war
Iran’s Strategic Victory Without a Battlefield
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : War is not always decided by the side that fires the first missile. Sometimes it is decided by the side that convinces its adversary that pulling the trigger would cost more than standing down. In the current standoff between the United States and Iran, this quieter form of victory is precisely what Tehran has achieved. Despite overwhelming American military superiority, despite aircraft carriers moving into the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean, and despite the familiar language of deterrence and coercion, Iran has so far prevented a direct U.S. attack. This outcome is not accidental, nor is it a product of fear or retreat on Iran’s part. It is the result of a calculated, multidimensional strategy that exploits global fatigue with war, fractures within Western alliances, domestic pressures inside the United States, and the irreversible shift toward a multipolar world.
If one were sitting in the Oval Office today, faced with the question of whether to strike Iran or step back, the decision would be far more complex than the raw military balance suggests. Iran is not Iraq in 2003, nor Libya in 2011. It is a large, populous, geographically fortified state with deep historical memory, layered alliances, and a proven capacity to absorb pressure while slowly turning it back on its adversaries.
From a purely military perspective, the United States could inflict serious damage on Iranian infrastructure. But timing matters. Any attack launched in the midst of an ongoing Gaza war would instantly fuse multiple theaters into a single regional confrontation. Hezbollah’s posture in Lebanon, Hamas’s survival despite months of bombardment, and the latent activation potential of Iraqi, Syrian, and Yemeni fronts mean escalation would not remain contained. A strike on Iran would not be a discrete operation; it would be a spark in a room filled with gas.
Target selection presents an even deeper dilemma. Hitting nuclear facilities risks regional environmental catastrophe and global economic shock. Targeting leadership would validate Iran’s long-standing narrative of external regime-change attempts and almost certainly unify the population rather than fracture it. Striking conventional military assets might satisfy tactical logic but would fail strategically, as Iran’s doctrine relies on dispersion, redundancy, and asymmetry rather than centralized command structures. In every scenario, the United States would be initiating a conflict whose second and third-order consequences are unknowable, but whose costs are guaranteed.
Economically, the calculus is equally unforgiving. Iran’s strength lies not in its economy but in its ability to disrupt the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoint, and even limited instability there would send oil prices soaring. At a moment when global supply chains are already strained and inflation remains politically toxic in Western democracies, voluntarily triggering an energy shock would be an act of strategic self-harm. Europe, already grappling with immigration pressures, industrial decline, and political fragmentation, has made it clear it will not sign up for another Middle Eastern war that destabilizes markets and fuels domestic unrest. NATO’s reluctance is not ideological; it is existential.
The geopolitical environment further constrains Washington. China views Iran not as a client, but as a critical node in its energy security and Belt-and-Road connectivity. Russia, locked in its own confrontation with the West, has every incentive to see American attention and resources diverted. Neither power needs to intervene militarily to shape outcomes; their diplomatic backing and economic engagement alone raise the cost of American escalation. The Islamic world, meanwhile, is no longer passive. Iran’s framing of resistance, sovereignty, and selective engagement resonates across Muslim societies that see double standards in how nuclear weapons, occupation, and self-defense are judged.
Perhaps most underestimated is Iran’s mastery of narrative warfare. While Washington mobilizes fleets, Tehran mobilizes legitimacy. Iran’s leadership has projected calm, consistency, and defiance without theatrical bravado. There have been no panic signals, no evacuations, no visible fear. This composure matters. It signals confidence not only to allies but to adversaries, suggesting that Iran has already priced in escalation and prepared accordingly.
In contrast, the United States has struggled to manage its own information environment. The most sustained criticism of a potential war with Iran has not come from foreign governments but from within American society itself. Journalists, academics, activists, and digital influencers have shaped a narrative that questions priorities, hypocrisy, and moral credibility. Protests in cities like Minneapolis are not isolated events; they are symptoms of a deeper crisis of legitimacy. When citizens see naval armadas deployed abroad while domestic grievances remain unresolved, the contrast becomes politically explosive.
