jurisdictional hurdles” in a city engineered for rapid response, is nothing short of criminal dereliction. How could explosives breach the capital’s defenses? The answer reeks of misplaced priorities: billions siphoned into military escapades against phantom external foes, while domestic militancy thrives amid economic collapse and political paralysis.
In the ghastly aftermath, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari offered the nation the same scripted liturgy of grief. Their words—”heinous,” “barbaric,” “unacceptable”—are the empty echoes of ghosts, leaders who rule from behind bulletproof glass, utterly disconnected from the terror experienced by citizens who simply wish to pray in peace. What is the value of a “full force” that mobilizes only after the screams have faded? What is the meaning of “resolve” demonstrated solely in press releases? The people see the truth: a government that can lockdown an entire city to arrest a political rival cannot secure a single house of worship. A security apparatus that functions with ruthless efficiency to guard the corridors of power goes lethally dormant when the powerless are threatened.
Law enforcement institutions, gorged on taxpayer funds yet riddled with corruption and cronyism, share the bloodstained blame. The Punjab Police and federal agencies boast a sordid history of dismissing minority pleas for safeguards, as evidenced by assaults on Ahmadiyya mosques where officers have not only failed to intervene but occasionally spearheaded the vandalism. In this latest outrage, social media erupts with righteous fury: users decry the government’s “helpless spectator” posture, with one post lamenting the “Shia vs Sunni bloodbath” and another spotlighting the soaring death toll while interrogating how such a “deadly explosion” could pierce a “secured” capital. X feeds pulse with outrage, one viral clip capturing worshippers in shock outside the mosque, a verified testament to the blast’s immediacy. These digital laments amplify a national scream: Why do checkpoints proliferate for VIP convoys while mosques remain death traps?
At the apex of this institutional rot stands Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, whose stewardship of internal security has proven disastrously inept. Appointed in March 2024 amid controversy over his media empire and concurrent role as chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board, Naqvi’s divided loyalties symbolize the government’s frivolity—prioritizing cricket spectacles over countering terror. Under his watch, intelligence coordination has crumbled, surveillance gaps have widened, and minority protections have evaporated. His ministry’s “reviews” and “task forces” post-attack are mere theater, cosmetic bandages on a hemorrhaging wound. Naqvi’s failure to fortify places of worship, despite documented spikes in militant activity spilling from Afghanistan’s borders, borders on malfeasance. How many more massacres must stain his tenure before accountability bites?
The journalistic corps must confront its own complicity. Too frequently, media giants regurgitate official spin, smothering tales of systemic collapse beneath tabloid sensationalism. We demand unyielding scrutiny: independent inquiries that pierce the veil of “ongoing investigations” destined for dusty shelves, not perfunctory probes that vanish into the ether.
This explosion transcends tragedy; it is the crimson yield of protracted governmental apathy, law enforcement’s collusion, and ministerial ineptitude. As Islamabad grieves under a pall of fear—vigils flickering amid cordons, communities bracing for reprisals—the stark query looms: How many innocents must perish before Pakistan’s overlords reckon with their culpability? The capital, meant to embody stability and justice, now symbolizes fragility and betrayal. Cosmetic lockdowns and aerial drones offer no salve; what the nation craves is a seismic overhaul—dismantling terror networks, shielding minorities, and purging the corrupt. Anything less dishonors the dead and courts further apocalypse. The fuse is lit; the reckoning must ignite reform, or watch the republic burn.
Pakistan News
Balochistan Stands Firm Against Terror Security Forces Crush Coordinated Militant Assault
ISPR, Rawalpindi
On 31 January 2026, terrorists of Indian sponsored Fitna al Hindustan attempted to disturb peace of Balochistan by conducting multiple terrorist activities around Quetta, Mastung, Nushki, Dalbandin, Kharan, Panjgur, Tump, Gwadar and Pasni.
On behest of their foreign masters, these cowardly acts of terrorism were aimed at disrupting the lives of local populace and development of Balochistan by targeting innocent civilians in District Gwadar and Kharan, wherein, terrorists maliciously targeted eighteen innocent civilians (including women, children, elderly and labours) who embraced Shahadat.
Security Forces and Law Enforcement Agencies being fully alert immediately responded and successfully thwarted the evil design of terrorists displaying unwavering courage and professional excellence. Our valiant troops carried out engagement of terrorists with precision and after prolong, intense and daring clearance operation across Balochistan, sent ninety two terrorists including three suicide bombers to hell, ensuring security and protection of local populace.
Tragically, during clearance operations and intense standoffs, fifteen brave sons of soil, having fought gallantly, made the ultimate sacrifice and embraced shahadat.
Sanitization operations in these areas are being continuously conducted and the instigators, perpetrators, facilitators and abettors of these heinous and cowardly acts, targeting innocent civilians and Law Enforcement Agencies personals, will be brought to Justice.
Intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attacks were orchestrated and directed by terrorists ring leaders operating from outside Pakistan, who were in direct
communication with the terrorists throughout the incident.
Earlier on 30 January, forty one terrorists of Fitna al Hindustan and Fitna al Khwarij were killed in Panjgur and Harnai. With these successful operations in last two days, the total number of terrorists killed in the ongoing operations in Balochistan has reached one hundred and thirty three.
Sanitization operations are being conducted to eliminate any other Indian sponsored terrorist found in the area. Relentless Counter Terrorism campaign under vision “Azm e Istehkam” (as approved by Federal Apex Committee on National Action Plan) by Security Forces and Law Enforcement Agencies of Pakistan will continue at full pace to wipe out menace of foreign sponsored and supported terrorism from the country.
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