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Pakistan’s Impregnable Strategic Deterrence

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : The story of Pakistan and India’s strategic rivalry is as old as the two nations themselves. Since their creation in 1947, both countries have fought multiple wars, engaged in intense military standoffs, and maintained a constant state of strategic vigilance. While the battles on the field ended decades ago, the competition in defense, deterrence, and doctrine continues in full force. At the heart of this enduring standoff lies a surprising reality: despite being smaller in size, economy, and military resources, Pakistan has managed to establish a credible strategic balance with its much larger neighbor, India. This balance has not only deterred war but has stabilized the region in the shadow of recurring crises.
India, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion and an economy nearing $4 trillion, has clear quantitative advantages over Pakistan, whose population is around 250 million and economy hovers near $341 billion. On paper, India outmatches Pakistan in nearly every conventional military metric—from troop strength and defense budget to the volume of arms imports and defense-industrial capacity. However, Pakistan, through strategic ingenuity, tactical precision, and smart resource allocation, has achieved what military theorists term as a “kinetic strategic balance.”
To understand how such balance is achieved, especially between asymmetrical powers, one must examine the strategic balance formula developed and widely accepted among military analysts and defense planners. It is expressed as:
{Strategic Balance} = \frac{M_1}{M_2}
where “M” represents the overall military capability of each state, derived from multiplying five core factors:
M = F \Q \T \E \N
In this equation:
F stands for force size, which includes not only the number of active duty soldiers but also reserve personnel and paramilitary forces.
Q reflects the quality of weapons and equipment, taking into account technological sophistication, modernity, and battlefield effectiveness.
T represents the training and doctrinal maturity of the armed forces, their readiness, discipline, and capacity to execute strategies under pressure.
E signifies economic capacity—the ability of a country to sustain military operations over time, fund innovations, and manage logistics.
N measures nuclear capability, including the size, delivery mechanisms, and credibility of the nuclear deterrent.
Let’s apply this formula to India and Pakistan using approximate and normalized scales. India’s overall active military personnel number around 1.45 million, supplemented by an additional million in reserves and another million-plus in paramilitary units. Pakistan maintains roughly 654,000 active troops, 550,000 in reserve, and nearly half a million paramilitary personnel. On a scale of 1 to 10, India’s force size scores a 10 while Pakistan’s earns around 6.5.
In terms of weapon quality, India operates advanced systems such as Rafale fighter jets, S-400 air defense systems, and is building up a blue-water navy. Pakistan relies on a diversified mix of Chinese, American, and Turkish platforms, with domestic capabilities like the JF-17 fighter jet and Babur cruise missiles. India’s score on this scale would be around 8, with Pakistan close behind at 6.5.
Training and doctrine are where Pakistan edges closer to parity. Over decades of direct and indirect conflict, Pakistan’s military has evolved into a highly professional, strategically nimble force. It has effectively adopted doctrines of hybrid warfare, swift retaliation, and nuclear ambiguity. India’s larger forces sometimes suffer from organizational inertia, though efforts at modernization are ongoing. On this front, Pakistan may rate an 8, while India scores a 7.
Economically, the gap is stark. India’s economy is nearly ten times larger than Pakistan’s, and its defense budget—exceeding $83 billion—dwarfs Pakistan’s $9.6 billion allocation. This difference affects everything from procurement cycles to research and development capacity. On this scale, India scores a full 10, while Pakistan reasonably scores about 3.
Finally, the nuclear equation offers one of the most stabilizing forces in the strategic balance. India is believed to possess around 164 nuclear warheads with the capability to deliver them via air, land, and potentially sea. Pakistan holds an estimated 170 nuclear warheads and has developed tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr missile system to deter India’s “Cold Start” doctrine. Both countries score roughly equal in nuclear capability at 8.5 each, though with different strategic philosophies—India embracing “No First Use” and Pakistan maintaining deliberate ambiguity.
When we multiply these normalized scores, India’s kinetic military capability index amounts to:
10.8.7.10.8.5 = 47,600
Pakistan’s equivalent score is:
6.5.6.5.8.3.8.5 = 9,004
The final ratio, therefore, is:
{47,600}/{9,004}=approx 5.3
This 5.3:1 balance heavily favors India in pure kinetic potential. Yet, military history and modern strategic thinking teach us that war is not determined by ratios alone. The question is not just whether one side can win—but whether it can win without unacceptable costs. And it is precisely here that Pakistan has succeeded in establishing deterrence. Its nuclear capability, doctrinal evolution, and war-readiness have made it abundantly clear that any full-scale Indian aggression would invite unbearable retaliation, regardless of conventional superiority.
The long peace since the 1971 war is a testament to this equilibrium. Even the 1999 Kargil conflict, initiated by Pakistani forces, remained limited in scope and quickly drew international mediation. Afterward, both countries adopted more robust postures: India developed doctrines for rapid retaliation, while Pakistan responded with battlefield nuclear readiness. The result has been a tense yet stable balance—volatile at the surface, but deeply anchored in mutual deterrence.
To illustrate this concept more clearly, we can compare it to the relationship between the United States and Canada. The U.S., with a defense budget over $850 billion and global power projection capabilities, is militarily incomparable to Canada, which spends under $30 billion and does not possess nuclear weapons. Yet, the two nations have enjoyed peaceful borders and extensive defense cooperation for over a century. Canada does not attempt to match U.S. military capabilities but instead relies on institutional trust, shared values, and alliance structures like NORAD and NATO. It has deterrence not through power parity, but through political and structural integration.
In contrast, Pakistan has no alliance structure with India, no institutional trust, and no history of mutual defense. It must therefore achieve balance through direct capability and posture—especially nuclear. And despite overwhelming asymmetry on paper, Pakistan’s strategic deterrence has worked. It has denied India the ability to impose its will militarily without facing existential risks in return.
In the final analysis, strategic balance is less about overpowering an adversary and more about rendering war unthinkable. Pakistan’s success in creating this balance—despite economic challenges and numerical inferiority—demonstrates that military deterrence is not reserved for the rich or powerful. It is a function of clarity, innovation, and above all, credibility. The kinetic balance formula, when correctly understood and applied, offers not just a measure of military might—but a blueprint for peace through proportional deterrence.