This internal pressure fundamentally alters presidential decision-making. Any move toward war would have to be justified not only to Congress and allies but to a skeptical public that remembers Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all too well. The optics of defending foreign demonstrators or foreign governments while struggling to reconcile divisions at home weaken the moral authority required for sustained military action.
Recent American actions elsewhere have only amplified this skepticism. Aggressive posturing toward Venezuela, including overt regime-change rhetoric and economic coercion, has drawn condemnation both internationally and domestically. Instead of reinforcing U.S. leadership, these actions have reinforced perceptions of overreach and selective application of international norms. Each such episode chips away at the credibility needed to rally support for another confrontation.
Against this backdrop, Iran’s refusal to accept externally imposed limits on its missile range or to hand over uranium stockpiles is not mere obstinacy; it is a defense of sovereign equality. The contrast with Israel, which possesses an undeclared nuclear arsenal outside international inspection regimes, is not lost on global audiences. The inconsistency in demands underscores Iran’s argument that the issue is not nonproliferation, but power hierarchy.
Iran’s internal resilience also matters. The Iranian political system was born from mass mobilization, not foreign installation. This history shapes both governance and resistance. The leadership understands that legitimacy flows inward, not outward. That same awareness explains why Iran has focused on endurance rather than provocation, on patience rather than panic.
If one were advising a U.S. president today, the pressures would converge toward restraint. Escalation risks regional war, economic shock, alliance fracture, and domestic backlash. De-escalation risks a perceived loss of face, but that loss is temporary and largely symbolic. War, by contrast, would be irreversible.
This is where Iran’s success becomes evident. By refusing to be baited, by maintaining strategic calm, by aligning itself with broader global trends toward multipolarity, and by allowing the contradictions of American power to surface on their own, Iran has so far won without firing a shot. The fleets can linger, statements can harden, but as long as the trigger is not pulled, the outcome speaks for itself.
In the end, power is not only the ability to destroy, but the ability to compel restraint in an adversary who possesses far greater destructive capacity. By that measure, Iran’s achievement is significant. It has transformed imminence into hesitation, pressure into paralysis, and threat into debate. For a superpower accustomed to dictating terms, hesitation itself becomes the story. And for a regional power long assumed to be on the defensive, survival without submission becomes a form of victory.
The greatest irony is that Iran’s success exposes a deeper truth about the current world order: brute force no longer guarantees compliance, and credibility cannot be enforced by aircraft carriers alone. In a world shaped by narrative, networks, and multipolar constraints, restraint can be the most powerful weapon of all.
Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The war in the Middle East has now moved far beyond the battlefield. What initially appeared as a regional military confrontation has evolved into a systemic global crisis—one that is tightening its grip not only on governments and markets, but on ordinary people struggling to sustain daily life. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with targeted disruption of oil infrastructure, has triggered a cascading breakdown across energy supply chains, aviation networks, and tourism-dependent economies. The world is no longer merely watching a war; it is experiencing its economic consequences in real time.
At the center of this unfolding crisis lies the global jet fuel market—a sector often overlooked in geopolitical analysis, yet one that sustains the arteries of globalization. Prior to the conflict, global jet fuel demand had recovered strongly, reaching approximately 107 billion gallons annually in 2024, with projections climbing to nearly 7.2 million barrels per day by early 2026. This demand was supported by a finely balanced supply network spanning North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Today, that balance has been violently disrupted.
The Middle East, which typically contributes around 20% of global jet fuel supply, has seen a dramatic collapse in its effective output. War-related damage to refineries, combined with the strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has removed an estimated 320,000 tons of jet fuel per day from global circulation. At the same time, approximately 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity across the الخليج region has either been shut down or rendered inoperable. This is not a marginal disruption—it is a structural shock to the global energy system.
Jet fuel prices have responded accordingly. Within weeks, prices surged from approximately $85–90 per barrel to well above $200, representing one of the sharpest increases in modern energy market history. For the aviation industry, where fuel accounts for up to one-third of operating costs, this is nothing short of catastrophic. Airlines are no longer operating in a demand-driven environment; they are navigating a survival crisis defined by cost pressures and supply scarcity.
The impact is most visible in Europe, where the aviation sector—and by extension, the tourism economy—is deeply exposed. Europe imports roughly 25–30% of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf. With supply lines disrupted, airlines have begun aggressive capacity cuts. Major carriers have canceled thousands of flights ahead of the critical summer season. Lufthansa alone has reportedly removed tens of thousands of flights from its schedule, while other carriers are grounding aircraft, optimizing routes, and operating only essential services.
This contraction strikes at the heart of Europe’s economic model. Tourism is not a peripheral sector; it is a foundational pillar. The continent generates between $600 and $700 billion annually from tourism, supporting millions of jobs and contributing significantly to GDP in countries such as Spain, Italy, France, and Greece. This entire ecosystem depends on affordable, reliable air travel. Without it, hotels remain empty, restaurants lose customers, and entire regional economies begin to contract.
The crisis is not confined to Europe. In Asia-Pacific, where airlines depend heavily on Middle Eastern fuel flows, the situation is even more acute. Carriers have entered emergency operational modes, securing limited fuel supplies and preparing for prolonged disruption. Even in the United States—buffered by its status as a major producer—airlines face massive financial strain. Leading carriers have warned of billions of dollars in additional fuel costs, threatening profitability and forcing difficult operational decisions.
What makes this crisis particularly dangerous is its compounding nature. Aviation is not only about passenger mobility; it is a critical component of global trade. High-value goods, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive cargo depend on air freight. As flight capacity shrinks, supply chains tighten, prices rise, and inflationary pressures intensify. Indeed, energy analysts have already warned that this crisis could add nearly 0.8% to global inflation—an alarming figure in an already fragile economic environment.
Meanwhile, the maritime dimension of the conflict is adding further instability. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, has become a contested zone. Tankers are being intercepted, diverted, and in some cases seized. Insurance costs have soared, discouraging shipping companies from entering the region. Even where fuel is available, the ability to transport it safely has become uncertain.
China’s position offers a temporary buffer but not immunity. With substantial strategic reserves and a diversified energy portfolio, including large-scale investments in renewable energy, China can withstand short-term shocks. However, as the world’s manufacturing hub, any prolonged disruption will inevitably impact its output. A slowdown in Chinese production would have global consequences, affecting supply chains and economic growth worldwide.
This brings into focus a critical strategic question: what is the underlying objective of this disruption? One interpretation—gaining increasing traction—is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a byproduct of conflict, but a strategic lever. By constraining Middle Eastern supply, global demand is redirected toward alternative producers, most notably the United States. Over the past decade, the U.S. has transformed into a leading exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas. In a constrained market, its leverage increases significantly.
For Iran, the situation presents a profound strategic dilemma. Maintaining the closure of the Strait exerts pressure on adversaries but simultaneously inflicts economic pain on the wider world. Reopening the waterway, on the other hand, could reposition Iran as a stabilizing force while exposing the broader dynamics at play. It would restore global supply flows, ease economic pressures, and potentially shift international opinion.
From a strategic standpoint, reopening Hormuz could neutralize the leverage derived from disruption. It would deny the United States to exploit scarcity and would reestablish a degree of economic normalcy. More importantly, it would demonstrate that stability—not disruption—is the stronger strategic position in an interconnected global system.
The world today is facing more than an energy crisis. It is confronting the fragility of a system built on uninterrupted flows—of fuel, goods, people, and capital. When one critical node collapses, the effects ripple outward, disrupting industries and livelihoods across continents.