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Balochistan Stands Firm Against Terror Security Forces Crush Coordinated Militant Assault

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ISPR, Rawalpindi

On 31 January 2026, terrorists of Indian sponsored Fitna al Hindustan attempted to disturb peace of Balochistan by conducting multiple terrorist activities around Quetta, Mastung, Nushki, Dalbandin, Kharan, Panjgur, Tump, Gwadar and Pasni.

On behest of their foreign masters, these cowardly acts of terrorism were aimed at disrupting the lives of local populace and development of Balochistan by targeting innocent civilians in District Gwadar and Kharan, wherein, terrorists maliciously targeted eighteen innocent civilians (including women, children, elderly and labours) who embraced Shahadat.

Security Forces and Law Enforcement Agencies being fully alert immediately responded and successfully thwarted the evil design of terrorists displaying unwavering courage and professional excellence. Our valiant troops carried out engagement of terrorists with precision and after prolong, intense and daring clearance operation across Balochistan, sent ninety two terrorists including three suicide bombers to hell, ensuring security and protection of local populace.

Tragically, during clearance operations and intense standoffs, fifteen brave sons of soil, having fought gallantly, made the ultimate sacrifice and embraced shahadat.

Sanitization operations in these areas are being continuously conducted and the instigators, perpetrators, facilitators and abettors of these heinous and cowardly acts, targeting innocent civilians and Law Enforcement Agencies personals, will be brought to Justice.

Intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attacks were orchestrated and directed by terrorists ring leaders operating from outside Pakistan, who were in direct
communication with the terrorists throughout the incident.

Earlier on 30 January, forty one terrorists of Fitna al Hindustan and Fitna al Khwarij were killed in Panjgur and Harnai. With these successful operations in last two days, the total number of terrorists killed in the ongoing operations in Balochistan has reached one hundred and thirty three.

Sanitization operations are being conducted to eliminate any other Indian sponsored terrorist found in the area. Relentless Counter Terrorism campaign under vision “Azm e Istehkam” (as approved by Federal Apex Committee on National Action Plan) by Security Forces and Law Enforcement Agencies of Pakistan will continue at full pace to wipe out menace of foreign sponsored and supported terrorism from the country.