If the current trajectory continues, the consequences will be severe. Aviation networks may contract further, tourism economies could enter recession, and global trade may slow significantly. Inflationary pressures will rise, and economic uncertainty will deepen. What began as a regional conflict risks becoming a global economic turning point.
The solution lies not in escalation, but in recalibration. Restoring the free flow of energy through critical waterways, stabilizing supply chains, and reengaging in meaningful diplomacy are essential steps. The alternative is a prolonged period of economic disruption with far-reaching consequences.
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a geographic chokepoint. It has become the pivot on which the global economy now turns.
There is No Way to Peace, Peace is the Way
Akhtar Hussain Sandhu
Chicago (USA)
Iran-US War and Islamabad peace facilitation prompt me to recall the famous quotes of Abraham Johannes Muste, a US-based civil rights and anti-nuclear-weapons activist. To him, nothing can lead to peace, but peace, in fact, facilitates a positive change in relations therefore, not circumstances or ways, but ‘peace’ itself proves a nucleus of attention in the crisis-packed situation in a society or world. Social scientists usually count the factors and circumstances leading to peace in a conflict at the societal and international level, but A. J. Muste believes that ‘peace’ is the greatest force that attracts rival protagonists to create understanding and end conflict. A. J. Muste opposed World War I and the US-Vietnam War and also opposed nuclear weaponry. He worked zealously and nonviolently for labor rights and civil liberties in the United States. The US-Israel led war against Iran on 28 February 2026 caused a catastrophic results and the continuous bombing destroyed Iran’s civil infrastructure, and approximately 180 schoolgirls were killed in an aerial attack. It was condemned by the masses in the US and other countries. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz as a war tactic, which created a global oil crisis, and all countries’ economies experienced an overnight major setback. The US President changed his initial war objectives and focused on the reopening of the Hormuz because multiple nations were bashing the US President for his unethical war mongering ambition, which caused the energy crisis. US President Donald Trump first decided to isolate the US from this dangerous drive and declared that the affected countries should send their troops to open this sea route for their vessels, but in April 2026, he issued a furious statement that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would be eliminated from the earth. It caused panic in the world because this message meant a nuclear attack on Iran. If it happened, any power could justify the use of nuclear weapons against the rival country, and the world could be an unsafe and hellish place. It could also convince every country, including Iran, to have nuclear weapons in future because having nuclear weaponry was to be left as the only option to survive against a rival nuclear power. However, Pakistan, China, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, enjoying cordial relations with the US and Iran, ultimately brought a truce of two weeks, and both countries consented to dialogue in Islamabad on 10 April. Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, PM Mian Shahbaz Sharif, and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar from Pakistan played a pivotal role in the ongoing parleys between the rival leaders. The ceasefire created an environment in which both camps claimed victory, and both seemed busy proving their military strength and muscles, but despite all, they are heading towards peace through dialogue. Threatening Statements by the US President even before a day before the negotiations is an evidence that the agreement (if it is concluded) would be presented as Iran’s surrender before the US might. A. J. Muste quotes that not circumstances, but ‘peace’ itself pushed the rival forces away from the battlefield. Once, a reporter questioned his presence as a protest in front of the White House: ” Can you change the White House? A. J. Muste replied. ‘I don’t do this to change the country. I do this so the country would not change me.’ The ruling elite always use the name of ‘state’ to change the people as it desires, but the state’s predilections change with the passage of time; therefore, to curb the citizens proves havoc for the social fabric. Dissatisfied masses can hardly produce a beneficial human resource that truly serves a nation. A. J. Must says that the problem after a war is that the victor shows the fight has brought a bright future, and war has paid the nation a lot. In their perception, the war was a new form of reform that would ensure prosperity and psychological pride for the people. Iran and the USA have both been claiming victories and asserting that the conflict has brought blessings. Both countries closed their eyes to the human sufferings and loss of innocent lives, wealth, economy, infrastructure, and hatred generated against each other. Peace proved its importance and motivated them to approach the neutral countries for a ceasefire, which means the war had crippled both the rivals to the extent that they were unable to talk even of ‘peace’, which shows the weakness and impotency of the so-called victors. A. J. Muste opines that no big power in the war accepts itself as an aggressor; instead, it is always the rival that is the aggressor.’ However, I think that every fighting country thinks of itself as a big force, therefore both become ‘big powers’ under their own justifications. Look at the arguments of the US and Iran that have been justifying their righteousness and aggression toward the rival according to their own national narratives. None of them is ready to accept any lapse on the side. Perhaps it happens amid internal and external threats to the political leadership, who twist events and arguments to secure their political position and national morale. This is another form of stress and aggression against peace, humanity, and righteousness. For example, many US military and other officials refused to attack Iran who must be consulted about their current thinking on their decision. A. J. Muste says that peace is impossible if people are only concerned with peace. A war is an outcome of different ways of life. If people desire to attack war, they have to attack that way of life.’ A. J. Muste here can be disagreed because way of life is always different, which does not mean to be in a battlefield all the time. I think he wants to say that if people dislike war, they should change their vision to one of living in societies with divergent ways of life. This quote reflects Muste’s desire that prosperity and civil liberties can change society, and by this, war maneuvering can be suffocated. AJ Must was a member of the Fellowship of Reconciliation in the US, which struggled against war hysteria and the violation of civil liberties and for labor rights. He delivered lectures in different universities on the nonviolent struggle for rights. He joined the Montgomery Bus Boycott, led by Martin Luther King, Jr., in 1955. A. J. Muste’s struggle is still admired by Americans and Europeans because he worked selflessly for humanity, peace, and the dignity of all races.
Writer is a US-based Historian & Colmunist
9 April 2026
war
PM Shehbaz, Starmer Hold Key Call on Regional Security UK Backs Pakistan’s Peace Initiatives and Ceasefire Efforts
Prime Minister’s Office
Media Wing
ISLAMABAD: 10 April 2026.
Prime Minister’s Telephone Call with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom
Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif received a telephone call from Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, His Excellency Keir Starmer, this evening.
Prime Minister Starmer deeply appreciated Pakistan’s effective diplomatic efforts in facilitating the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, and the resumption of dialogue. He felicitated Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif on hosting the peace negotiations in Islamabad and offered his best wishes for the success of this endeavor.
Reaffirming Pakistan’s sincere commitment to regional peace and stability, Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the joint statement issued by key European and international leaders, including Prime Minister Starmer, endorsing Pakistan’s peace initiatives.
Both leaders emphasized the importance of ensuring that the ceasefire remains in place and creates the necessary conditions for lasting peace and stability in the region.
The two leaders agreed to work together to lend fresh impetus to the longstanding friendly ties between Pakistan and the United Kingdom, across all spheres of mutual interest.
The Prime Minister reiterated his cordial invitation to Prime Minister Starmer to undertake an official visit to Pakistan.
Navruz & Timur’s Empire: A Kaleidoscope of Cultures Blooms at Uzbekistan’s University of Journalism
How Iran War Is Grounding the World Economy
Trump’s Shadow War Against China
-
Europe News1 year agoChaos and unproven theories surround Tates’ release from Romania
-
American News1 year agoTrump expands exemptions from Canada and Mexico tariffs
-
American News1 year agoTrump Expels Zelensky from the White House
-
Pakistan News10 months agoComprehensive Analysis Report-The Faranian National Conference on Maritime Affairs-By Kashif Firaz Ahmed
-
American News1 year agoZelensky bruised but upbeat after diplomatic whirlwind
-
Art & Culture1 year agoThe Indian film showing the bride’s ‘humiliation’ in arranged marriage
-
Pakistan News1 year agoCan Pakistan be a Hard State?
-
Entertainment1 year agoChampions Trophy: Pakistan aim to defend coveted title as historic tournament kicks off today