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Pakistan’s Choices as Iran Faces a New Encirclement

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY) :- Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC Mr. Qamar Bashir analysis : Pakistan steered its ship with admirable composure during the “twelve-day war,” which began with Israel–U.S. strikes on Iranian military and nuclear-linked targets in mid-June 2025 and escalated into sustained exchanges that lasted nearly two weeks, ending with a ceasefire around June 24. What made those twelve days unforgettable was not only the intensity, but the symbolism: Iran’s missile and drone barrages repeatedly penetrated Israeli airspace, challenging the psychological aura surrounding Israel’s multi-layered defense architecture—systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling that the world had come to view as near-absolute protection.
During that first phase, Tehran discovered that many relationships celebrated in peacetime become conditional in wartime. India—despite years of strategic engagement with Iran and the economic logic of connectivity projects designed to reach Central Asia—did not step forward in a manner Tehran expected. For Iranian observers, this was not merely silence; it felt like calculated distance, shaped by India’s wider strategic alignments and its concern that any global momentum toward a Palestinian two-state framework could echo into renewed international scrutiny of Kashmir. The war thus exposed not only military fault lines, but diplomatic ones, revealing how quickly geopolitics can reorder loyalties when the costs of association rise.
Pakistan, in that first phase, stood out as a notable exception. Islamabad’s political and diplomatic signaling leaned toward defending Iran’s sovereignty and opposing external aggression, a posture framed by regional media as meaningful support and a source of goodwill. Pakistan appeared willing to risk diplomatic discomfort to stand with a neighbor under direct attack, reinforcing a narrative of fraternal ties rooted in geography, culture, and shared historical memory. That moment, however, belonged to a specific kind of conflict—short, explosive, and bounded by the logic of rapid escalation and de-escalation.
The second phase is of a different character altogether. On January 23, 2026, President Donald Trump publicly confirmed that a U.S. armada was moving toward the Middle East, with major naval assets shifting into the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean as Washington framed the deployment around Iran’s internal unrest and the regime’s response to protests. This was not the sudden blaze of a twelve-day exchange; it was the slow, visible architecture of pressure—presence, signaling, and endurance.
In this new moment, Pakistan’s dilemma sharpens. The cost of being misunderstood becomes higher, the penalties of miscalculation more enduring. Islamabad must now decide how to protect its neighborhood, its economy, and its strategic credibility without turning itself into a battlefield, a base, or a bargaining chip in a contest far larger than any single state.
This complexity is deepened by Pakistan’s Middle East relationships. Beyond Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s economic and financial space has long been underpinned by Gulf cooperation through investment flows, energy arrangements, and vast remittance networks tied to Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Yet this support exists within a regional context where many Gulf states view Iran not only as a strategic competitor but also as a religious and political rival, accusing Tehran of deepening sectarian divides and projecting influence through proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine. In this environment, overt Pakistani alignment with Iran would be more likely to unsettle Gulf capitals than reassure them, potentially narrowing Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic room for maneuver.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan’s first choice is open support for Iran—diplomatic, material, and, if forced by circumstances, kinetic. The appeal lies in moral clarity and neighborhood logic. Iran is a neighbor whose stability directly affects Pakistan’s western frontier, border security, and internal cohesion. Open support would reassure Tehran that it is not alone again, strengthening long-term trust and potentially discouraging any future strategic drift that could expose Pakistan’s flank. The cost, however, is immediate and tangible. Visible alignment against Washington risks economic retaliation, pressure through international financial channels, and political isolation in forums where U.S. influence remains decisive, while also unsettling Gulf partners who see Iran through a lens of rivalry rather than fraternity.
The second choice is alignment with the United States and Israel—offering cooperation that could include intelligence sharing, logistical facilitation, or strategic access. This path promises short-term diplomatic favor and potential financial relief, but it is the most combustible domestically and regionally. It would inflame public sentiment, sharpen sectarian and political tensions, and almost certainly provoke Iranian hostility in ways that could destabilize Pakistan’s western borderlands. The strategic blowback could be generational, recasting Pakistan’s image across the Muslim world and entangling it in a conflict whose objectives and endgame are not of its own making.
The third choice is declared neutrality. Pakistan would step back, deny its soil and airspace for conflict, and consistently call for de-escalation. The advantage is immediate insulation. Neutrality reduces the risk of becoming a direct target and preserves working channels with all parties. Yet neutrality in a pressure campaign can become a quiet punishment. Iran may still feel abandoned and revise its trust calculus. Washington may interpret restraint as passive resistance and still apply economic pressure. India could frame Pakistan as irrelevant or opportunistic while consolidating its own partnerships. Neutrality can be a shield, but it can also become an empty space others fill with their own narratives.
The fourth choice is calibrated dual-track strategy. Pakistan avoids loud, provocative rhetoric that triggers U.S. retaliation while quietly extending the maximum permissible support to Iran behind the curtain of diplomacy. This is survival statecraft in a world where economies can be choked without a single missile launched. The advantage is strategic breathing room: Pakistan preserves its financial and diplomatic channels while preventing Iran from feeling strategically orphaned. The risk is fragility. If exposed, secrecy can produce the worst of both worlds—U.S. anger without the protection of honesty and Iranian disappointment if the help appears too cautious or insufficient.
The fifth choice is multilateral internationalization—pushing the crisis into formal global forums such as the United Nations, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and ad hoc contact groups involving China, Russia, Turkey, and key European states. Instead of positioning itself as a bilateral actor between Tehran and Washington, Pakistan frames itself as a convener and agenda-setter, shifting the burden of mediation, legitimacy, and pressure onto a wider coalition. The advantage is dilution of risk. Decisions and outcomes no longer rest on Pakistan’s shoulders alone, and the crisis is embedded in a global framework that makes unilateral escalation politically costlier. The downside is loss of speed and influence. Multilateral processes are slow, consensus-driven, and often shaped by great-power rivalries that can stall momentum at the very moments when urgency is greatest.
These five paths do not exist in isolation; they overlap, collide, and constrain one another. Pakistan cannot fully embrace one without partially touching the others. Open support for Iran strains Gulf and Western ties. Alignment with Washington risks regional backlash. Neutrality invites suspicion from all sides. Dual-track strategy demands discipline and secrecy. Multilateralization trades immediacy for legitimacy. The art of statecraft lies not in choosing a single lane, but in sequencing these options in a way that preserves room to maneuver as circumstances evolve.
The most sustainable course for Pakistan lies in a disciplined blend of the fourth and fifth choices, anchored by the language of the third. Declared neutrality in public posture provides a shield against direct retaliation. Active, quiet stabilization with Iran preserves neighborly trust and reduces the risk of border spillover, refugee flows, and proxy escalation. Multilateral engagement internationalizes the crisis, embedding it in legal and diplomatic frameworks that slow the march toward unilateral coercion. At the same time, Pakistan must maintain cordial, pragmatic, and economically constructive relations with Washington, carefully calibrating its actions and rhetoric to avoid triggering sanctions or financial pressures that could further strain an already fragile economic landscape.
The twelve-day war proved that old myths can break and that “friends” can vanish when bombs fall. The January 23 mobilization proves something else: pressure campaigns are built to last, and nations survive them through balance, not bravado. Pakistan’s victory will not be found in loud slogans or reckless entanglement. It will be measured in its ability to protect its economy, preserve its Gulf lifelines, prevent western-border chaos, stand close enough to Iran to preserve brotherhood, far enough from provocation to deny adversaries a pretext for retaliation, and engaged enough with the world to ensure that when the region’s future is negotiated, Pakistan is not merely present, but heard.

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Ambassador Mumtaz Zahra Baloch addressed the Association of Pakistani Francophone Professionals

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Paris (Imran Y. CHOUDHRY):- Ambassador of Pakistan Madam Mumtaz Zahra Baloch addressed the Association of Pakistani Francophone Professionals at an event held at the Embassy of Pakistan in Paris, France.

Speaking on the occasion, the Ambassador outlined the multifaceted relations between Pakistan and France and the wider francophone world. She stated that while Governments create frameworks and agreements, it is the people professionals, academics, entrepreneurs, and civil society leaders, who give life to bilateral relationships between countries.

Ambassador appreciated the work of PPRF and its contribution in promoting professional networking and cultural exchanges between the Francophone Pakistanis and the French society and thus strengthening people-to-people links between Pakistan and France.

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